574
FXUS65 KBOU 081945
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1245 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with well above normal temperatures through Monday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected Monday
  afternoon especially across the plains near the Wyoming-
  Nebraska border

- Light snow possible for the northern mountains Monday night
  through Tuesday night.

- Best chance for mountain snow will be Wednesday and Thursday
  with lower chances Friday. Some rain and snow showers possible
  across the I-25 corridor Thursday into Friday as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 1206 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

While high cloud cover was fairly widespread to start the morning,
most of the CWA is back under partly cloudy skies to start the
afternoon. Temperatures are generally in the low to mid 60s and
should warm a few more degrees by the end of the afternoon hours.

Monday should be similarly warm and dry, with a little more wind
across the area as the ridge flattens and zonal flow aloft
increases a bit. Main question of the day is if/how much cloud
cover impacts temperatures during the afternoon as a wave cloud
attempts to develop during the day. Temperatures should again
reach the mid to upper 60s, and it wouldn`t be surprising to see a
few spots hit 70F. The warm/dry conditions combined with some
gusty winds along the northern CWA border could lead to critical
fire weather conditions as well.

A cold front is expected to bring slightly cooler weather to the
region by Tuesday, but mild temperatures still look likely across
the plains during most of the upcoming week... as west-
southwesterly flow persists ahead of a very slow moving upper low.
Guidance is in somewhat better agreement that most of
Tuesday/Tuesday night will remain dry, with only a few light snow
showers across the higher elevations. At least one piece of that
upper trough is expected to push into the region by Wednesday or
Thursday, leading to better chances of light to moderate mountain
snow. There could be a few rain/snow showers across the I-25
corridor by Thursday or Friday, but only about 30-40% of ensemble
members across the 12z model suite produce meaningful QPF in
DEN. There may be slightly better chances for precip Friday into
Saturday as the main wave finally ejects - though in general
models keep this well to the south. The NBM continues to lag
behind and I would expect continued shifts to the lower elevations
PoPs in the Thursday to Saturday time period.

Behind this system, mild temperatures look likely to return (or
perhaps just continue) as most guidance tries to develop ridging
over the area once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1036 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this period. Winds this
afternoon will stay light and turn from NW to NE at DEN. This
evening, winds will become southeast and then eventually drainage
at DEN from 05z onwards. At APA, W to NW winds will prevail until
becoming variable around 01z and then drainage around 04z. A
typical diurnal pattern will then be in place through the end of
this period for both DEN and APA. BJC will generally stay with WNW
winds through this evening before changing to drainage winds
around 02z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1206 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Elevated/near-critical fire weather conditions are likely to
continue through the afternoon hours across the
northern/northeastern plains today, mainly along and north of a
line from Buckeye to Fort Morgan to Akron. Both RH and wind gusts
are near Red Flag criteria and will remain fairly steady through
most of the afternoon hours today.

Slightly drier and breezier conditions are forecast tomorrow.
There is still some uncertainty regarding the overlap between the
strongest gusts 30-35 mph and lowest RH during the afternoon
hours. While GEFS Hot Dry Windy Index values are above the 95th
percentile in the far northeast corner, there is considerably more
spread further west, where NBM/HREF wind gusts probabilities are
lower. While an upgrade of the existing Fire Weather Watch was
considered, we ultimately wanted to wait one more model cycle
before making a full or partial upgrade.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for COZ238-242-248-250-251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...MV/Hiris
FIRE WEATHER...Hiris

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion