979
FXUS65 KBOU 211851
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1151 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weekend, before another big warm-up.

- Snow chances return to the mountains mid-week.

- Potential for multiple days of elevated to critical fire weather
  conditions in the plains next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 1125 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Very above normal temperatures will return next week and dry
conditions will persist for much of the area. Upper level ridging
will build in behind the trough that helped give us some snow
yesterday. As the ridging builds over the area, models have 700mb
temps warming around 4C to 8C degrees each afternoon through
Tuesday. This puts Tuesday at near record values for highs, with
forecast temps reaching the upper 60s to lowers 70s across the
plains. The current record high in Denver for February 24th
(Tuesday) is 71 degrees set in 1995. The chance for tying or
breaking this record in Denver on Tuesday is high (~75%). The
well above normal temperatures and continued dry conditions will
lead to low RHs for much of next week. Winds on Monday look to
stay on the weaker side, but winds on Tuesday start to increase
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of our next system.
Models are showing cross barrier flow around 50 to 60kts at ridge
top for Tuesday. Conditions don`t look super great for mountain
wave development, but they look concerning enough that we`ll have
to keep a close eye on it as we go into next week. Winds will
definitely be gusty at the higher elevations on Tuesday, but the
extent of the eastward progression down the slope is uncertain.
Right now, conditions are below critical fire weather thresholds
(strongest winds do not coincide with the lowest RHs), but we will
continue to monitor fire weather potential for Tuesday.

We`ll see a slight decrease in temperatures on Wednesday as an upper
level shortwave moves towards the area and the ridge breaks down a
bit. A surface low is expected to develop to our north ahead of the
shortwave and track southeast near our area on Wednesday. As the low
tracks SE, a cold front will move through the area on Wednesday,
bringing breezy NW winds with gusts around 35 to 50 mph across the
plains. Pacific moisture will stream into the mountains ahead of the
shortwave. Orographic lift from the W/NW winds and lift from the
shortwave will bring back snow potential for the mountains late
Tuesday into Thursday. A small handful of ensemble members are
showing some of this activity moving off the mountains and into
the plains late Wednesday into Thursday. We have low Pops to
account for that, but the precip will most likely remain in the
mountains and if it can move off into the plains, amounts look
very low.

Windy conditions will continue for Thursday and Friday out of the
west/northwest. The strongest winds in our area will be in the north
ans northeast plains, near the WY and NE borders. While winds will
likely be strong, chances remain low (

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion