National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
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133 FXUS65 KBOU 091744 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1044 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Record warmth possible next work week with dry conditions. - Tuesday and Friday will see elevated to critical fire weather conditions due to very mild, dry, and breezy conditions. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 238 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 Strong northwesterly flow throughout the troposphere is over northeastern Colorado currently. Gusts have reached 50-55 mph across the far northeast plains. Gusts along the I-25 corridor have generally stayed below 40 mph. These gusts will stick around until sunset (~5pm) and then will rapidly weaken as mixing deteriorates. Tonight, clear skies and light winds will lead to chilly temperatures. Some of the usual cold spots on the plains, like Greeley and Limon, will see lows in the teens. The cool air remains in place tomorrow as highs will generally stay in the upper 40s to around 50 across the plains. A strong and broad ridge aloft will be over Colorado Monday through Friday. Confidence in near-record highs is growing as ECMWF ensembles have almost all members showing a high of 68 and above in Denver for ever single day of the work week. There is no chance of precipitation and relative humidity will be very low. With such mild and dry conditions, the concern becomes fire weather. Luckily, winds will be light Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday and no critical fire weather conditions are expected. Winds will be gustier on Tuesday and especially Friday. Elevated fire weather conditions will occur on Tuesday and Friday appears it could have critical fire weather conditions across the plains if the southerly winds do materialize. The variance in the ensembles guidance grows greatly starting next weekend. This is because a trough will move onshore across the West Coast of the US and will move towards Colorado by late Saturday. Most ensembles seem to weaken this trough and have it largely miss Colorado. If this were to happen, mild temperatures and dry conditions would continue across the plains. Some ensemble members take a stronger trough that cuts off and moves into or near Colorado. Widespread precipitation would be possible in those scenarios. The variables that seem to have the highest confidence are healthy mountain snowfall and windy conditions across our entire forecast area next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/... Issued at 1039 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be light throughout the TAF period with speeds less than 10 knots. Normal diurnal wind patterns will exist. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Danielson AVIATION...Danielson