782
FXUS65 KBOU 141956
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1256 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions expected Sunday for the eastern
  plains and Monday for much of the eastern plains and southern
  I-25 corridor.

- Very windy with extreme fire weather conditions possible
  Tuesday for the foothills eastward across all of the eastern
  Colorado plains.

- Additional fire weather concerns for elevated to critical fire
  weather conditions Wednesday through the rest of the work week.

- Snow returns to the mountains early Tuesday. Snow combined with strong
  winds will lead to very dangerous winter driving conditions in
  the mountains on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 1246 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today is the quietest weather day we`ll see for a while. The upper
level shortwave is moving off to the east today, with ridging
building in behind it. Winds aloft will turn more zonal, and
increase in speed starting Sunday. As temperatures increase under
the ridge the next two days and dry conditions prevail with dew
points primarily below 20F (even dropping into the single digits),
fire weather concerns will increase. Sunday will be the most
borderline day in terms of Red Flag Criteria (compared to Monday and
Tuesday), but we are forecasting a few hours of winds gusting around
25 to 40mph with RHs around 12% to 18% in our eastern most counties,
so we decided to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag
Warning. RHs are expected to be lower in the plains to the west of
the Watch, however winds will be much lighter, so these areas were
not included in the RFW. On Monday, models are hinting at a cyclonic
circulation forming near the Denver area. Areas to the north of the
this circulation will see lighter east winds, whereas areas to the
south and east will see strong south/southeasterly winds. With RHs
around 10% to 20% for much of the plains, the exact location of
where the circulation sets up and the extent of the stronger winds
will have a big impact on how far north and west the critical fire
weather conditions will extend. As of right now, we have the
stronger winds (gusts around 20 to 35 mph) in the southeastern half
of our forecast area with the Denver Metro and areas south and east
in a Fire Weather Watch for Monday afternoon.

Now for the main event, which will be Tuesday. A small low/trough
will sit off the coast of California on Monday. This low will be
absorbed into the flow aloft and progress east towards our area on
Tuesday, creating a nice little shortwave in the southwest flow
aloft. As this small trough moves over the area and progresses
eastward, winds will increase significantly. A surface low is
forecast to develop ahead of the trough, tightening the pressure
gradient, and pushing a cold front through the area. Ahead of the
low we`ll see strong southwest winds, behind the low we`ll see
strong west winds. The timing of the frontal passage could have a
small impact on the fire weather conditions (lowering temps/changing
dewpoints/altering RH), but it will be very windy and dry on either
side of the front, so we will have critical to extreme fire weather
conditions no matter the frontal timing. Along with our fire weather
products, we are watching for the potential for High Wind Warning
criteria. The NBM currently has a medium chance (30 to 70%) that a
good portion of the Colorado plains will gust to 58 mph or above.
We`ll also be monitoring the potential for High Wind products in the
mountains, as we currently have about a 40% chance of reaching or
exceeding the 75 mph gust threshold for portions of the Front Range,
Park Range, and Mosquito Range.

Fire weather concerns will extend into the second half of the work
week. We will get a tiny bit of reprieve on Wednesday compared to
Tuesday, thanks to cooler temperatures behind the front and slightly
weaker winds. However conditions will remain critical for Wednesday,
with gusts around 35 to 50 mph for much of the plains ad RHs around
12% to 20%. Conditions will improve slightly for Thursday, but we
could still be sitting at that near critical to critical spot for
the rest of the work week.

Now for the mountains snow part of the forecast. Snow chances begin
to increase late Monday into Tuesday. The trough mentioned above
will usher Pacific moisture into the mountains on Tuesday. A strong
upper level jet will move just south of the area early Tuesday,
putting us in the left exit region. These 2 sources of lift will
combine with decent QG lift as well, providing pretty decent
conditions for snow showers to form in the mountains. Temperatures
unfortunately look a little warm, so snow ratios will be below
normal for Tuesday, but we should be able to crank out at least a
few inches of snow in the mountains on Tuesday. Another
trough/shortwave will move through Wednesday into Thursday, giving
the mountains a second chance at snow. 700mb temperatures are
forecast to drop a few degrees by this time, which means we could
see some better snow ratios and snow amounts for the second round.
The main hazard with this snow will be potential white out
conditions leading to very hazardous travel at the higher
elevations. As discussed above, there is potential for winds in
excess of 75 mph on Tuesday. These winds combined with snow, will
lead to very dangerous driving conditions in the mountains.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1031 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. This morning`s
brief passing of pesky low CIG has pushed south of the TAF sites
with dry air filling in behind them. Winds are expected to be
light today under a building upper-level ridge. Current light and
variable winds should see a N to NE transition through the
afternoon, turning "around the clock" to end back at drainage
somewhere between 3-6Z tonight. Drainage winds to become light
and variable again late Monday morning. Low confidence in wind
direction at KBJC through the TAF period, with potential for winds
to turn to the NE this afternoon, or remain from the WSW to W
through the TAF period. Either scenario, winds are expected to
remain 10 kts or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1246 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Much of the meteorology behind the fire weather over the next
week is discussed in the discussion above. So, we`re going to try
and keep it short and sweet here. Fire weather concerns will
increase and expand Sunday through Tuesday. An RFW is out for the
eastern plains for Sunday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch is out
for the Denver Metro and areas south and east for Monday
afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch is out for all of the foothills
and eastern plains for Tuesday. Tuesday will be the day of highest
concern this week. Winds could gust around 65 mph in the plains
with RHs around 10%. Elevated to critical fire weather concerns
will continue through the end of the work week as dry conditions
and breezy winds hang around.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for COZ215-216-238>251.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for COZ216-240-241-244>247-249.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ246-
249>251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...9
FIRE WEATHER...AP

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion