National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
Thornton Weather Forecast Today's Forecast Story |
331 FXUS65 KBOU 070604 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1104 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slick roads will remain possible through early Saturday morning as temperatures drop well below freezing. - Warming trend returns Saturday, and continues through Monday/Tuesday. Dry weather favored for the foreseeable future, aside from slim (20%) chances for light mountain snow showers Tuesday-Wednesday, && .DISCUSSION /Through Friday/... Issued at 1101 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 Dry NW flow aloft will be over the area Sat thru Sun. Main concern for Sat will be high temps where decent snow cover exists. Naturally haven`t seen a snow cover map, but based on snow reports, have kept highs in the lower to mid 40`s where deeper snow cover resides. Meanwhile, where lower snow cover exists highs may reach the lower 50s. By Sun, a sfc lee trough will develop east of the mtns with downslope low level flow. This will allow for warmer temps Sun aftn as readings rise into the upper 50`s to mid 60`s across the plains. For Mon and Tue, the flow aloft will become more westerly with only some higher level moisture embedded in the flow. Downslope low level flow will remain in place on Mon which should allow for highs in the upper 60`s to mid 70`s over the plains. On Tue, the downslope component will weaken as a cold front moves across the plains by late aftn. As a result, highs may cool a few degrees but readings will still be above normal. By Tue night into Wed the flow aloft will become more NW. The cold will move across all of the plains Tue night and bring cooler temps for Wed as highs drop back into the 50`s over nern CO. The last few nights the ECMWF and GFS have had differing solution as to how much moisture will be embedded in the flow. Ensemble data from the ECMWF has shown better moisture while ensemble data from the GFS has been drier. As a result, the ECMWF would produce some light precip mainly over the higher terrain while the GFS basically has no precip. For now will leave what the blended solution has for pops and keep a chc of light precip over the higher terrain. Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, mainly dry WNW flow aloft will be over the area as a sfc lee trough redevelops east of the mtns. This will lead to increasing downslope low level flow with warmer temperatures. In addition, will likely see increasing winds over the higher terrain and near the foothills. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/... Issued at 1040 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 Skies were clearing in the wake of the most recent storm, and VFR will persist with mostly clear skies through this TAF period. Winds are starting to transition to normal drainage winds as skies clear, and southwest winds can be expected by 09Z at speeds less than 10 kts, holding through at least 18Z. Those winds should then turn more southerly and hold through most of the day Saturday as the recent snow cover will prevent a normal diurnal wind transition. Due to the snow cover, there`s a chance of a more southeasterly wind direction 21Z-24Z, but overall little if any impact to landing ops. Then, slightly enhanced south/southwest winds 10-15 kts can be expected after 02Z Sunday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...20