994
FXUS65 KBOU 032344
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
444 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers will continue for the mountains through late
  this evening. Scattered light snow showers on the plains this
  evening, mainly over the Palmer Divide.

- Breezy and slightly cooler through Wednesday, with warm and dry
  weather through the rest of the week.

- Pattern change likely next week, finally!

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 1204 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Snow has developed across portions of the front range today. Snow
showers are expected to continue into the late evening/early
overnight hours, with accumulations of generally around 1 to 4
inches for the higher elevations. In the plains, the front is
pushing southeast through our CWA. Behind the front, winds will turn
to the north/northwest and strengthen, with gusts around 20 to
35mph. Aloft, a northerly upper level jet is moving south into
Colorado. We will be in the left exit region of the jet through the
late evening/early overnight hours, providing weak lift for our
area. An upper level disturbance will also be moving through at mid
levels this afternoon and evening, providing another source of lift.
However, the lack of moisture will really hinder precipitation
chances for the plains today. Cross sections show a layer of dry air
at the surface for this afternoon. Precipitation has started to form
across portions of the plains as of the late morning, however much
of this is currently and will likely continue to evaporate before it
reaches the ground. As the precip evaporates, the dry layer will
moisten and erode, eventually letting some light precip make it to
the ground this evening. The best chance for any snow accumulation
today and tonight (other than the mountains) will be the Palmer
Divide, as northerly surface winds allow for some upslope. Snow
accumulations along the Palmer will generally be a trace to 1 inch.

The upper level trough will shift east on Wednesday as an upper high
builds over the West Coast. As we go into the second half of the
work week, the upper level ridging will progress east over our area.
This will lead to quiet weather and very above normal temperatures
for Thursday into Saturday. Highs will be around 20 degrees above
normal for the Denver area, with forecast temperatures only 5
degrees below the record high for Friday.

Models are hinting at a weak disturbance in the flow aloft Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, which could send a weak front through the
northeastern plains on Saturday. Precipitation chances remain low
with this system however due to the limited moisture and lack of
other forcings. The next decent chance for precipitation will be
next week. A potent upper level low is forecast to develop over the
southwestern U.S. at the end of this week. Ahead of this low,
south/southwest winds aloft will bring Pacific moisture into
Colorado. The increase in moisture and potential lift from a
shortwave will lead to low precipitation chances Monday into Tuesday
of next week (with better chances expected later on).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 444 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Scattered light rain and snow showers had developed in the area
late this afternoon, but low level moisture is still lacking and
flow aloft is slightly west of due north, keeping any
precipitation minimized. Looking upstream, there are additional
convective showers in Wyoming drifting this way, but the chances
of any significant shower activity reducing visibility are quite
low given the dearth of moisture and weak downslope component.
Areas closer to KAPA and mainly the Palmer Divide would have a
higher chance, however, where the current flow and terrain
orientation supports weak upslope. We will keep the low Prob30 in
the forecast for light snow showers/flurries, but chance of any
accumulation is quite small, and at worst a very light dusting in
the grass. Precipitation potential winds down after 04Z, or 06Z at
the latest, as we become more subsident and stable as the jet
axis is expected to be passing just to our east by then. That
will also support clearing skies. Gusty north winds are expected
to diminish with loss of mixing, and then trend more NW-WSW
overnight with clearing skies and a light drainage component
offsetting the gradient winds. Hard to call winds tomorrow with
multiple and all light wind solutions less than 10 kts. At this
point, it really looks light and VRB once light drainage ceases
by 17Z, with only a 30-40% chance of NW-N dominating for anything
more than two to three hours.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...20

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion