360
FXUS65 KBOU 162121 CCA
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion...corrected typos
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
320 PM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light alpine snow showers, producing a few inches of
  accumulation for the higher elevations into Tuesday morning.

- Significant warm are dry period ahead from Tuesday into the
  weekend. All-time new March record high temperatures a good bet
  for the plains Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

- Hot and dry weather will sustain prolonged high fire danger for
the plains on Tuesday and Wednesday, then across much of the
forecast area Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

We have just the rest of today and tonight for some normal-ish
March weather before excessive heat and dryness return.

Currently, there is some light to moderate snow falling in the
mountains. This looks to be the case through the rest of this
afternoon and tonight, ending Tuesday morning. With the snow
ending in the mountains on Tuesday, that will be it for any
precipitation for the entire CWA through the week and the
upcoming weekend.

Will also let the high wind warning for the mountains of Summit
County, the Mosquito Range, and the Indian Peaks expire at 2 PM
MDT this afternoon.

Models have a strong northerly jet maximum, up to 140 knots over the
CWA tonight. By Tuesday, the flow aloft is northwesterly with a
595 dam high over the southwestern United States. This feature
pushes slowly eastward with upper ridging over Colorado through
Saturday. The flow aloft stays pretty strong through Thursday,
then weakens for Friday and Saturday. This all means abnormally
high temperatures for our forecast area Tuesday through Saturday.

Record heat is expected especially for Thursday, Friday and
Saturday. It looks like Denver could set new all-time March high
temperatures any of those days. Denver`s record high reading for
March is 84 degrees. It was set back on March 26, 1971.

The dryness and heat will make elevated and extreme fire weather
conditions all weak on into the weekend.

For the later days, Friday through Monday, the upper ridge center
pushes a bit south into Mexico and weakens.  The flow aloft over the
CWA becomes more zonal with a weak trough to move across early
Sunday. This may allow a cooler airmass to move into the CWA for
Sunday. Temperatures may cool to around 70 degrees for highs on
Sunday in Denver, still around 15 degrees above normal, but cooler
then Saturday`s mid 80s which are about 30 degrees above normal.
They may be some minor alpine showers for late day Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Winds are around 7kts or less at all the airports late this
morning. Winds should start to pick up at KBJC from the NW over
the next couple of hours, occasionally gusting around 21kts this
afternoon. Winds at KDEN and KAPA are a bit more complicated.
Models vary on if the stronger NW winds will mix down to the
surface this afternoon in these areas. Looking at soundings near
KDEN, there`s still an inversion that would have to erode in order
for the winds to mix down here, which is possible as the sun comes
out. There`s also the complication of winds draining off the snow
covered Palmer into Denver, potentially keeping wind more S/SE.
Right now, we`re keeping winds more to the NE this afternoon at
KDEN, but there is potential for winds to shift either SE or NW.
Winds this evening and overnight will go more towards drainage,
before picking back up from the WNW by late tomorrow morning. KBJC
could start blowing as early as the early to mid morning, but
confidence is higher in gusty winds starting around 16Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

We went with a Red Flag Warning for the northern and eastern
border zones Tuesday afternoon where the expected winds look
strong enough and the grass fuels are very dry.

Minimum relative humidity values will be in the 5-12 percent
range across the plains every afternoon Wednesday through
Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected over the
plains Wednesday through Saturday. The critical fire weather
conditions get into the mountains and high valleys as well
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 2 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ034.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ238-242-
244-248>251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...AP
FIRE WEATHER...66

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion