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531 FXUS65 KBOU 142313 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 513 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot weather continues through this weekend. - Prolonged hot and dry conditions will bring fire weather concerns, although we`ll likely stay shy of Red Flag criteria. - Monsoonal moisture initially lacking with only isolated to scattered afternoon/early evening storms in the mountains through Saturday. Dry plains. - More significant monsoonal moisture and cooler temperatures expected toward Monday and Tuesday, when a threat of locally heavy rainfall arrives. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026 The rinse and repeat (without the rain, of course) forecast will hold strong through Friday. The elongated ridge extending from he lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio River Valley through the Central Rockies will essentially reorganize and center itself over Wyoming and Colorado again by Friday and Saturday. This means a continuation of light, dry, and subsident easterly flow over the forecast area. There is slight moderation in the low/mid level thermal ridges as this reorganization occurs, leading to just a couple degrees of cooling in most areas Wednesday through Friday. That still means well above normal temperatures with highs mostly in the mid 90s for the plains and I-25 Urban Corridor, mostly 80s for the foothills and high valleys, and upper 60s and 70s higher mountains. Isolated to scattered showers and storms can still be expected in the mountains most days, as the high country will reside on the edge of weak monsoonal moisture and instability. Meanwhile, the plains will remain too dry and subsident with mostly clear skies prevailing. Southeast breezes, in conjunction with the heat and stress on vegetation, means persistent risk of fire growth and potentially long burn periods well into the evening hours each day. That`s despite staying below Red Flag conditions as the wind component won`t reach thresholds in the mountains, while the humidity component will remain above thresholds over the breezier plains along/east of I-25. Things get more interesting early next week as we are now more certain of the eventual arrival of monsoonal moisture. Model ensembles show just a slight uptick toward Sunday, but a greater push of moisture by Monday and Tuesday. That means a higher chance of showers and storms across the forecast area, along with an increasing threat of locally heavy rainfall. Deep layer moisture is advertised to increase with ensemble average precipitable water (PW) values increasing to around 1 inch for Denver by Sunday, and then up to 1.2 inches by Monday. At the same time, we`ll likely see a front push southward with an increase in upslope flow which typically focuses more widespread shower/storm coverage near the Front Range. Of course there will be the usual challenges of stability in this environment, but it`s certainly looking like a much more active weather pattern. The increased convection and front(s) also support cooler temperatures (highs likely in the 80s for the plains) by Tuesday. There may be even greater chances of heavy rainfall outside of this forecast period (toward the middle of next week), so we`ll keep an eye on this potentially significant transition from hot and dry weather to wet and stormy. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 509 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Gusty southeast winds are currently at all terminals, with speeds up to 25 kts at times. Expect this to continue through the evening, before more southerly winds arrive by 05Z/06Z. Expect a similar pattern for tomorrow, with light and VRB winds in the morning before southeast returns by 17Z/18Z. Winds could be gusting up to 25 kts by 21Z. No ceiling issues expected. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...MAI