113
FXUS65 KBOU 060759
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1259 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow continues in the high country overnight and develops over
  lower elevations Friday morning. Difficult travel expected for
  mountains, foothills and Palmer Divide with moderate to heavy
  snow at times.

- Snow trends are increasing for metro Denver. Morning commuters
  should prepare for slick conditions.

- Snow tapers off Friday afternoon/evening north to south. Milder
  and drier weather expected Saturday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1251 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

An upper level trough will move across the area Fri into Fri night.
An upper level low will be over swrn CO by 12Z Fri and then move
ENE into nern CO by Fri aftn and then into west central NE by Fri
evening. QG fields still have favorable QG ascent affecting the
area thru Fri aftn and then weakening by Fri evening. Meanwhile,
cross-sections continue to show N or NNE low level flow thru the
aftn as a secondary front moves across the plains. Data from OOZ
models have increased QPF across most of the Plains, Palmer
Divide and srn Foothills as well as the Denver Metro area. As a
result, there appears to be an increasing chance of heavier snow
affecting portions of the Denver metro extending ene across
portions of the Plains. Latest data also has snow developing
by 10Z along the I-25 Corridor from Denver north to Fort Collins
which could impact the morning commute as heavier snow moves in
after 12z.

Based on current trends, have upgraded the southern Foothills to
a warning and have decided to issue an advisory for the Denver
metro due to potential impacts in the morning when heavier snow
may occur. Further east over the plains, heavier likely won`t
develop until midday/early aftn, so will hold off on an advisory
for now as not sure exactly where a heavier snow band may develop
to the north and northwest of the upper level low`s path.

By Friday night, snowfall should gradually diminish by early evening
along the front range but will continue over the northeast plains
thru mid evening.  Will also see snow continue in the I-70 mtn
corridor and srn Foothills thru mid evening before ending by
midnight.

Moving into Sat, will see drier air spread across the area in NW
flow aloft.  Biggest concern for Sat will be high temps, depending
on how much snow cover there is from the I-25 Corridor across the
plains.  Where snow cover exits highs may stay in the lower to mid
40`s while areas with less snow cover may reach the upper 40`s to
lower 50s.  Since at this point I don`t know what the snow cover may
look like, have kept the blended solution in for now which has
readings in the upper 40`s to lower 50s across the plains.

On Sun, mainly dry WNW flow aloft will be across the area as a sfc
lee trough begins to develop east of the mtns.  As a result, this
should lead to warmer temps as downslope low level flow develops,
with readings rising into the lower to mid 60`s over the plains.

For Mon and Tue, westerly flow aloft will be over the area with
downslope low level flow continuing.  This will allow for highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70`s over the plains.  In addition, will see
periods of gusty winds over the higher terrain as well.

By Wed, the flow aloft may become more WNW, with current data
only showing some higher level moisture embedded in the flow.
There will be a cool front moving across the plains Tue night into
Wed morning so aftn highs may drop back into the mid 50`s to
lower 60s across nern CO,

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1057 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Main concern is the trends in snow and duration of potential
moderate snow. Models have all slowed the progression of this
storm system which means a longer snow event. While the onset may
be delayed by an hour or so til 12Z-14Z, we having growing
confidence in moderate snow developing by 15-16Z across the metro
Denver TAF sites. The heaviest will initially be near the
foothills, but spreading east to KDEN by 16Z. That snow is
expected to continue of near moderate intensity with visibility
down to ~1/2SM and Cigs/vertical visibility near 500 feet through
20Z, with a chance it lasts a little longer than that near KAPA
due to better orographcis in northerly flow. Lighter snow
(visibility 1-3SM and cigs 006-012) is then likely to linger til
about 03Z before skies cigs lift and skies clear rather quickly
behind storm system.

One surge of the cold front has already passed, but expect
another surge or two during the overnight to mid morning Friday
with gusts to 20-25 kts. The stronger winds with gusts around 25
kts are then likely to persist 16Z-00Z before diminishing and
turning to light southwest by 06Z Saturday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ030-
032-035-037.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ031.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ033-034.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ036.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 8 PM MST
this evening for COZ039-040-045.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight MST
tonight for COZ041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...20

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion