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867 FXUS65 KBOU 201135 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 435 AM MST Fri Feb 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to briefly moderate snowfall expected across the mountains through Saturday morning. - Scattered light snow showers likely (60% chance) across I-25 Corridor and plains this afternoon into the evening. - Dry most of the weekend into early next week. Chilly start to the weekend, but a strong warming trend Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/... Issued at 1102 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026 A disturbance will move across the area on Fri with best QG ascent staying mainly over srn CO. Meanwhile, a sfc low will be near Denver Fri morning and then move eastward into east central CO by late aftn. Overall, the low level flow will be mainly from the southeast across the plains and turn more northerly along the I-25 Corridor by mid to late aftn. Cross-sections show a dry airmass in the lower levels as the system moves across which will likely limit QPF. Ensemble data from both the GFS and ECMWF only show a few hundredths in most places, across the plains, so snow amounts will generally be an inch or less. In the mtns, snowfall will also be on the light side in most areas as well. As the disturbance moves east of the area Fri night, snow chances will gradually decrease in the evening. On Sat, drier air in NW flow aloft will move into the area with only a slight chc of snow showers in the mtns. Highs will be near seasonal levels. On Sun, dry WNW flow aloft will be over the area. A cold front may move across the plains Sat night into early Sun. As a result, this front could keep highs in the 30`s over the far nern plains for Sun aftn while readings stay near seasonal levels closer to the front range. Looking ahead to Mon and Tue, the flow aloft will become more westerly as low level downslope flow develops. This will allow for much warmer temps from the foothills across the plains. In addition, will see increasing wind over the higher terrain. Cross-sections show only some mid and high level moisture embedded in the flow so no precip is expected either day. Finally, latest data suggest an upper level trough in NW flow may affect the area by next Wed. This feature would bring a chc of snow to the mtns with a slight chc of showers to the plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/... Issued at 431 AM MST Fri Feb 20 2026 VFR this morning, followed by chances of MVFR/IFR after 18z. A weak Denver cyclone is in place this morning, which has kept winds light and at times northwesterly at DEN/BJC. That cyclone isn`t expected to move much this morning, but a better defined lee cyclone is likely to eventually turn winds to a more consistent northerly component later this morning. Winds are then expected to slowly turn counter-clockwise through the rest of the TAF period. Main concern will be coverage of stratus and light snow around the terminals. Guidance does not have significant QPF, but would favor at least a few snow showers around the area this afternoon. Recent models strongly favor a roughly 22-03z period for snow, with stratus lingering through at least 06-09z. Drier air works in towards Saturday morning, with VFR conditions likely during the day. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...Hiris