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617 FXUS65 KBOU 101739 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1039 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected across the forecast area all week. - A few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon over the plains. - An upper trough is expected to move across the forecast area late Friday and Saturday with a chance of precipitation for most areas. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 155 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 Models show the northerly flow aloft tonight to gradually weaken and become northwesterly by Monday afternoon as upper riding moves slowly eastward towards Colorado. The northwesterly flow aloft is expected to continue through Tuesday night at jet level speeds of 30 to 50 mph. By Wednesday, the upper ridge is over the CWA and the zonal flow aloft is progged to increase in speed. The QG fields point to very weak or no synoptic scale energy over the CWA tonight through Wednesday night. The QPF fields show no measurable precipitation through Wednesday night either. Will keep the dry weather going through Wednesday. For temperatures, thickness fields point to daily highs getting 10 to 15 degrees F above normal much of the week. There is an outside chance of a record high or two being set through Thursday. There will be elevated fire weather conditions; mainly Tuesday afternoon, across the plains due to the warmth, dryness and fairly breezy winds that are expected. For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, zonal flow aloft on Thursday increases and becomes southwesterly by Friday ahead of an approaching upper trough. The trough axis is over the western Colorado border 00Z Saturday, then it moves across the CWA through mid day Saturday. The GFS is stronger than the ECMWF with this feature. This system will bring a chance of precipitation to the CWA Friday into early Sunday, especially in the mountains. Strong north-northwesterly flow aloft moves in early Sunday but then decreases through the day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1035 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds should remain light out of the south to southeast through most of the day... and should continue through the overnight hours. There should be some increase in gusts at BJC after 06z. Some guidance tries to push some stronger west/southwesterlies into DEN/APA Tuesday morning, but I`m a little skeptical of the stronger gusts suggested by the HRRR. Either way, a gradual turn from southwest to northwest is expected during the first half of the day Tuesday, settling on a northerly component near or after 18z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...66 AVIATION...Hiris