221
FXUS65 KBOU 262338
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
538 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through early this evening
  across the plains.

- Snow showers for the mountains today and overnight. Heavy snow
  could impact travel conditions. A Winter Weather Advisory is in
  effect for the higher elevations through 6AM Monday.

- Cooler and more moist weather pattern expected much of the
  upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Showers and storms have formed over the mountains this afternoon and
are progressing east onto the Foothills and plains. Some of the
storms are already producing small hail and lightning, but the
threat for stronger storms will increase as we go into the
afternoon as instability increases. The highest CAPE values will
be in our southern tier of counties, including the Palmer and
southern Urban Corridor east to southern Washington and Lincoln
counties where the low clouds cleared out a bit earlier and
allowed for better surface heating. While storms are currently
initiating over the mountains and moving east, we could also see
some initiation where the Denver Cyclone has decided to set up
this afternoon and along any gust fronts that develop. Looking at
surface obs, we can see that the DCVZ has set up just to the
east/southeast of Denver. We`ll have to watch this area closely
for convective initiation. As the storms progress east, there
will be potential for isolated strong to marginally severe storms.
The main hazards across the plains today will be hail (around an
inch or less), gusty winds, and dangerous lightning. In the
mountains, generally above 8500ft, storms will have the potential
to produce heavy snow, quickly dropping the visibility to a
quarter mile or less at times. Due to the possibility for
hazardous travel conditions and snow accumulations around 2 to 8
inches, we`ve issued a Winter Weather Advisory for our higher
elevation zones through 6AM Monday.

A cold front is forecast to move through our CWA early on Monday.
Winds will be gusty around 25 to 45mph during frontal passage and a
couple of hours following FROPA. Impacts on temperatures will be
minimal since we`re already pretty cool today but it will keep the
area in below normal temperatures for tomorrow as well. Winds on
Wednesday will slowly veer to the east into the late afternoon,
providing some upslope flow. This combined with another shortwave
approaching the area late Monday into early Tuesday, will likely
lead to another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday
late afternoon and evening. High res models have multiple rounds of
showers and storms initiating over the Foothills and adjacent plains
during this time, giving the Foothills and plains another decent
chance at rainfall. The mountains will see an additional few inches
of snowfall at the higher elevations throughout the day and evening.

Another cold front is expected sometimes Wednesday. This front will
turn winds back to the north briefly and drop high temperatures 5 to
15 degrees across the plains for Thursday. The front, weak upslope,
and weak PVA could be enough for a few isolated to scattered showers
on Wednesday afternoon and evening. But overall, precip chances look
better for Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday.

Uncertainty remains high for the system Thursday through Saturday.
Models continue to vary on the exact track of the upper level low,
which will have significant impacts on our precip amounts. If the
trough digs further south, the majority of the precip will remain to
our south in New Mexico. But if the upper low can remain a bit
further north, rain amounts will increase for our area. Right now,
cluster analysis is showing about a 50/50 split between the 2
potential solutions. With either solution, our southern counties and
mountains will have the best chance of seeing precip during this
time it just impacts how much we can get. Our mountains and southern
counties are sitting at a medium chance (40%-60%) of getting half an
inch of rain or more for mid Thursday into late Friday, with low
chances (

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion