Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1108 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

   Valid 141700Z - 151200Z

   ...Central High Plains...
   The elevated fire weather area over portions of Wyoming and
   northwest Colorado has been extended eastward across southeast
   Wyoming, northeast Colorado, and western Nebraska. While fuels
   receptiveness has remained uncertain-to-very marginal over these
   areas the last several days owing to recent snowfall (and subsequent
   snow melt), recent fuel guidance suggests fuels -- especially fine
   fuels -- have dried enough to support large fire spread.

   Surface observations at 16Z from KEHY/KRWL/KSAA/KCYS as well as the
   RTMA suggest elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions
   are already ongoing across portions of southern Wyoming, with 15-20
   mph sustained surface winds and RH values around 15-20%. Strongly
   considered upgrading parts of southern Wyoming to Critical with this
   update, as critical meteorological conditions are likely for at
   least a few hours this afternoon. However, the overall lack of fuels
   (where the strongest winds are expected) and somewhat marginal fuel
   receptiveness precluded upgrading.

   ...South-central Colorado...
   An elevated fire weather area was introduced across portions of
   south-central Colorado (including in the vicinity of the Decker
   Fire). Here, the latest ensemble guidance indicates several hours of
   elevated to near critical fire weather conditions resulting from
   gusty downslope gap winds amidst a very dry low-level air mass. The
   worst conditions (i.e., sustained winds near 20 mph and gusts to
   30+) are expected from 12 pm - 5 pm MDT.

   Please see previous discussion below for more information on today's
   fire weather forecast.

   ..Elliott.. 10/14/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/

   ...Synopsis...
   A progressive shortwave trough will drop southeastward from Alberta
   into the northern Rockies today. This feature will amplify through
   the period. Farther south, a shortwave trough within the subtropical
   jetstream will move through the southwest, weakening with time. At
   the surface, lee troughing, deepening the most in the north, will
   occur within the High Plains. A cold front will make fairly rapid
   progress southward through the northern/central Rockies and into the
   central Plains by the end of the period.

   ...Southern Wyoming and northwest Colorado...
   The combination of the approaching surface trough/cold front and
   strong mid-level flow aloft will lead to 15-20+ mph winds across
   southern Wyoming and portions of northwest Colorado. Afternoon RH
   within the lower elevations will reach 10-20%. Critical
   meteorological conditions are probable in portions of southern
   Wyoming, but between lack of fuels and marginal fuel dryness, large
   fire spread potential is low enough that a critical area will not be
   introduced.

   ...Decker Fire in south-central Colorado...
   An uptick in fire activity is possible as areas of localized
   downslope flow reach 15-20 mph over very dry fuels. RH during the
   afternoon will fall to 15-20%. The main uncertainty is the duration
   of elevated conditions.

   ...Parts of northeastern New Mexico...
   Locally elevated conditions may occur briefly during the afternoon,
   particularly where terrain enhances the surface flow. Winds of 15-20
   mph and RH of 15-20% during the afternoon should remain spatially
   and temporally confined and no elevated area will be introduced this
   outlook.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0134 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Surface high pressure will move into the central/southern Plains in
   the wake of a cold front on D2/Tuesday. Cooler temperatures and
   generally weak surface flow will limit potential for fire spread.
   Across much of the Intermountain West, dry air will remain in place,
   but weak flow at the surface and aloft will similarly limit
   concerns.

   ..Wendt.. 10/14/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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