466
FXUS65 KBOU 061854
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1254 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures and a few high based showers and storms with
  gusty winds into Tuesday.

- Higher probabilities of thunderstorms with a few strong to
  severe storms possible from the Front Range eastward on Wednesday
  and Thursday.

- Isolated dry thunderstorms in mountains could spark new
  wildfires.

- Heat wave arrives this weekend, with minimal chance of any
  thunderstorms for heat relief.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Hot temperatures with readings in the mid to upper 90s across
most of the plains this afternoon will only ease slightly for
Tuesday. Some of that relief will be due to increasing mid and
upper level moisture and thus shower/storm outflows a little
earlier in the day. In the meantime, we`ll have just isolated high
based convection (possible lightning and mainly sprinkles) into
early this evening. There is potential for strong microbursts as
DCAPE has grown to 1400-1700 J/kg over the lower elevations. With
those values, we expect microburst potential to be around 40-50
mph, although an isolated severe gust to 60 mph can`t be ruled
out. For Tuesday, look for higher (scattered) coverage of these
showers and storms, and as flow aloft increases a little that
would support a higher probability of more organized gusty outflow
winds. The Marginal Risk for portions of the plains may need to
be expanded southward as storms attempt to organize into a more
linear wind producing structure over the plains in the late
afternoon/evening. Most rainfall amounts will remain quite light
with limited low level moisture in all but the eastern plains.

For Wednesday and Thursday, we are still expecting a more active
pattern as low level moisture and instability increase across the
plains. Bulk shear is forecast to increase to 30-35 kts, and
instability is forecast to increase to MLCAPE of 800-1600 J/kg
over the eastern plains (using the GEM as a rough estimate which
typically is a good compromise between the overly aggressive NAM
and under-representative GFS). The main uncertainty at this point
appears to be how far west the better moisture makes it. Most
likely, the strongest instability and storms would be east of the
I-25 Corridor. Mountain areas will also get in on scattered
showers and storms, as the mid levels and precipitable water
values increase through Wednesday. However, low level moisture is
still somewhat limited, which means a risk of new fire starts
from isolated dry lightning.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler given the unsettled
weather and scattered afternoon showers/storms, with readings
settling back to near normal both Wednesday and Thursday. Friday
will be a transition day toward drier weather, but some
uncertainty as to how much drying and thus uncertainty in storm
coverage.

We are still monitoring a heat wave that`s forecast to arrive
this weekend. Ensembles are still in very good agreement that a
dominating ridge of high pressure builds over the Central Rockies.
There were some subtle changes that could affect exactly how hot
we get, as the anomalously strong upper high is now forecast to
center itself a little farther north over Wyoming and western
South Dakota. As a result, we stay in a more southeasterly mid
level flow which, as funny as this sounds, is slight "cool"
advection in the mid levels from the southeast. 700 mb
temperatures are now forecast to stay near/below +20C. Those
solutions continue the ever so slight "cooling" trend in the
models, essentially taking us to near 100F and potentially not
exceeding that mark next Sunday and Monday. There is still a
relatively high probability (>60%) that we`ll be reaching Heat
Advisory criteria either Saturday or more confidence by Sunday
and Monday. Record highs are still possible Monday and Tuesday,
records for Denver are 100F and 101F, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A weak boundary
will likely push to the north of DEN and APA allowing for
southeast winds this afternoon. There is a slight chance this
boundary stays farther south and there are light northeast winds
at both airports. The existence of this boundary makes the chance
for afternoon showers or weak thunderstorms higher. Therefore, the
PROB30 for gusty winds was increased to a TEMPO from 21-01Z this
afternoon/evening. If a shower or storm were to form very close to
DEN or APA, the high DCAPE values mean wind gusts could approach
45 knots.

Otherwise, smoke is expected to impact the terminals this evening
and again tomorrow morning.

Tonight, winds will become drainage with slightly stronger winds
than normal. Winds will become very light tomorrow morning.

Increased moisture with better upslope flow will provide a better
chance of storms for all terminals Tuesday afternoon. TEMPO for
gusty thunderstorm outflow winds up to 35 knots was added to DEN
and will be added to APA and BJC later.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...Danielson

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion