National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
Thornton Weather Forecast Today's Forecast Story |
465 FXUS65 KBOU 231743 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1043 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions expected through Christmas Day, with gustier winds for the high country/foothills on Christmas. - Light to locally moderate mountain snow expected Friday into Saturday, favoring the Park Range. - Cooler Saturday through Monday with temperatures falling closer to seasonal averages. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 105 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025 Upper-level ridging and compressional warming are leading to exceptionally warm temperatures across the plains and urban corridor in particular. The thermometer has shot up into the upper 70`s across the Denver metro, with Denver International Airport already registering a high of 76F so far, the second warmest December temperature on record, and a full 6 degrees above our previous daily record for Dec 22nd. Tied to these warm temperatures, it`s no surprise humidity remains in the single digits and lower teens across much of the urban corridor and lower foothills, with west winds gusting 30-60 mph sustaining fairly widespread Red Flag conditions. The strongest of the winds will be through the next 2-3 hours before gusty conditions begin to quickly recede from the lower elevations and into the higher terrain. Fortunately, we`ll lose most of the wind component for Tuesday as the jet edges slightly northward and pressure gradients weaken. Otherwise there will be little change in the synoptic pattern as we remain under the influence of the ridge axis centered to our east. We do look to increase our high cloud cover which should serve to limit the potential warming and keep us a few degrees cooler than today, but high will nonetheless scrape 70F in our warmest locations in/around the Denver metro. It`s much the same story heading into Wednesday and Thursday, with continued warm and dry conditions prevailing across the region. The eastward movement of the SW-NE oriented jet on Christmas Day will provide another compressional warming boost to plains and urban corridor temperatures, likely pushing highs to or slightly above daily record territory once more. The high country and foothills will see a period of stronger winds Thursday-Friday with peak gusts ~50-65 mph, though not nearly as strong nor as widespread downwind as with recent events. Will monitor for areas of elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon, however humidity levels shouldn`t be quite as low. For the mountains, ensembles have generally trended away from much Christmas Day precipitation, instead favoring the Friday through Saturday period when there`s better alignment as far as the deepest moisture. Nonetheless, we`re still talking about southwest flow and relatively modest moisture amounts, which buffers accumulation potential for many of our mountains, especially outside of the Park/Gore Ranges. On the front end of this system, the high valleys are still progged to be rather warm, so could see rain mix in initially. Precipitation chances aren`t great east of the mountains (~25% chance or less for light amounts Saturday), although regardless we`ll see a notable cooldown, with temperatures falling back close to seasonal normals by Sunday. Ensemble guidance generally favors a return to drier conditions to start the week along with milder temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1042 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025 Models point to weak normal diurnal wind patterns for DIA this afternoon and tonight. Weak northeasterlies later this afternoon, then a return to normal drainage winds by mid evening. There will be no ceiling issues. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRQ AVIATION.....66