071
FXUS65 KBOU 100032
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
632 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through at least Sunday.

- Mainly dry weather continues, with only isolated to
  scatteredshowers (15-30% coverage) and a couple weak storms
  over themountains through Sunday. Any precipitation would be
  light.

- Elevated fire weather conditions as southwest breezes
  increase,especially by Saturday.

- Pattern change next week, with cooler temperatures
  finallyarriving by Tuesday. Main precipitation chances hold off
  untilthe middle of next week, but even then much uncertainty.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough near the
Utah/Colorado border. This combined with developing cumulus clouds
over the mountains and limited moisture, means isolated high-
based showers are still on track for this afternoon and early
evening. On Saturday, the ridging that`s been over the region will
finally transition southeastward and be centered over the
Southern Plains. Southwest flow aloft will prevail behind the
ridge and ahead of an upper level trough over the Pacific
Northwest. Warm temperatures will continue Saturday. Due to the
increasing flow aloft, breezy southwest winds are expected for
Saturday. Like the past few days, isolated to scattered high-based
showers are expected over the mountains, with light precipitation
amounts at most.

The upper level trough dives south across the western states
Sunday and Monday while remnants from Hurricane Rachel lift north
across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin. Widespread rain is
expected across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest, even
reaching parts of western Colorado. However, models are in good
agreement that any precipitation associated with the upper level
trough and remnants of Hurricane Rachel will stay well west of the
forecast area. The mountains could see isolated to scattered
showers Sunday due to increased moisture and instability.
Temperatures will stay well above normal Sunday with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Come Monday, the temperature forecast
becomes highly uncertain over northeast Colorado. Surface low
pressure deepens over southeast Colorado and drags a backdoor cold
front into northeast Colorado. The timing of this front will
impact Monday`s temperature forecast. The NAM indicates an early
arrival for the cold front over the northeast plains with
temperatures struggling to reach 60F. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is
slower and shows temperatures reaching the mid 80s over the
northeast plains.

For Tuesday through Friday, precipitation timing and chances
remain uncertain due to model differences regarding the placement
and track of the ejecting upper level low. Latest trends suggest a
slower eastward progression of the trough. Thus, Tuesday is
looking drier. Temperatures will be cooler and closer to normal
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s over northeast Colorado.
Given the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, Tuesday night through Wednesday night
is on track to be the best time period for precipitation as the
upper level low begins to lift across the region.There is still
tremendous model uncertainty for Thursday and Friday. Models agree
cooler air will remain over the western states with temperatures
at or slightly below normal. As far as precipitation chances go,
low PoPs in the forecast seem on track given the large amount of
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/...
Issued at 542 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Expecting to see
wind speeds continue to slacken over the next hour, with an
easterly progression of the shear zone that has been in place west
of KDEN/KAPA in the next hour to bring winds around to the NW.
Winds are expected to settle into a SSW flow for the overnight
hours at KDEN/KAPA (by 3-5Z), but there could be a brief period of
light and variable winds behind the boundary or a gradual
counterclockwise turn before they settle in. KBJC is expected to
maintain more of a SW to westerly flow for the overnight hours.

For Saturday, winds should start to turn to the SW around 19/20Z
at KDEN, slightly sooner at KAPA. Forecast soundings show DCAPE
approaching 1,000 J/kg in the afternoon that would bring potential
for some passing virga showers (gusty winds with no precipitation)
beginning around 21Z. A PROB30 has been introduced at KDEN and
KBJC from 21Z-24Z to account for some gusty outflows from any
virga that could move across the TAF sites, with winds between
20-25 kts possible if they do move overhead.




&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BM
AVIATION...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion