829
FXUS65 KBOU 252349
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
549 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another unseasonably warm day Thursday with locally critical
  fire weather conditions, but cooling and gusty northeast winds
  behind an afternoon cold front Thursday afternoon.

- Some light precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning.
  Much cooler.

- Temperatures warm well above normal again for the weekend into
  early next week.

- Signs of a pattern change by the mid to latter portions of next
  week, but highest chances of meaningful precipitation confined
  to the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Summer warmth in full force across the forecast area this
afternoon, with record highs falling left and right and
approaching all time March record highs once again. For tonight,
we`ll see another unseasonably warm night with some locations at
the base of the foothills potentially staying in the 60s once
again. That just shows how anomalously warm this airmass is, when
nighttime lows still exceed our normal max temperatures (today`s
normal is 59F in Denver). Most other plains locations will see mid
40s through the 50s however, with a little more pronounced
inversion.

Even those inversions will be quite shallow though and thus
expect another quick warmup Thursday ahead of a cold front. We`re
still uncertain about the timing of the front, although it appears
we could see a weak pre-frontal shift to the north or northeast
in the morning across the plains, followed by the real cold front
during the afternoon. Given the shallow inversions to start the
day, we`ve bumped up the high temperatures from previous forecasts
which now pushes us to record or near record highs across the
mountains and along the I-25 Corridor. Denver will be pushing up
against the daily record (and old monthly March record of 84F)
set in 1971, so the chances there are rather low (45 mph possible
with the front. Winds settle down overnight, but with mid level
instability, upslope, and enough moisture advection we`ll actually
have a chance of light showers especially in/near the Front Range
and I-25 Corridor. These don`t look significant, but at least a
small 20-40% chance of a tenth of an inch liquid equivalent
in/near the foothills. Temperatures would turn cold enough for a
dusting of snow potential in the foothills and even a few flakes
possible on the adjacent plains by late Thursday night and Friday
morning.

Friday will be a much cooler day, with high temperatures likely
staying a few degrees below normal for a change.

That cooling will be very short lived as lee troughing develops
by the weekend and warm westerly flow dominates our weather under
a flat ridge. Highs are expected to rise back into the lower 80s
across the I-25 Corridor and plains by Sunday. Mountain areas will
also warm again, continuing the melt of our already depleted
snowpack.

For those looking for a pattern change, the various ensembles
continue to point toward more troughiness, cooler temperatures,
and a better chance of more meaningful precipitation for the
middle and end of next week. It starts benignly with just a hint
of subtropical moisture and a few light showers starting by
Monday and Tuesday, mainly in the mountains. There is agreement
that more beneficial precipitation arrives for the mountains by
Wednesday and Thursday, as ensembles for a change show above
normal precipitation anomalies during the latter half of next
week. For the plains, it`s more uncertain as we`ll be on the edge
of the storm track. We are more likely to be sheltered by the
mountains (~70% chance) due to southwest flow aloft, but if the
storm track is slightly farther south we may be able to tag some
upslope with beneficial precipitation (30% chance). Fingers
crossed for those that want a change back to spring.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. A boundary is currently
moving through APA and DEN, transitioning winds from light and VRB
to SE quicker than guidance anticipated. Expect light SE to E
winds for the next hour or so, before a more prominent boundary
will push slightly stronger SE winds to both terminals (generally
below 15 kts). Drainage winds return around 05/06Z tonight.

Some uncertainty with winds tomorrow as guidance still tries to
hone in on a specific time for the cold front. As of right now, it
looks like the front could arrive at DEN anytime between 21Z and
02Z (BJC and APA will be an hour later). The timing of the front
will determine how winds behave beforehand. With an earlier timing
of the front, expect a light (

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion