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378 FXUS65 KBOU 030602 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1102 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and slightly cooler through Wednesday. - Quick-hitting light snow showers likely (60-70% chance) for the mountains starting Tuesday morning, and Palmer Divide Tuesday late afternoon, ending late Tuesday night. Lower chances (20-50%) elsewhere. Any accumulations will be light. - Warm and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week through the weekend. - Pattern change likely next week, finally! && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1100 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 A disturbance in NW flow aloft will move across the area Tue aftn into Tue night. Latest cross-sections show enough moisture to bring a good chc of light snow to the mtns mainly in the aftn and evening hours. At lower elevations, cross-sections are showing a dry layer in the boundary layer thru early Tue evening with some saturation after 03z. Overall, with northerly low level flow, this would favor areas of the Palmer Divide for some light snow Tue night. For Wed an upper level high will build over the Great Basin into Colorado with dry northerly flow aloft across the area. By Thu, this upper level high will shift a bit eastward into wrn Colorado. Overall, this will lead to a dry pattern both days, with temps well above normal by Thu, as readings reach the lower to mid 60`s over nern CO. By Fri, the upper level high will weaken, however, an upper level ridge will still linger over the area as weak upper level trough develops over the swrn US. As a result, this will lead to another dry day with highs well above normal normal. Looking ahead to the weekend, the weak upper level trough over the swrn US will shift southward with weak flow aloft across the area. Cross-sections show very little moisture either day so dry conditions will continue with above normal temperatures. Finally, peering into the longer term, eventually may see a pattern change by the early to middle part of next week as an upper level trough affects the area. As a result, would see temperatures drop back to more seasonal levels with a good chc of precip. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1038 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions expected through at least Tuesday afternoon. Winds are currently transitioning to drainage flow, and will stay below 15 kts overnight. For tomorrow, confidence remains high that winds will become NW by 17Z/18Z, with gusts up to 25-30 kts possible, particularly between 20Z and 01Z. There is a 20-30% chance of light rain/snow showers as early as 22Z for all TAF sites, along with lowering of ceilings. However, due to the NNW flow at BJC, downsloping winds may hinder any precipitation chances. A PROB30 is still in place for all terminals. Guidance has been consistent with ceilings dropping to 6000 ft at their lowest by 02Z. By that time, temperatures are expected to drop below freezing, which would support all snow. Ceilings should begin gradually lifting after 06Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...MAI