870
FXUS65 KBOU 291828
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1228 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be present in
  the high country through Wednesday due to warm, dry and windy
  conditions.

- Little change in the forecast pattern through Friday. The only
  exception will be for a chance of thunderstorms over the plains
  on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

For today, an upper level trough will extend from the nrn Rockies
into California.  This will allow for the continuation of dry SW
flow aloft over the area. Across nern CO, another weak cool front
was moving across currently, however, low level moisture was
decreasing behind it.  Thus do not expect any tstm activity across
the plains this afternoon or tonight.  Meanwhile 850-700 temps do
cool a few degrees today so aftn highs across the plans will be in
the mid 80`s to lower 90`s

By Tue, SW flow aloft will continue as a disturbance moves from the
Great Basin into Wyoming by Tue night.  At the sfc, the low level
flow will become S/SSE across the plains as a lee trough develops
along the I-25 Corridor. As a result, this will allow some return
of lower level moisture by aftn with a pseudo dryline setting up
just east of the I-25 Corridor. Analysis of soundings continue to
show there is still a fairly decent cap in place so not sure about
how much tstm activity there will be in the aftn across the
plains. Low level moisture does continue to increase by evening
over the nern plains with MLCAPE rising to around 1500 j/kg. If
cap can be broken then may see sct tstms develop by early evening
mainly along and north of a Greeley to Fort Morgan to Akron line.
Meanwhile shear profile is favorable enough for a few marginal svr
storms. Highs on Tue will be in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s
across the plains.

For Wed thru Fri, the flow aloft will continue from the SW. Overall,
still don`t see much moisture embedded in the flow so the higher
terrain will likely remain dry.  Across the plains, a sfc lee trogh
will remain over the plains.  Although there will be some low level
moisture and favorable CAPE over portions of the plains, there is
still a decent cap.  Thus any tstm activity will probably be rather
isold.  Highs across the plains will be in the upper 80`s to mid
90`s each day.

Looking ahead to the 4th of July,  the flow aloft will become more
westerly as a weak system moves across the nrn Rockies.  This may
allow for a cool front to move across nern CO Fri night into Sat.
Depending on how much low level moisture there is behind this front
may lead to a slight chc of tstms across the plains by aftn.  Across
the higher terrain is still looks mainly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Wind direction will once again be a bit tricky this afternoon. Winds
are currently gusting up to 30KT at KAPA from the southwest. At
KDEN, winds are E-ESE at the moment, and KBJC is experiencing NE
winds. Much like yesterday, there is a circulation situated
between KAPA and KDEN, and there are two possible scenarios. The
first scenario, and the one that high-res models have favored over
the last couple afternoons, is that southwesterly winds aloft mix
down to the surface across the entire Denver metro area. However,
model guidance has a tendency to struggle with cyclone days due
to overmixing. The second scenario would involve a cyclone
continuing to be reinforced over the next few hours, which would
eventually bring winds around counterclockwise to the NE at KDEN
around 21Z. Winds will transition to SSW drainage flow by 06Z, and
start out S-SSE tomorrow morning.

Smoke concentrations from the wildfires in western CO and the
Southwest U.S. have remained relatively low through this morning and
there have not been impacts to slant-range visibility at this time.
However, this could quickly change as plumes evolve and smoke
continues to be advected northeast. Smoke concentrations are
projected to increase around 00Z, as the sun angle lowers,
possibly impacting slant-range visibility through dusk.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue across
the higher terrain this afternoon into the early evening hours.

Tuesday will see more elevated to critical fire weather conditions
over the hgher terrain so have issued a Fire Weather Watch for the
afternoon into the early evening hours.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions look likely to
continue across most of the higher elevations through Friday,
with the potential for some of the warmest/driest air to reach the
area by late in the week. There is also some concern about fuels
status along the northern Foothills and most of the I-25
corridor/Palmer Divide...and if fuels status changes over the
next few days, some fire weather highlights may need to be
expanded into those regions going forward.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for COZ211>214-216>218.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ212>214-216.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...AA
FIRE WEATHER...RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion