Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Tue, 18-Jan-2022 10:05am MST

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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE BIG COUNTRY... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes made to the fire weather highlights. Sunny skies are supporting boundary-layer mixing, with RH percentages dropping into the 20s and sustained southwesterly surface winds increasing to 20 mph (with higher gusts noted). Continued heating will support 15-20 percent minimum RH and 20+ mph sustained southwesterly winds across the Critical area over the Texas Rolling Plains into the Big Country. The 12Z MAF, EPZ and ABQ observed soundings depict modest 850-600 mb moisture, which may progress eastward to the southern High Plains and mix down to the surface, subduing RH from dipping into solidly Critical territory across southwest TX. However, at least locally Critical conditions are still expected from the Caprock westward. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level disturbance, currently noted over southern California in early-morning water-vapor imagery, is forecast to translate eastward towards the southern Plains through the day. Strengthening zonal flow over the southern Rockies associated with this wave will deepen a surface low currently over the OK/TX Panhandles. A combination of a surface mass response and strengthening mid-level flow will support a swath of 15-25 mph winds from eastern NM into north-central TX and southwest OK. Boundary-layer mixing up to around 850 mb should support wind gusts between 25-35 mph. 00Z AMA and MAF soundings reveal a 1-3 km deep dry layer, and widespread dewpoints in the single digits/low teens across east NM/west TX suggest this dry air mass is fairly widespread. While modest moisture advection from the south is expected, westerly downslope winds will help maintain dry conditions across the TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Latest guidance suggests RH reductions to near 20% will be common west of a diffuse dryline, and a few locations may see RH values fall into the teens by late afternoon. Critical wind/RH conditions appear most likely to occur across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX, where diurnal warming under the low-level thermal ridge axis should be most favorably overlapped with strong low/mid-level flow. Outside of this region, breezy conditions with modestly dry RH are expected, and transient critical conditions may occur. To the northwest across the TX Panhandle, RH reductions into the teens appear likely, but winds should be somewhat weaker under the nearly stationary surface low. Latest fuel guidance continues to show region ERC values in the 80-90th percentile for mid-January, indicating receptive fuels that will support the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
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