790
FXUS65 KBOU 301125
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
525 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue today.

- Critical fire weather conditions for the mountain valleys, Front
  Range Foothills, and adjacent plains today.

- Cooler by Tuesday with snow in the mountains and a chance of
  precipitation over the plains. Chances for precipitation
  increase for Wednesday.

- Potential for another system to impact the region by the end of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 1239 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Temperatures didn`t quite make it to the forecasted high at KDEN
Sunday (80F), but we did end up tying the previous record high of
79 degrees last set in 1967. Nonetheless, it was another
abnormally warm day across the forecast area, and Monday is still
expected to be about the same. We do expect westerly winds aloft
to increase through the morning, and with a surface trough keeping
westerly downslope winds in place, this will translate to
critical fire weather conditions developing for portions of the
foothills and adjacent plains as well as North and Middle Park
(more in fire discussion). Increasing mid-level moisture will
support low chances (10-15%) for high-based virga showers once
again. No precipitation is expected, but gusty outflows up to 35
mph will be possible with any passing virga showers. A shortwave
is expected to traverse the northern Rockies through the
afternoon, with an associated cold front sliding south across
Colorado late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Latest trends
show precipitation over the lower elevations holding off until a
little later than previously advertised, with northerly winds
keeping things dry south of the Cheyenne Ridge due to downsloping,
and lacking low-level moisture in place until later in the day.
Therefore, should just see some gusty winds (35-45 mph) colder
temperatures, and increasing cloud cover with the initial frontal
push. Locations along the Wyoming border south to about Fort
Collins may end up with some light precip due to modest
frontogenesis expected Tuesday morning.

Moisture is expected to deepen throughout the day on Tuesday as
Pacific moisture continues to increase within the southwesterly flow
aloft. PVA will also increase ahead of another approaching shortwave
that will increase lift across the region. There are still some
uncertainties with the position of a 500 mb jet. The ECMWF would put
us in the right exit region which would be unfavorable for precip on
the plains, whereas the GFS would have us in closer proximity to its
left exit region that would support better chances for our lower
elevations. Despite some minor differences between guidance, the
current forecast calls for up to .4" of QPF for the lower elevations
and between .5" to 1.2" of QPF to our mountains through Thursday
morning. While temperatures will mostly be too warm for snow across
the lower elevations, the NBM continues to show a 30-40% chance
for up to .1" of snow for our northeast corner. Snow levels will
be low enough to support snowfall down to roughly 8,500 feet, but
the majority of snow will fall above 10,000. Snow totals have come
down slightly with this forecast, but the northern mountains are
still expected to see about six to ten inches of snow
accumulations, while the central mountains can expect between five
to eight inches.

A more active pattern will continue into the weekend, though there
remains much variability between guidance still. A more potent
upper-level trough is expected to drop out of the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, potentially impacting Colorado by Friday
and into the weekend. Variability in it`s north vs southward
extent could mean large differences for what we see across the
CWA. We will have to watch and see how things trend through the
week, but we are looking at potential for at least some additional
light snow for the mountains, and more rain for the lower
elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR to prevail through the TAF period. South to southwest winds will
continue this morning and then turn westerly 18-20Z as slightly
stronger west winds aloft mix down. Gust of 15 to 25 knots will be
possible, with the stronger winds expected at BJC. Like the past two
afternoons, wind direction may become muddled at times this
afternoon. After 03-05Z, winds are expected to return to a south-
southwest drainage direction. A cold front will bring a gusty wind
shift to the north-northeast 11-12Z Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1239 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Another day of record-breaking temperatures is expected on
Monday. With increasing winds and relative humidities expected to
range from 8% to 16% across the majority of the forecast area, a
Red Flag Warning is in place from 11 AM to 8 PM for the Front
Range Foothills and adjacent plains. Additionally, we have added
North and Middle Park into the warning and removed metro Denver
as wind speeds have trended downwards for the metro area with
this forecast package, and RH has lowered for the mountain
valleys. However, with RH as low as 8% expected across the metro
area, there will be elevated fire weather conditions in place
through the afternoon across all of the lower elevations.

A cold front is expected early Tuesday that will bring cooler
temperatures to the forecast area, snowfall to the mountains, and
widespread precipitation chances to the plains. This will keep
critical fire weather conditions at bay for at least a few days.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ211-213-215-216-238-239-242-243.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...Meier
FIRE WEATHER...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion