Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Fri, 23-Aug-2019 10:35am MDT

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Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook	Weather Advisories and Warnings National Wildland Fire Activity Map

Day 1 fire weather outlook and map Day 2 fire weather outlook and map
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track. The ongoing elevated area has been expanded slightly across portions of south-central Nevada and into northeast Arizona, based on the potential for wind/RH conditions (coinciding with receptive fuels) as depicted in the latest high resolution guidance. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Karstens.. 08/23/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough currently positioned over the southwest Montana vicinity will progress eastward into the central High Plains today. On the back side of this trough, enhanced mid-level flow will be present over parts of southwestern Wyoming into Utah and eastern Nevada. Potential for elevated fire weather conditions will exist from the Great Divide Basin, western Colorado, and portions of the southern Great Basin. In these locations, 15-20 mph surface winds and 5-20% afternoon RH are probable. Two factors introduce some uncertainty to how widespread these elevated conditions will be: 1) a weakening surface pressure gradient throughout the day and 2) potential for mid/upper-level clouds over portions of Utah/Nevada during the afternoon. Current position of dry air aloft on water vapor satellite imagery would indicate that it may only overlap portions of western Colorado during the afternoon, which is also supported by model forecast soundings. Nonetheless, several areas will see at least briefly elevated conditions with potential for locally critical conditions in terrain-favored locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... On D2/Saturday, a strong mid-level jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest with the nose of the jet impinging upon the northern Great Basin/central Rockies. Critical fire weather will be most likely for portions of the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming. In these locations, terrain-enhanced downslope flow will promote 20-25 mph winds with 10-15% afternoon RH. Upper and potentially mid-level clouds will again be a factor in stunting afternoon heating/boundary-layer mixing, which will likely limit the spatial extent of the critical fire weather threat. Surrounding portions of the northern Great Basin and central Rockies will see elevated fire weather conditions, with similar afternoon RH but winds generally in the 15-20 mph range. ..Wendt.. 08/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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