174
FXUS65 KBOU 072315
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
515 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through at least Saturday.

- Only isolated to scattered showers (15-30% coverage) for the
  mountains and higher terrain. Any precipitation would be light.

- Pattern change late this weekend and early next week. Still
  considerable uncertainty as to when and how much temperatures
  will cool, and what chance of precipitation we`ll see.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Slightly "cooler" today thanks to a shallow backdoor front, with
most of the plains sitting at mid-to-high 70s early this
afternoon. We have been slow to warm-up today as recent ACARS
soundings still showing an inversion in place. For this reason,
have lowered daytime temperatures a bit, but still expect low 80s
as the high temperature for today. Current radar imagery shows
showers popping up over the high terrain. Expect isolated showers,
and possibly a few rumbles of thunder, through early evening with
little precipitation reaching the ground. While convection should
stay confined to the high terrain, can`t rule out a virga shower
spilling onto the I-25 Corridor and Palmer Divide. If this occurs,
gusty outflow winds of 30-35 mph is possible.

Warm and mostly dry conditions will persist through the end of the
week and into the weekend as the upper level ridge resides over
the southwestern U.S. High temperatures will continue to be 10-15
degrees above normal, reaching the mid 80s through Saturday. We
might be able to tie our record temperature for October 8
(record:
85 set in 2020, forecast: 84). Like the past few days, any
precipitation chances will be confined to the mountains.

By late Friday/early Saturday, flow aloft will increase and turn
more southwesterly ahead of a system out west. With this increased
flow aloft, expect breezy conditions across the high terrain,
particularly northern Front Range and North Park where gusts of
30-40 mph is possible throughout the afternoon. As of right now,
it looks like we will hold on to enough moisture to keep relative
humidity values above critical fire weather thresholds, but will
keep monitoring for any drying trends.

Guidance continues to be in good agreement of a pattern change
by next week, although there is still some uncertainty in the
forecast and we might not see that change until later next week.
An upper level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest, become a
closed low and travel south along California Sunday and Monday.
While it looks like we will initially miss the colder air
associated with this system, 700-mb temperatures will begin to
cool, resulting in slightly lower surface temperatures than what
we have been seeing by sometime Sunday/Monday. However, there is
still a spread in maximum temperatures both days, with latest
ensemble guidance trending warmer for Monday. General consensus
seems to be somewhere in the 70s Sunday and Monday. In terms of
precipitation, we will likely stay dry across the plains and most
of the high terrain as the bulk of the moisture from the remnants
of Hurricane Rachel stays south and west of our region.

By mid-to-late next week, another upper level trough will enter
the Pacific Northwest and absorb the aforementioned upper level
low. This system looks to finally bring more seasonal temperatures
the forecast area. There is still some uncertainty with the exact
travel and evolution of this system, but model guidance has
continued to hint at lower elevation precipitation by the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/...
Issued at 509 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Believe chances of any high based showers thru 03z this evening is
less than 10 percent for now. Thus have not mentioned prob30
despite the HRRR show some high based activity. Winds were light
and variable but will become more S/SSW by 02z.  Overnight winds
will stay drainage but then become light and variable by 16z Thu.
For Thu aftn, expect VFR conditions with winds having a light
easterly direction.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion