NOAA fall outlook indicates a mild, potentially damp, fall for Colorado

NOAA Fall 2026 Outlook for Temperatures. (NOAA)
NOAA Fall 2026 Outlook for Temperatures. (NOAA)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released its three-month outlook for the upcoming meteorological fall that begins in less than two weeks. In it, the agency indicates Colorado will see continued mild temperatures but also increased chances for precipitation.

For temperatures, the agency gives most of Colorado a 33 to 40% chance of seeing above average temperatures. This would, unfortunately, continue with what we have experienced thus far this year.

In terms of precipitation, things do look a bit better. The three-month outlook indicates a 40 to 50% chance of above average levels for most of Colorado. Some areas north and east have a 33 to 40% chance.

There has been talk about an unusually strong El Niño developing that will impact the Northern Hemisphere. Its effects on Colorado, however, are less than clear. We are far inland and largely removed from ocean impacts.

However, El Niño does oftentimes result in greater than average snowfall for the southern and southwestern parts of the state. Further north, its effects are less predictable and we are more dependent on individual storms and the track they take.

NOAA Fall 2026 Outlook for Precipitation. (NOAA)
NOAA Fall 2026 Outlook for Precipitation. (NOAA)

Thornton’s weekend to offer up very warm temps, some chances for storms and showers

No break for the heat-weary residents of the city this weekend. We start off hot and then do cool, but only slightly.

Friday will see sunny skies above in the morning then some afternoon clouds. Highs will push to the upper 90s. The late afternoon brings just a slight chance for a thunderstorm. Friday night, it will be partly cloudy with lows in the mid-60s.

Saturday begins mostly sunny as we head for a high in the low to mid-90s. Late afternoon into evening we have a pretty good chance to see some thunderstorms and showers. Saturday night, storm chances continue until about 9:00pm and then taper off. It will be partly clear with lows is the low 60s.

Sunday’s weather will be much like Saturday’s. Mostly sunny skies start things off and highs will again be in the low to mid-90s. The afternoon and evening bring another chance for storms, albeit a bit less so. Sunday night it will be partly clear with lows in the mid-60s.

Have a great weekend!

August 16 to August 22: This week in Denver weather history

This Week in Denver Weather History

August is usually considered one of the calmer weather months in Denver but as our look back in weather history for this week shows, that isn’t always the case.  Thunderstorms and all their associated dangers – lightning, flooding, tornadoes and more – all present a very real danger even this time of year.

From the National Weather Service:

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In 1902…a thunderstorm produced west winds sustained to 48 mph with gusts to 60 mph…but only a trace of rain.

In 1952…a thunderstorm wind gust to 50 mph was recorded at Stapleton Airport.

In 1960…lightning struck a warehouse in central Denver… Causing 8 thousand dollars in damage to the building and stored electrical equipment.

In 1975…large hail…1 1/2 to 1 3/4 inches in diameter…fell about 4 miles north of Castle Rock.  Hail caused some minor damage in Aurora.  A funnel cloud was reported 25 miles east of Denver near Bennett.

In 1981…a tornado touched down briefly in open country just to the east of Aurora.  No damage was reported.

In 1982…a thunderstorm wind gust to 61 mph was recorded at Buckley Field in Aurora.  At the same time almost an inch of rain flooded and closed streets in south Aurora.  A women was hit by lightning just north of Denver.  A house in the area was also struck.

In 1985…a thunderstorm produced strong wind gusts over southern metro Denver.  One strong wind gust hit Cheery Creek Reservoir…capsizing a boat and drowning a man.  The wind gusts…clocked as high as 50 mph…also downed a few trees.

In 1989…1 3/4 inch diameter hail fell at Intercanyon in the foothills of Jefferson County.

In 1990…lightning caused minor damage to a south Aurora home.  No injuries were reported.

In 1994…strong thunderstorm winds caused damage in southern Weld County near Hudson and Fort Lupton.  Two mobile homes were destroyed and a few lost their roofs.  Up to 20 downed power poles and the destruction of two 115 thousand-volt towers caused widespread power outages.  Thunderstorm gust front winds from the north gusted to 48 mph at Stapleton International Airport.

In 2000…lightning ripped most of the roof from a home in southeast Aurora.  The bolt sparked a fire which destroyed the residence.  Damage was estimated at 250 thousand dollars.

In 2002…the temperature climbed to a maximum of 100 degrees setting a new record high for the date.

In 2003…a teenager was injured when he was struck by lightning while camping at Herman Lake…13 miles northwest of Georgetown.  The boy was knocked unconscious and suffered minor injuries.

In 2022…heavy rainfall produced extensive flooding in Broomfield. Six inches of water inundated a section of Highway 287. Bike paths were flooded along Rock Creek and near Spader Way near the Broomfield Events Center. Spader Way was closed due to flash flooding from 1st Avenue to DesCombes Drive. Storm totals up to 3.62 inches observed in the area. Bike paths flooded with several feet of water along Coal Creek in Lafayette and Rock Creek.

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In 1979…heavy thunderstorm rains on each of 4 consecutive days dumped a total of 2.62 inches of rain on Stapleton International Airport.  The heaviest rain…1.05 inches… On the 19th was accompanied by 1/4 inch diameter hail.

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In 1953…a tornado was sighted 8 miles east of Castle Rock. An unconfirmed tornado was sighted between Denver and Strasburg.  No damage was reported.

In 1963…heavy rain in southeast Denver…Englewood…and Littleton caused flooding of basements and streets.  Over 3.00 inches of rain fell at Cherry Creek Dam.  Lightning caused power failures.  The hardest hit areas were in north- central Denver.  A 12-year-old boy was swept into a conduit by a 3-foot high crest of water.  He was carried 125 feet through the waterway…but was unhurt.  Thunderstorm rainfall totaled only 0.24 inch at Stapleton Airport.

In 1972…a thunderstorm wind gust to 53 mph was recorded at Stapleton International Airport.  Strong winds also occurred in the Littleton area where several trees and utility poles were blown over and a number of windows broken.

In 1978…1 3/4 inch diameter hail was reported in Thornton.

In 1982…heavy rain occurred in the foothills southwest of Denver where 4.50 inches fell in 75 minutes between Evergreen and Conifer.  Nearby…2.66 inches of rain drenched the North Turkey Creek Canyon area in just 15 minutes.

In 1984…scattered slow moving thunderstorms dumped heavy rain across southern metro Denver.  The heavy rain caused some road washouts in Jefferson and Douglas counties.  A bridge was washed out in Douglas County.  Three inches of rain fell in just an hour at Castle Rock…causing heavy silt damage to a home and to nearby drainage ditches.

In 1988…a thunderstorm dumped 2 to 3 inches of rain in southeast Denver and adjacent areas of Arapahoe County in less than 90 minutes.  There was widespread street flooding…and I-25 was closed by 4 feet of water near its intersection with I-225 just south of Denver.  A flood control project in Arapahoe County at greenwood village sustained over 10 thousand dollars damage.  Up to 4 feet of water flooded some basements in the area.  Only 0.44 inch of rain fell at Stapleton International Airport.

In 1990…heavy thunderstorm rains over the Boulder creek and St. Vrain creek drainage basins caused many creeks and drainage ditches to rise in eastern Boulder and southwest Weld counties.  The high waters punched three 30-foot holes in the embankment of a drainage ditch…which traversed through the town of firestone…20 miles north of Denver. A sheet of water 2 to 3 feet deep rushed out onto the streets of firestone…forcing the evacuation of a trailer park and residents from 50 neighboring homes.  No injuries or serious damage occurred except for mud and water damage. Lightning struck and injured 4 construction workers standing in an Aurora field.  They received treatment for minor injuries at a local hospital.  Lightning also struck the roof of a Methodist church in central Denver… Knocking down the highest peak of the steeple.  A half dozen people were in the building…but no one was injured. Slow moving thunderstorms dumped 2 to 3 inches of rain over southeast Aurora in 90 minutes.  The heavy rain accumulated on the roof of a condominium clubhouse…causing the roof to collapse under the weight of the water.  Nearly 300 residents were evacuated from the 200-unit complex because of the structural damage.  The residents were allowed to return to their homes when it was determined the damage was confined to the clubhouse.  No injuries were reported.

In 1993…just west of Fort Lupton…thunderstorm winds blew the tin roof off a cattle shelter into a mobile home… Causing considerable damage to the mobile home.

In 1997…lightning struck a home in Castle Rock sparking a fire.  Damage was estimated at 20 thousand dollars.

In 2000…thunderstorms producing very heavy rain…up to 3.50 inches in spots…caused flooding and flash flooding across metro Denver.  In Commerce City…a 37-year-old firefighter drowned while attempting to rescue a stranded motorist on a flooded street.  The firefighter was wading through the water when he lost his footing and was sucked into a 10 foot deep culvert.  He was swept away before anyone could reach him.  Extensive flooding was also reported throughout Littleton and north Denver.

18 Continue reading August 16 to August 22: This week in Denver weather history

August 9 to August 15: This week in Denver weather history

This Week in Denver Weather History

Denver and Colorado as a whole are known for their unusual weather.  This week in particular is notable for one extraordinary event in weather history – clouds of grasshoppers!

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In 1979…heavy thunderstorm rains on each of three consecutive days dumped a total of 2.22 inches of rain at Stapleton International Airport.  The heaviest rain… 0.95 inches…fell on the 9th.  Small hail to 1/8 inch diameter fell on the 8th.

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In 1875…clouds of grasshoppers were seen flying through the air on the prevailing winds during each day.

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In 1900…a thunderstorm produced west winds sustained to 47 mph with gusts to 55 mph…but only 0.01 inch of rain.

In 1902…a thunderstorm produced no rain and north winds sustained to 52 mph with gusts to 60 mph.

In 1934…heavy cloudbursts in the foothills near Kittredge and at the head of Mount Vernon creek caused flash flooding on both bear creek and Mount Vernon Creek at Morrison… Which resulted in 6 deaths and much property damage. The highway in Mount Vernon Canyon was destroyed by the flood waters.

In 1981…3/4 inch hail fell at Kittredge near Evergreen in Jefferson County.

In 1987…3/4 inch hail fell in Boulder and 9 miles northwest of Castle Rock.

In 1995…lightning struck a 16-year-old counselor in the back of the head while he and a friend were standing under a tree at the singing river ranch…7 miles west of Evergreen.  He stopped breathing…but his friend was able to summon help and they were able to revive him.  He was hospitalized for a few days and released.

In 1998…brief…weak tornadoes (f0) were sighted near Bennett and Roggen.  No damage was reported.  Hail as large as 1 inch diameter fell in Franktown with 3/4 inch diameter hail measured near Castle Rock. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 61 mph near Roggen.

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In 2006…mid and high cloudiness overnight on both days resulted in two temperature records.  The low temperature of 71 degrees on the 9th was a record high minimum for the date.  The low temperature of 68 degrees on the 10th equaled the record high minimum for the date first set in 1936.

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In 1924…0.01 inch of rain fell over downtown Denver.  This along with the 0.01 inch of rainfall on the 4th was the only rainfall of the month…making this the driest august on record in the city.

In 1962…the high temperature reached 100 degrees at Stapleton Airport.

In 1970…hail stones to 1 inch in diameter were reported in the Fort Lupton area.

In 1972…dry thunderstorm microburst winds gusting to 46 mph briefly reduced the surface visibility to 3/4 mile in blowing dust at Stapleton International Airport.

In 1978…lightning struck two men in Aurora…killing one and injuring the other.

In 1982…a tornado was sighted near Castle Rock and remained on the ground for 10 minutes.  Wind gusts to 60 mph were reported in Castle Rock.  No damage was reported.

In 1994…heavy thunderstorm rains caused flash flooding on Lena Gulch in west metro Denver.  Damage was estimated at 50 thousand dollars.  Lightning struck a house in Westminster…causing a small attic fire.

In 1996…strong thunderstorm winds toppled a tent at a company picnic in Westminster.  Five people received minor injuries when the tent collapsed.  Two cars nearby were also damaged by flying debris.  A weak tornado (f0)…first sighted near Denver International Airport…traveled east to near Bennett and Strasburg.  No significant damage was reported.

In 1998…heavy rain caused flooding and flash flooding problems over southwest metro Denver.  An observer in Lakewood measured 3.26 inches of rainfall in an hour. Several streets were flooded in central Lakewood.  In addition…a trailer park along Lena Gulch in Wheat Ridge was evacuated due to high waters.  One inch diameter hail fell near Roggen.

In 1999…thunderstorm-producing tornadoes…damaging straight line winds…heavy rain…and hail hammered metro Denver.  In the city…small hail and heavy rainfall…up to 2.50 inches an hour…caused a 20-foot by 50-foot section of the roof to collapse at a furniture warehouse.  Damage to the warehouse was estimated at 1 million dollars.  Heavy rain also flooded several underpasses with up to 3 feet of water…which resulted in a number of stalled vehicles.  In Fort Lupton…a tornado bounced across the area.  Spotty damage was reported along a 5-mile path as trees…power poles…and lines were downed.  In addition…an empty semi-trailer was overturned onto another vehicle northeast of the town.  Thunderstorm winds gusted to 81 mph south of Fort Lupton.

In 2004…severe thunderstorms pummeled metro Denver with large hail.  Hail up to 3 inches in diameter was measured 10 miles east of Castle Rock.  Two inch diameter hail fell in Louisville…10 miles north of Hudson…and 1 mile east of Brighton.  Hail to 1.75 inches was reported in Englewood… 1 mile south of Ft. Lupton…and 8 miles east of Boulder. Hail to 1.50 inches was reported around Boulder…near Broomfield…and in Lafayette…Thornton and greenwood village. Hail from 3/4 to 1 inch in diameter was found in Broomfield… Brighton…Castle Rock…Denver and Thornton…and near Longmont… Northglenn…Greenwood Village…Morrison…and Wheat Ridge. Severe thunderstorm wind gusts were recorded to 66 mph in Parker and to 60 mph 5 miles northeast of Boulder.  There were no damage estimates from the hail or wind.

Continue reading August 9 to August 15: This week in Denver weather history

Denver breaks record low temperature for August 5

Record Cold Temperatures

Did you feel a very slight chill in the air this morning? It was very pleasantly cool and in fact, record-tying.

As measured at Denver International Airport, the city’s official low temperature dipped to 47 degrees. This breaks the record low for the date set in 1978.

Amusingly enough, the record low follows record-setting heat. Just two days ago, Denver set a record high temperature.

Here in Thornton, we weren’t quite as cool with a low of 50 degrees. That was our coldest August 5th reading in the past 20 years that Thornton Weather has been operating. The previous low for the date was 53.9 degrees in 2015.

Editor’s note: This story originally reported Denver’s low as 48 degrees, per the National Weather Service. They then revised the number to 47 degrees and the story was updated accordingly.

Thornton’s August 2026 preview: Temps begin to cool, severe weather eases

Thornton's August Weather Preview
Thornton’s August Weather Preview

As summer vacations wind down and families prepare to send their kids back to school in August, Colorado weather also starts to settle down. The chances for severe weather decrease markedly during August and by the end of the month daytime temperatures are dropping quite a bit as well.

Find out more about what lies ahead with Thornton’s August weather here.

Denver sets high temperature record for August 3

Record High Temperature

The heat has been on throughout the summer and continued today as Denver set another record high.

As measured at Denver International Airport, the Mile High City’s official high temperature today came in at 102 degrees. That breaks the old record high for the date of 100 degrees set in 1878.

Here in Thornton, we bested Denver slightly with a high of 103 degrees.

August 2 to August 8: This week in Denver weather history

This Week in Denver Weather History

On first glance our look at this week in Denver weather history appears to be less eventful than many we have looked at previously. However, the severity of the events that appear on the historical weather calendar this week are enough to make you stand up and pay attention. While August is typically a pretty quiet weather month, it is clear that severe weather can certainly strike and Thornton is mentioned in more than one significant event.

From the National Weather Service:

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In 1878…the high temperature reached 100 degrees in downtown Denver.

In 1911…an apparent dry microburst produced sustained west winds to 42 mph.

In 1972…one workman was killed and another injured when a strong gust of wind destroyed a partially completed apartment building in south Denver. Hail to 1 3/4 inch diameter fell in Golden.

In 1973…hail to 3/4 inch diameter was reported in Boulder.

In 1986…a major outbreak of severe thunderstorms occurred along the Front Range. Thunderstorms developed explosively. Some places were hit by large hail twice. Two inch diameter hail broke car windows on I-25 west of Brighton…and up to 1 1/4 inch hail broke windows in Thornton. Baseball size hail damaged several planes near Watkins. Funnel clouds were sighted around Aurora. Hail over 1/2 inch in diameter covered the ground 3 to 4 inches deep at Hudson northeast of Denver. Most of the hail fell north of metro Denver…but 3/4 inch diameter hail was measured at Stapleton International Airport. Total damage from the hail storms this day was estimated at over 10 million dollars.

In 1991…late afternoon thunderstorms produced heavy rain across metro Denver. Two feet of water covered parts of I-25 in southeast Denver…while one foot of water covered parts of U.S. Highway 285 in Englewood. Thunderstorm rainfall totaled 0.50 inch at Stapleton International Airport.

In 2001…severe thunderstorms producing heavy rain and hail… Either washed out or damaged several County roads in the Watkins and Bennett areas. A small tornado (f0) touched down near Bennett…but did no damage. Hail as large as 1 3/4 inches in diameter fell near Watkins. One inch diameter hail was measured near Hudson and Keenesburg.

In 2008…strong winds blew several trees down in Denver… Damaging homes and downing power lines. A peak wind gust of 67 mph occurred at Centennial Airport…with gusts to 60 mph estimated in Denver. A peak wind gust of 37 mph was measured at Denver International Airport. An elderly man was killed when a wind damaged tree broke free and crushed him while he attempted to remove it. The downed power lines caused outages to about 500 Xcel energy customers.

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In 1876…grasshoppers were in great abundance in the city and caused considerable damage to gardens and to crops in the surrounding farms and ranches.

In 1951…heavy thunderstorms rumbled across metro Denver through the night. Heavy rain totaled 3.45 inches at Stapleton Airport. This was the greatest 24 hour precipitation ever recorded during the month of august in Denver.

In 2007…heavy rain caused localized flash flooding near Ft. Lupton. Up to 8 inches of water was reported across County road 18. In addition…several other County roads in the immediate area were washed out.

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In 1878…the high temperature climbed to 100 degrees in downtown Denver.

In 1900…a thunderstorm produced west winds sustained to 48 mph with gusts to 55 mph…but only a trace of rain.

In 1903…a thunderstorm produced a trace of rainfall and northwest winds sustained to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph. The high temperature was 99 degrees.

In 1927…a thunderstorm produced hail and sustained north winds to 22 mph.

In 1933…heavy cloudburst rains caused the failure of the Castlewood dam…which resulted in flash flooding on Cherry Creek…the deaths of 7 people in Denver…and flood damage estimated at 1 million dollars. Lower Denver was flooded during the morning by waters pouring down Cherry Creek and its valley from Castlewood Dam…which had broken between midnight and 2:00 am. Heavy rain of 3 to 9 inches in 9 hours in the watershed above the dam resulted in the failure. At 7:30 am…the flow in Cherry Creek was reported at 16 thousand second-feet as compared with a peak flow of 3 thousand second-feet in other years. The flood waters ruined hundreds of acres of crops and drowned scores of farm animals. Six bridges in Denver were swept away. Great deposits of mud were left in the lower sections of the city…including hundreds of basements and lower floors of buildings. At the end of the month…a deadly stench still rose from swampy areas near the lower city limits.

In 1963…heavy thunderstorm rains in the Parker area caused Cherry Creek to overflow…which damaged roads.

In 1985…a tornado touched down briefly about 10 miles northeast of Parker. No damage was reported.

In 1991…upslope northeast winds produced chilly temperature readings and heavy rain across metro Denver. Rainfall… With no thunder…totaled 1.56 inches at Stapleton International Airport where the heavy rain briefly reduced the surface visibility to 7/8 mile. The mercury climbed to a high of only 63 degrees.

In 1992…a thunderstorm wind gust to 64 mph was recorded in Brighton. A wind gust to 60 mph was measured near the construction site of the new Denver International Airport. Lightning started a fire in an Evergreen church…causing over 75 thousand dollars in damage.

In 1998…3/4 inch hail fell in Jefferson County 15 miles northwest of Arvada.

In 2006…heavy thunderstorm rainfall caused flash flooding along Leyden Creek in unincorporated Jefferson County. An automated rain gauge on upper Leyden Creek…6 miles northwest of Arvada…measured 2.68 inches of rainfall in less than 2 hours. Two to three feet of water covered the roadway at the intersection of 82nd and Quaker Street.

In 2009…a woman riding her bike… In training for an ironman triathlon…was struck by lightning in Boulder. She was in the 78th mile of a 100-mile training ride when she was hit. The woman lost her vision initially and couldn`t move her arms. After a short stay in the hospital…she made of complete recovery.

In 2013…severe wet microburst thunderstorms produced damaging winds and very heavy rain in and around Buckley Air Force Base…Erie and Lafayette. Peak gusts included: 68 mph in Erie…61 mph at Buckley AFB… And 60 mph in Broomfield…4 miles east-southeast of Erie and Lafayette. In Erie…a velodrome under construction was heavily damaged by heavy rain and high winds. The wind toppled the eastern third of the 250-meter cycling track. Bolts measuring one-half-inch thick by 7 1/2 inches in length were ripped out of concrete footers while 16-inch-wide trusses…collapsed under the force of the wind. In town…heavy rain… Around 2.5 inches in less than one hour…caused extensive street flooding. The intense wind also downed trees which resulted in localized power outages. In addition…an empty semi-trailer was blown on its side. A weak non supercell tornado touched down briefly in an open field…7 miles northwest of Hudson. The storm forced seven incoming flights at Denver International Airport to be diverted and contributed to 45-minute delays for others. At Denver International Airport…a peak wind gust of 55 mph was observed from the northeast…with 0.66 inches of rainfall recorded. The very heavy rain produced flash flooding in part of Aurora. Road closures were set up in both directions on both Picadilly Road and Gun Club Road…just north of Buckley AFB. A man had to be rescued when his car was trapped in flood waters at the intersection of 6th Ave. and Picadilly Road. Flash flooding was also observed at the junction of e-470 and I-70 with water running over the road.

In 2018…a gust front associated with a dissipating thunderstorm moved out of the foothills of Boulder and northern Jefferson counties continued to push eastward into Denver. The storm knocked down trees and branches. Power lines were also damaged which produced scattered outages. Peak wind gusts included: 67 mph near Gold Hill…64 mph in south Boulder…62 mph at Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Airport…and 60 mph at Denver International Airport.

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In 1988…two inches of rain fell in 3 hours at both Morrison and Wheat Ridge. Thunderstorm rainfall totaled 0.80 inch overnight at Stapleton International Airport.

Continue reading August 2 to August 8: This week in Denver weather history

Denver sets record high minimum for July 27

Record High Temperature

Following on a record setting high, the nighttime brought little relief and set another warm weather record.

As measured at Denver International Airport, the Mile High City’s low temperature for July 27 was only 74 degrees. This breaks the previous record high minimum for the date of 72 degrees set in 1931.

Notably, this reading is also the third warmest minimum temperature ever recorded in Denver. The warmest is 77 degrees recorded on July 3, 1881.

Here in Thornton, we did not stay near as warm at night with a low of 64.2 degrees.

Denver sets high temperature record for July 26

Record High Temperature

No rest from the summer heat for the Mile High City as Denver sets a record high for the second day in a row.

As measured at Denver International Airport, the Mile High City’s official high temperature today came in at 103 degrees. That breaks the old record high for the date of 100 degrees set in 1910.

Here in Thornton, we bested Denver slightly with a high of 104 degrees.

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