841
FXUS65 KBOU 162205
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
305 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds (50 to 75 mph gusts) and critical fire weather
  conditions will continue into the early evening hours. Hazardous
  travel conditions expected with closed roads.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected again on Saturday over
  the eastern plains.

- More tranquil weather Sunday onward. Still dry through much of
  the week ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 227 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Strong winds up to 78 mph have created several impacts across our
forecast area today. One of the impacts has been blown over
trucks/vehicles. The strong cross winds have created hazardous
travel conditions and portions of I-25 near the Wyoming border
and I-70 east of Denver have been closed. Another impact has been
blowing dust that is reducing visibility. Some locations have had
visibility reduced to 5 miles across the plains. Finally, the
strong winds and very dry air has created critical fire weather
conditions. A Red Flag Warning continues until 6pm this evening.

These strong winds will weaken after sunset due to reduced mixing.
The High Wind Warning will expire but gusty winds will continue
overnight. Gusts up to 50 mph may still occur especially over the
northeast plains through the night.

The axis of a trough that is approaching Colorado will move
through our forecast area Saturday morning. There will be weak PVA
ahead of this trough, along with upslope flow, that will produce
some mountain snow showers throughout the night. Despite the very
dry air across lower elevations, the Palmer Divide could see some
light snow showers overnight tonight with minimal to no snow
accumulation.

As the trough moves past our forecast area on Saturday, very dry
subsident flow will move in. Dew points could decrease to as low
as -20 F across the far northeast plains. This will lead to
relative humidity dropping to between 12-18%. With gusty winds
continuing, Red Flag Warnings were issued and this is discussed in
more detail in the fire weather section below.

Winds will still gust up to 45 mph on the plains during the day
tomorrow. There will be clearing skies and chilly apparent
temperatures. Winds chills will be in the teens across the plains
throughout the day with wind chills in the 20s across the I-25
corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/...
Issued at 227 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Flow aloft is slated to weaken Sunday although will remain firmly
northwesterly, with a secondary jet max over the north-central US
plains sustaining breezy daytime conditions primarily for our
northeast plains, where gusts near 40 mph can be expected. Winds
aside, the subsident flow regime and rising heights will allow
temperatures to rise into the upper 40`s in the plains and low/mid
50`s for the urban corridor.

A cold front will descend into our area Sunday night, bringing
temporarily cooler temperatures for Monday and approximately a 20%
chance for a few light snow showers to most areas early morning. A
localized dusting to 1" wouldn`t be entirely surprising, but there
is limited moisture to work with and most should see little or no
accumulation.

By Tuesday we`ll be back to unseasonably warm temperatures and dry
conditions regionwide with weaker northwest flow prevailing aloft.
Winds look to pick up Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly in the high
country and foothills, as another developing trough over the
northern plains brushes Colorado. Depending on on the spatial
distribution of winds, we may see elevated fire weather conditions
Tuesday (warmest and driest day of the week).

During the latter half of the week, the synoptic pattern favors a
gradual transition towards increasingly zonal flow and some
opportunity for shortwaves and moisture incursions into the high
country. Ensembles remain extremely noisy with regard to timing of
any systems, with additional moderate variance in QPF signals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1043 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

North winds are expected to persist through Saturday and DEN. The
strongest winds are expected this afternoon 20-23Z with gusts to 40
knots, which could produce blowing dust restrict visibility.
Winds decrease towards sunset, but stay gusty with gusts up to 35
knots. Late tonight and into early Saturday morning, winds could
briefly turn to a southwest drainage direction. This will be
short-lived as gusty north winds are expected to develop Saturday
morning. KBJC and KAPA will be slightly sheltered in NNW flow, but
still expect occasional gusts to 28-38kts during the peak of the
winds 20Z-23Z.

VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period, but a small
(30%) chance ceilings drop low enough for IMC after 00Z tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Saturday will have similar temperatures and humidity as Friday.
This means humidity will fall to between 12-18% across the I-25
corridor and eastern plains. While winds won`t be nearly as strong
as Friday, there will still be wind gusts up to 45 mph mainly east
of Denver International Airport. The lowest relative humidity and
strongest winds will be to the east of a line from Fort Morgan to
Limon. Given the critical fuels, critical fire weather conditions
are expected so a Red Flag Warning was issued from Morgan to
Lincoln Counties and eastward to the Nebraska and Kansas borders.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ215-238>251.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ038-
042>051.

Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ244>251.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...BRQ
AVIATION...12
FIRE WEATHER...Danielson

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion