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288 FXUS65 KBOU 021741 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1141 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and unseasonably warm weather returns for the majority of the week ahead. Record/near record warmth next Monday. - A few showers expected Tuesday as a weak disturbance moves across. && .DISCUSSION /Through Friday/... Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Dry and unseasonably warm autumn weather will persist through the week ahead. For tonight, mostly clear skies will prevail with a dry airmass and upper level ridging in place. There is still some low level moisture over southeast Colorado, combined with radiational cooling should support patchy/areas of fog from Limon southward. Saturday will be warm and dry, but a weak dry cool front will push across the plains during the day. Despite this front, we`ll see a well mixed airmass and thus temperatures climbing well above seasonal normals and into the lower to mid 80s over most of the plains. Northerly breezes gusting to around 20-25 mph will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the plains east of I-25. For Sunday, temperatures will be just a tad cooler in the post- frontal airmass. An isolated shower/weak storm will be possible in the mountains mainly south of I-70, with just enough moisture building under the ridge. Monday will likely feature the warmest day of October, with excellent model agreement that we`ll reach the mid to upper 80s across the plains and I-25 Corridor. That pushes us near record highs for the date. The record high for both Denver and Fort Collins is 87F set in 2024 so we should be very close to that, but Boulder`s record is 90F set in 1947 and doubt we would touch that given thermal profiles and only light downslope flow. Once again, we can`t rule out a late day shower over the high country given such strong heating and a little moisture getting trapped under the ridge. A weak disturbance is still on track to push across the state by Tuesday, which will bring a chance of showers and a weak storm or two to the mountains. With a little forcing to work with, I wouldn`t be surprised to see a couple sneak onto the adjacent plains before ending Tuesday night. Models maintain excellent agreement on the synoptic pattern with generally flat upper level ridging and light downslope flow into late next week. That would spell a continuation of much above normal temperatures and more dry weather. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/... Issued at 1132 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 VFR through the TAF period. Winds are generally light this morning, but should swing to the southeast with the next couple hours with a slight increase in speeds. At DEN and APA, guidance does have a period of stronger southerly flow late this afternoon into the evening, before weakening near midnight. Winds should turn towards the west with weaker speeds on Saturday morning, with a weak cold front shifting winds to the north or northeast by around 18z Saturday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...Hiris