063
FXUS65 KBOU 261813
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1113 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry for the plains today with elevated to near-
  critical fire weather conditions over the southern foothills,
  South Park, southern Denver metro, and Palmer Divide.

- The mountains will see snow beginning tonight and lasting
  through Sunday morning. The heaviest snow amounts will be in the
  Park and Gore Ranges with a Winter Storm Watch issued there.

- Lower elevations will see light snow Saturday night into Sunday
  morning. Much colder temperatures expected to accompany the
  snow.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 333 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

Continued warm temperatures across the plains today. Elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions are possible across the
southern foothills, South Park, southern Denver metro and the
Palmer Divide.

Have continued the Winter Storm Watch for zone 31 for late
tonight through late Saturday night, but a prolonged period of
snow accompanied by gusty winds, especially early in the event, is
likely. The heaviest snow is expected for the Park and Gore
Ranges, but snow will spread across most of the Colorado mountains
and onto the plains Saturday evening through Sunday morning. The
snow develops behind a cold front that moves into the plains
Saturday evening. Behind the front, temperatures will be much
colder given the mild temperatures we`ve had throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 333 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

A weak ridge aloft within the southwesterly flow will move over
Colorado on Friday. This will bring in drier air with slightly
cooler high temperatures. Some light snow showers are possible in
the Park Range mountains but the rest of the mountains and plains
should remain dry during the day.

The main concern on Friday will be elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions. This is discussed further in the fire weather
section below.

A combination of a trough over the Southwest US and a trough
approaching from the Pacific Northwest will move towards Colorado
late Friday night. This will bring a wave of Pacific moisture to
the mountains of Colorado. Moderate to briefly heavy snow will
arrive after midnight in the Park and Gore Ranges. Snow will then
spread across most of the Colorado mountains late Friday night and
through the day on Saturday. Strong mid level frontogenesis will
move across northern Colorado Saturday evening through early
Sunday morning. Across the plains, there will be a cold front at
the surface will will push through around the same time dropping
temperatures quickly. Behind the front, northeast winds will
develop which will create upslope flow. All of these factors will
come together to create a couple bands of snow that will spread
across the area oriented from southwest to northeast. Ensemble
guidance has been consistent with regard to QPF across the plains
with roughly 0.15-0.20" across the northern Denver metro and
around 0.25" on the south side of the metro. With the light
upslope flow, 2-5" of snow is forecast for the western I-25
corridor and Palmer Divide while 1-4" of snow is forecast on the
east side of the I-25 corridor. Across the eastern plains, 0-2" of
snow is forecast. There will be moderate snow amounts in the
Front Range mountains and foothills. Some of the higher mountains
and ski areas may see close to a foot of snow. With the help from
the moderate to heavy snow late on Friday night, the Park and Gore
Ranges will see the highest snow amounts. Therefore, a Winter
Storm Watch was issued for forecast zone 31.

Cold temperatures are expected Sunday night with the fresh snow
and clear skies. Single digit lows are forecast across the plains
with the usual cold spots of Greeley and Limon potentially
getting close to 0 F.

Next work week will see dry conditions with temperatures
increasing. Highs will be above normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1038 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Southerly winds should persist for DEN
and APA for the next couple of hours, before a cyclone develops
and allow light and VRB winds for DEN this afternoon. APA should
transition to SW, with gusts up to 25kt. However, depending on
exactly where the cyclone develops, APA could see a couple of
hours of VRB winds as well. For BJC, VRB winds will continue for
the next hour. Gusty SW winds are expected as early as 21Z, with
gusts up to 25 kts is possible.

This evening, DEN and APA will see SW winds, while winds at BJC
are a little uncertain. Short-range guidance has indicated a few
hours of light and VRB, however winds could stay from the west all
night.

Tomorrow morning, gusty SW winds up to 25 kts are possible for all
TAF sites, before transitioning to NW ahead of a cold front.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Sunday
for COZ031.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stark
DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...MAI

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion