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262 FXUS65 KBOU 310842 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 242 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier weather will prevail for all areas on Sunday. - A chance for strong thunderstorms returns for Monday and Tuesday afternoon, with locally heavy rain possible on Monday. - Trending a little warmer and drier by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 222 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026 Today should be the quietest day of the upcoming forecast period. The trough axis responsible for Saturday`s storms has lifted into central Wyoming, leaving most of Colorado in a drier zonal flow. It`s possible enough mid-level moisture remains for a few weak, high-based showers this afternoon across the mountains, but little else is in the forecast during the day. Temperatures look to end up near or a little above normal across the plains. We should see a transition to southwesterly flow aloft on Monday as weak ridging builds across the southern Great Plains, while the previously mentioned trough remains nearly stationary over Montana. Gradual moisture advection is expected as easterly surface winds develop Monday morning, leading to a broad area of instability developing over eastern Colorado by the early afternoon. However, it`s still a little too far away to get into any meaningful details given the uncertainty in the low- level/boundary layer moisture profile. Like yesterday, both CAMs and global models have a rather large spread in Td forecasts across most of eastern Colorado. Assuming we do get sufficient moisture... forecast soundings would favor a few supercells with sufficient instability, slightly curved hodographs, and ample deep layer shear. For now, the highest probability of severe weather is still east of I-25 (roughly along/east of a line from Limon to Fort Morgan), though confidence is rather low at this time. The synoptic pattern doesn`t change significantly on Tuesday, with a continued easterly surface flow slowly advecting moisture into the region. There would once again be at least a conditional severe threat across most of the lower elevations, though issues with stratus/capping would also be possible. By mid-week, the cutoff low over Montana finally lifts off to the north, while the Great Plains ridge slowly drifts east, leaving most of Colorado in rather weak flow aloft. Wednesday should still see scattered showers and a few storms across the Front Range and plains with enough moisture/instability around, with lowering severe chances as shear magnitudes decrease substantially. A slow drying and warming trend still looks likely for the latter half of the week, but isolated showers/storms are still expected across the higher elevations. Temperatures should also warm a bit in this period, with forecast highs back in the mid/upper 80s across the plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/... Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some gusty WNW winds will persist at BJC for a couple of hours, with light and variable winds at DEN/APA... before drainage takes over by 08-09z. A gradual clockwise turn is expected on Sunday, with WNW developing during the morning hours before eventually becoming more N/NE in the afternoon. Another slow turn to drainage is likely near or after 06z Sunday night. There is a slight chance of a weak high-based shower Sunday afternoon but not enough to include in the TAF at this time. No ceiling or visibility concerns are anticipated. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hiris AVIATION...Hiris