466
FXUS65 KBOU 021150
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
550 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat turns up today, with temperatures reaching into the upper
  90s and lower 100s this afternoon and again on Monday.

- Heat Advisory in effect for the I-25 corridor and Weld County from
  this afternoon through Monday evening.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the eastern
  plains this afternoon.

- Cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday, but warm and generally dry
  conditions will continue for the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 119 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Another hot day is on tap for the forecast area today, as an
anomalous upper-level ridge is centered over the Desert Southwest.
There is high confidence that temperatures will return to the
upper 90s and low 100s across the majority of the forecast area as
700 mb temperatures are expected to reach 20-24C by the
afternoon. With afternoon high temps forecast to range from 12-17
degrees above normal across the urban corridor and Weld County, a
Heat Advisory remains in effect beginning at 1200 PM today for
these locations, and will continue through Monday afternoon, as
temperatures are forecast to heat into the upper 90s and low 100s
once again Monday. It should be noted that an approaching cold
front associated with a passing shortwave to our north may reach
the forecast area before peak heating occurs Monday afternoon.
Latest guidance hints at a late afternoon arrival time, and with
flow aloft turning more zonal as the shortwave flattens out the
ridge, downsloping winds and the poor overnight recoveries
expected tonight have kept confidence high enough that the current
Heat Advisory should remain as is, as temps are going to start
out very warm in the morning and heat up quickly before the front
makes it here, making for another very hot day along the majority
of the urban corridor, with heat relief expected from north to
south behind the front. If the front arrives sooner than currently
progged, we could see recoveries slightly sooner, therefore we
will continue to monitor latest trends and adjust the Heat
Advisory if need be.

Outside of the heat, a tightening pressure gradient is expected to
increase surface winds across the eastern plains later today.
Relative humidities (RH) are expected to range from 9% to the mid
teens across the lower elevations, but winds are expected to be
strongest where RH values are highest, and while there may be
some localized critical fire weather conditions at times across
the far eastern plains, we are not expecting them to reach the
three hour time threshold at any given location to warrant any
fire weather highlights. With the uncertainties on the timing of
the front on Monday, there could be some overlapping low RH with
gusty winds across Weld County in the afternoon that will bring
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions until we see
some RH recovery behind the front.

Precipitation chances aren`t expected to return until Monday
where scattered afternoon showers will be possible along the
higher elevations and Palmer Divide before some storms will be
possible with the arrival of the cold front in the afternoon and
evening, but any accumulations are not expected to be much more
than a few hundredths. Hi-res guidance does show inverted-v
soundings with DCAPE ranging from 1400-1600 J/kg over the plains
in the early afternoon that would indicate high-based showers
capable of producing some strong gusty outflows, and as such, an
isolated severe gust can`t be ruled out as virga showers come off
the higher terrain.

While we are expecting a few days of heat relief behind the cold
front, increasing winds aloft will start to introduce potential
for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the higher
elevations where RH values are expected to drop into the single
digits by midweek. The cooler weather isn`t expected to last long,
and afternoon highs are expected to return to the mid to upper 90s
across the plains by Thursday afternoon as the ridge rebuilds over
the western CONUS, and temperatures gradually warm each day into
the weekend. Precipitation chances will remain limited through the
extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds are expected
to follow a typical diurnal pattern today, with current drainage
winds expected to become light and variable before turning to the
northeast this afternoon, and continuing around to the southeast
through the evening. A period of enhanced southerly winds is
expected first at KAPA around 2Z this evening with KDEN/KBJC
following suit by 4/5Z through 9-10Z early Monday morning.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ038>043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion