National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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378
FXUS65 KBOU 030602
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1102 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and slightly cooler through Wednesday.

- Quick-hitting light snow showers likely (60-70% chance) for the
  mountains starting Tuesday morning, and Palmer Divide Tuesday
  late afternoon, ending late Tuesday night. Lower chances
  (20-50%) elsewhere. Any accumulations will be light.

- Warm and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week through
  the weekend.

- Pattern change likely next week, finally!

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 1100 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

A disturbance in NW flow aloft will move across the area Tue
aftn into Tue night.  Latest cross-sections show enough moisture to
bring a good chc of light snow to the mtns mainly in the aftn and
evening hours.  At lower elevations, cross-sections are showing a
dry layer in the boundary layer thru early Tue evening with some
saturation after 03z.  Overall, with northerly low level flow, this
would favor areas of the Palmer Divide for some light snow Tue
night.

For Wed an upper level high will build over the Great Basin into
Colorado with dry northerly flow aloft across the area. By Thu,
this upper level high will shift a bit eastward into wrn Colorado.
Overall, this will lead to a dry pattern both days, with temps
well above normal by Thu, as readings reach the lower to mid 60`s
over nern CO.

By Fri, the upper level high will weaken, however, an upper level
ridge will still linger over the area as weak upper level trough
develops over the swrn US.  As a result, this will lead to another
dry day with highs well above normal normal.

Looking ahead to the weekend, the weak upper level trough over the
swrn US will shift southward with weak flow aloft across the area.
Cross-sections show very little moisture either day so dry
conditions will continue with above normal temperatures.

Finally, peering into the longer term, eventually may see a pattern
change by the early to middle part of next week as an upper level
trough affects the area.  As a result, would see temperatures drop
back to more seasonal levels with a good chc of precip.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1038 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions expected through at least Tuesday afternoon. Winds
are currently transitioning to drainage flow, and will stay below
15 kts overnight. For tomorrow, confidence remains high that winds
will become NW by 17Z/18Z, with gusts up to 25-30 kts possible,
particularly between 20Z and 01Z. There is a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow showers as early as 22Z for all TAF sites, along
with lowering of ceilings. However, due to the NNW flow at BJC,
downsloping winds may hinder any precipitation chances. A PROB30
is still in place for all terminals. Guidance has been consistent
with ceilings dropping to 6000 ft at their lowest by 02Z. By that
time, temperatures are expected to drop below freezing, which
would support all snow. Ceilings should begin gradually lifting
after 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...MAI

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion