529
FXUS65 KBOU 060016
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
516 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow develops tonight in the high country, Friday morning for
  the lower elevations. Difficult travel expected for mountains,
  foothills and Palmer Divide with moderate to heavy snow at
  times.

- Lighter accumulations (mostly 1-2", locally 3") anticipated for
  the urban corridor and plains Friday. Morning commuters should
  prepare for slick conditions.

- Snow tapers off Friday afternoon/evening north to south. Milder
  and drier weather expected Saturday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1218 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

The next 24 hours will bring a taste of typical Colorado spring
weather as we transition from today`s warm temperatures and clear
skies to cold and snow on Friday. On satellite, we`re beginning to
see some striations of mid-level cumulus develop in the high
country, with more expansive moisture and showers forming across the
Western Slope. This will progress east through the afternoon, with
snow showers initiating in our mountains early this evening and
increasing through the overnight period when they`ll expand into our
foothills. By this evening, a cold front will drop into the plains,
with temperatures steadily cooling to near freezing by sunrise, and
bringing a gradual moistening of the lower levels. A few snow or
rain/snow showers will be possible overnight for the urban corridor
(mainly north of Denver) but almost all of the snow will hold off
until after daybreak Friday.

Lee cyclogenesis will intensity Friday, although there`s been a
slight weakening trend in the intensity of the surface low in most
model guidance over the past 12-24 hrs. The overall picture remains
largely the same as yesterday, with robust north and north-northwest
flow confining any upslope component to the Palmer Divide and
southern foothills. Nonetheless, strong QG ascent and frontogenesis
will ensure everyone participates in the party to some degree.

Friday morning will see the bulk of the impacts as steady snow
develops across the I-25 corridor and becomes heavier in our
mountains and foothills. Localized snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr can be
expected under the heaviest showers/bands, most likely along and
south of the I-70 mountain/foothills corridor, and across the Palmer
Divide, but will otherwise be lower. Some minor snow accumulations
do look to impact the Friday morning commute around the Denver metro
area, but ambient and road temperatures will likely be rather
marginal with wet bulb values hovering in the 31-34F range much of
the time. Suspect that roadway accumulations for most of the urban
locations will be largely contingent on snowfall intensity. As such,
opting to refrain from any winter headlines for the metro itself as
true accumulations are currently forecast to remain in the 1-3"
range, however commuters should prepare for slick conditions in the
morning regardless. A surge of stronger north winds will develop in
the afternoon as the surface cyclone becomes better defined over NW
Kansas, and this will steadily usher in drier low-level air,
tapering off snowfall from north to south. Total snowfall of 6-14"
is expected in our mountains and foothills (heaviest south of Rocky
Mountain NP), with 3-8" for the Palmer Divide, and generally 1-3"
elsewhere. Northern portions of the I-25 corridor will be less
favored given the downslope flow off the Cheyenne Ridge, and will
thus be closer to the lower end of that range. Similarly,
accumulations should be comparatively limited in the plains where
temperatures will hover in the mid to even upper 30`s, despite a
likely band of greater precipitation extending northeast from the
Palmer Divide into Morgan/Washington/Logan Counties.

Milder and drier weather returns for Saturday, and the warming trend
will continue through Monday as we transition to zonal flow aloft
and a mostly subsident pattern. The high country will see a slight
day-to-day increase in westerly winds as the jet slowly inches
southward into early next week. More distinct troughing then looks
to develop over the northern plains for the middle of the work week,
which should further boost winds in our mountains and foothills.
Unfortunately, ensemble guidance continues to trend away from
widespread precipitation potential for midweek. It`s still non-zero,
but a significant system that would serve to make a dent in our
expanding drought doesn`t appear to be in the books.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 501 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions through tonight. A denver cyclone has situated
itself over the Denver metro which has allowed easterly winds at
DEN and BJC and southerly winds at APA. Expect winds to gradually
turn northeast for DEN and BJC as the cyclone exits the region.

Surface observations show a cold front located in northern Weld
county. The front is progged to reach DEN and BJC by 03Z and APA
by 04Z. Northerly winds gusting up to 35 kts is expected. Recent
hi-res guidance indicates a couple of hours of weaker
northeasterly winds before a resurgence, particularly between
06-09Z. However, due to low confidence of that actually
materializing, have left it out of the TAF for now. Expect
northerly winds to continue through the TAF period.

Ceilings will lower behind the front tonight, dropping to
5000-8000 ft by 06Z/07Z, and 3000-5000 ft between 07Z and 12Z.
Snowfall is expected after that, with ceilings as low as 500 ft
at times. There is a chance for snowbanding Friday morning,
resulting in visibilities dropping down to 1/2 mile if that
occurs. Snow will gradually end by Friday evening, with
visibilities reaching above 6 miles by 00Z/01Z. However, expect
low ceilings of 1000-2000 ft to linger through Friday night.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight MST
Friday night for COZ030-032-035>037.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM MST Friday
for COZ031.

Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MST
Friday night for COZ033-034.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ241.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to midnight MST Friday
night for COZ041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...MAI

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion