837
FXUS65 KBOU 031810
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1210 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions return to the plains today.

- Light snow showers in mountains, but some slick spots early
  this morning. Plains will remain dry.

- Strong, gusty winds for the forecast area through this evening.
  Wind prone areas could approach high wind criteria (20% chance)
  briefly this morning.

- Dry with a gradual warming trend (outside of Monday) through the
  middle of next week. Elevated fire weather conditions possible
  for South Park and portions of the plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Satellite shows a rather vigorous spring-time low moving east
across Wyoming in the late night hours, while a potent cold front
moves across the plains with strong gusty winds and much cooler
air behind it. Meanwhile, in the mountains a period of healthy
snow is falling, but will diminish overnight as drier air
eventually works in by daybreak Friday. The upper low will
continue move east into South Dakota during the day Friday,
bringing strong subsidence to the forecast area. In conjunction
with a strong westerly gradient, we`ll be in store for a day of
gusty winds and critical fire weather conditions. See more in the
Fire Weather Discussion section.

700 mb winds will generally be around 30-45 kts (strongest
north), and with the strong subsidence, sunshine, and gradients
suggest we`ll easily mix those winds to the surface and represent
our peak gusts for the day. There is a window of opportunity near
the foothills this Friday morning for a period of near high winds,
with locally stronger gusts over 60 mph. Wind direction averages
from about 290 degrees, favoring the highest winds from west of
Fort Collins to Buckeye and the far northern stretches of I-25
near the Wyoming border for the strongest winds. Also, can`t rule
out some locally strong winds along Highway 285 through Park
County, although a wind closer to 310 degrees is more favorable
there for high winds. Overall the magnitude of winds aloft and
lack of mountain wave amplification don`t support development of
high winds (only a 20% chance of approaching criteria at one or
two observation sites) this morning. We have added some
patchy/areas of blowing dust to the forecast where winds will be
strongest and given the recent dryness (the few hundredths
recorded Wednesday evening are essentially gone). Overall, the
strongest winds are expected through about noon, with a gradual
decrease in most areas for the afternoon. There is some chance
(30-40%) that the immediate Denver could be slightly blocked in
northwest flow and thus have lighter winds than forecast at times.

Winds will be decreasing in all areas Friday evening as the
gradients continue to weaken, although it will still be breezy
most of the night over the northeast plains. Breezy conditions
will prevail again Saturday across the plains, but lighter winds
can be expected along the I-25 Corridor as it will be sheltered
in a more N-NW flow and expect some anticyclonic turning.

Temperatures will be colder today with highs in the lower to mid
50s over the plains - several degrees below normal for a change.
Then a gradual warmup starts Saturday and continues through
Sunday. Models have come around to a stronger backdoor cold front
for Monday so would not be surprised at all for guidance to slowly
adjust to the cooler temperatures - with highs likely (70% chance)
on the plains staying in the 50s to potentially near 60F in
Denver.

Dry conditions will persist through the weekend, but by early next
week there are signs of enough moisture building under a flat
ridge for a 20-30% chance of showers toward Monday and Tuesday.
Ensembles suggest our next chance of beneficial precipitation
holding off until late next week, more likely toward Friday or
Saturday than Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period. Gusty westerly
winds remain in place across all Denver TAF sites this morning.
We are starting to see a slight decrease in wind speeds over the
past hour, and are anticipating a farther decrease in the next
hour (around 19Z). With the decrease, winds are expected to see a
slight turn towards the NW at KDEN/KAPA, with a predominate
westerly direction remaining at KBJC. There is a higher chance of
gusts remaining elevated at KBJC, therefore have a TEMPO in place
through 20Z.

Have added a TEMPO for another period of potential gusty W to WNW
winds at KDEN from 22-01Z this afternoon, where gusts between
25-30 kts will be possible. Right around sunset, much lighter
northerly winds are expected at KDEN/KAPA before settling into
drainage sometime between 8Z to 11Z. While winds are expected to
become light and variable at KBJC early Saturday morning, can`t
rule out a few westerly gusts between 20-24kts making their way
across the field through the morning before NE to E winds are
expected by late morning.

Can`t rule out an anticyclone developing (~20%-30% chance) at some
point Saturday afternoon with enhanced NW winds expected along
the Cheyenne Ridge.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across
all of the northeast and east central Colorado Friday. This will
be due to strong west-northwest winds gusting to 35-45 mph, and
locally 50-60 mph near the base of the foothills of Larimer and
Boulder Counties. We recognize humidity will likely be just short
of criteria due to considerably cooler temperatures, but at the
same time we will have a very dry airmass taking charge with
locally single digit dewpoints expected along the Front Range and
adjacent plains. There may be slight recovery near 10-16F
dewpoints in the afternoon from a bit of wrap around moisture but
that`s still rather dismal. Also, despite the very light rain
Wednesday evening, fine fuels dried Thursday and remain crisp and
prone to rapid fire spread especially considering the strength of
winds. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning for all of the plains in
northeast and east central Colorado, including the I-25 Urban
Corridor, will remain in effect today.

Daily elevated fire weather conditions are expected for the plains
and South Park this weekend and early next week due to dry and warm
conditions. However, winds will continue to be the limiting factor,
as gusts should stay below 25-30 mph. The exception would be
Saturday, where subsidence aloft would help mix strong 700-mb winds
to the eastern plains.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ238>251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...9
FIRE WEATHER...20

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion