National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
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422 FXUS65 KBOU 221939 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 139 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light showers this afternoon and evening. - An uncertain precipitation forecast, but cooler, wetter weather likely returns this weekend. - At least a brief warm-up likely sometime next week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/... Issued at 1258 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Moisture continues to advect into the area, bringing scattered showers this afternoon and evening. The highest chance for precipitation today will be in the higher terrain, specifically Park County and surrounding areas. We are starting to see some high based showers and virga try and move off o the higher terrain and into the plains. Right now, the rain is struggling to reach the ground, but as we get further into the afternoon and evening we could see some light rain make it to the surface across the urban corridor and plains. In the mountains, snow levels remain around 12,500ft to 13,000ft today. Drier air will briefly move through the flow aloft on Friday as dry air wraps around the trough. Precip chances will decrease and temperatures will be well above normal Friday afternoon. Winds will increase at upper levels, putting 700mb winds around 25kts to 40kts across our southeastern counties. Mostly clear skies and mostly unidirectional winds in the column could allow for winds to occasionally mix down in the afternoon, creating gusts around 25 to 40mph along and south of I-76. A cold front will move into our northern counties late Friday, progressing through the area overnight. By mid Saturday morning, models have the front sitting just to the south and east of our CWA. Winds behind the front will be breezy from the north/northeast and winds ahead of the front will be breezy from the south, leading to strong surface convergence. This combined with lift ahead of the upper trough will allow for showers and storms Saturday afternoon. The front will act as the initial trigger for convection, with a line of showers and storms developing along it. As we go into the late afternoon and evening however, coverage should start to expand further north covering more of our area. Precip chances will continue into Sunday as QG lift ahead of the trough continues. The highest rain chances and rain amounts this weekend will be wherever that front sets up for Saturday (which right now looks to be south of our area). Amounts will decrease the further north we go from the front. Snow levels will drop closer to 9,000ft as the cooler temps move in this weekend. Scattered light rain and snow showers are expected throughout the weekend and into Monday for the higher terrain. Snow amounts will generally remain on the lower end (