Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

   Valid 061700Z - 071200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
   MEXICO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
   KANSAS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA...

   Expanded the elevated area into southern Nevada as morning guidance
   has been much more aggressive with elevated to critical conditions
   across this region late this afternoon and evening. Also, added an
   isolated dry thunderstorm area for eastern Nevada and western Utah.
   Storm coverage will likely be scattered and forecast soundings show
   PWAT between 0.6 and 0.7 with storm motions around 30 mph. Storm
   clustering may support more of a wet storm mode, but the moderate
   storm motion and the presence of a dry sub-cloud layer will still
   support some threat for lightning starts. 

   Made a slight expansion of the critical into north central Arizona
   and southern Utah based on morning high resolution guidance, but
   otherwise no changes to the AZ/NM critical area.

   Expanded the critical area into western Kansas as strong 25 to 30
   mph surface winds appear likely with relative humidity around 20
   percent.

   ..Bentley.. 06/06/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020/

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad upper-level troughing will develop over the West with the
   upper high shifting eastward over the Mid Mississippi Valley. A
   strong, negatively tilted upper-level shortwave trough will move
   from the Desert Southwest northeastward over the Rockies today. A
   surface low will develop over central/eastern Montana with troughing
   extending southward across the southern High Plains and a cold front
   pushing southeast across the Pacific Northwest.

   ...Four Corners and High Plains...
   Critical conditions are expected to develop across eastern Arizona
   and western New Mexico as 50-75 mph mid-level flow overspreads the
   area. Gradient winds and boundary layer mixing of stronger winds
   from aloft will result in southwest sustained surface winds of 20-30
   mph amid minimum RH of 5-15%. Critical conditions are also expected
   across portions of eastern Colorado/vicinity as the mid-level jet
   moves overhead and lee troughing develops. Critical conditions may
   spread into northeast New Mexico as well. Of particular concern is
   the ongoing lightning tonight and on previous days across these
   areas that will experience elevated/critical conditions today.

   The northern/eastern extent of critical/elevated conditions around
   the Four Corners region will be modulated by where convective
   initiation takes place this morning. Elevated conditions are also
   expected across the central/southern High Plains and the eastern
   extent of these conditions will depend on the location of the lee
   trough and convection across the area.

   Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to start early today across
   New Mexico and eventually spread onto the southern/central High
   Plains by the afternoon. While some higher precipitable water values
   may be present (0.8-1 inch), a dry sub cloud layer and fast storm
   motions (40-50+ mph) will limit wetting rains. 

   ...Western Nevada...
   Elevated/critical conditions are expected across portions of western
   Nevada and possibly extending into central Nevada today. Westerly
   downslope winds of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 10-20% are likely
   through the afternoon. Ongoing lightning tonight and previous
   lightning over the past week may provide ignition sources.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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