Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1024 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

   Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

   Much of the forecast remains on track. In addition, a couple of
   lightning flashes have recently been noted with isolated
   thunderstorms across central New Mexico, in association with an
   upper-level low. As the upper low progresses eastward, a couple
   additional dry strikes will be possible across northernmost portions
   of the elevated area. Fuels, albeit marginally receptive, appear
   sub-optimal for lightning induced ignitions, precluding an isolated
   dry thunderstorm area.

   Dry surface conditions will otherwise prevail across the Mid
   Atlantic, promoting the continued curing of finer fuels across the
   region. The current marginally receptive state of fuels, cool
   temperatures, and lack of stronger surface winds precludes an
   elevated delineation for the Mid Atlantic.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020/

   ...Synopsis...
   Guidance suggests that fire-weather potential will continue to be
   concentrated across the southern High Plains.  A low-level cyclone
   will organize across the Texas Panhandle/southwest Kansas and
   vicinity and a trough will sharpen from the eastern Texas Panhandle
   south-southwestward to the Big Bend region.  A pronounced dry sector
   will develop west of this trough, resulting in elevated fire-weather
   conditions.

   ...Eastern New Mexico and western portions of Texas...
   Heating and vertical mixing processes will result in widespread
   areas of 25-35 mph westerly surface flow across the entire region,
   with wind speeds peaking during mid-afternoon to early evening. 
   Surface temperatures rising into the 60s and low 70s F will foster
   25-35% RH values as well, with pockets of lower RH values likely
   where stronger insolation can occur amidst mid-level clouds.  These
   conditions are consistent with elevated fire-weather criteria
   especially where fuels are dry.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0104 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   Much of the forecast remains on track. Critical surface wind/RH
   conditions are still expected across much of eastern New Mexico to
   the Texas border. However, fuels remain too marginally receptive to
   promote major wildfire spread, with critical delineations withheld.

   Similar to Day 1, dry conditions will persist across the eastern Mid
   Atlantic, but the present marginal fuel status, cooler temperatures,
   and overall weak surface winds precludes an elevated delineation.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020/

   ...Synopsis...
   A lead wave will dampen while ejecting northeastward toward the
   Mid-Mississippi Valley while another wave and powerful mid-level jet
   evolves from the northern Rockies toward the southern High Plains. 
   As this occurs, another lee cyclone will organize across the Texas
   South Plains and result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather
   conditions, particularly across eastern New Mexico.

   ...Eastern New Mexico...
   25-35 mph westerly surface winds will once again develop across
   portions of the New Mexico Plains southward into portions of the
   TransPecos during the afternoon.  Meanwhile, surface heating will
   allow for temperatures to rise into the 60s and low 70s as RH values
   fall into the 10-15% range areawide (slightly higher with southward
   extent).  While these conditions will ordinarily support a critical
   fire-weather threat, concerns exist regarding fuels states and ERCs
   - especially with the potential for showers across the region on
   D1/Sun.  Finer fuels may support a risk of fire spread, though they
   may not cure enough to support a critical delineation.  This aspect
   of the forecast will be reevaluated in later outlooks.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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