643
FXUS65 KBOU 130015
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
515 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through Friday, followed by more seasonable temperatures this
  weekend into next week.

- Chances for rain and snow showers across the high country this
  weekend, with a few showers possible over the eastern plains.

- A more active storm track next week?

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1212 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

A ridge axis remains just to the west of our forecast area today,
with weak flow aloft. Unsurprisingly, this has led to another day
of above normal temperatures and sunny skies across the region. We
should see highs reach the mid to upper 60s across the Denver
metro and eastern plains.

The upper ridge should begin to weaken tonight into Friday, as a
weak shortwave approaches. We`ll still see above normal
temperatures during the day, but increasing cloud cover should
hold temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

There`s still a surprising amount of uncertainty with this
weekend`s forecast, as a shortwave (or the remnants of a more
organized cutoff low) pushes southeastward from the Pacific
northwest into southern Colorado by Saturday night. This will
usher in some cooler air (high temperatures near normal), along
with a gradual increase in moisture. What remains to be seen is if
we manage to get any organized precipitation in our forecast area.
Across the mountains, sufficiently steep lapse rates would favor
widely scattered rain and snow showers initially on Saturday,
before transitioning to scattered light orographic snow showers
Saturday night as the flow aloft turns to the west. Across the
I-25 corridor, it looks like it will be challenging to saturate
the column below 700mb given a lack of appreciable synoptic scale
ascent/upslope flow. However, some moisture could stream into the
eastern plains where guidance generally advertises some light
(~0.1") rainfall totals through Sunday AM.

That system should quickly depart the region on Sunday, leading to
a cool but quiet end to the weekend. Temperatures should again
remain in the low 50s for most of the plains. A slight warming
trend is likely for the start of next week as broad ridging
develops over the central CONUS, leaving most of the state in a
drier southwesterly flow aloft.

The forecast pattern becomes much more complicated by mid-week
next week. A series of strong upper troughs is expected to push
from the northern Pacific into the intermountain west during this
period. The first of these waves looks to arrive sometime by
Tuesday or Wednesday. At this time, the best chance of
precipitation looks to be over our northern mountains, with
decreasing chances off to the south and east. I will emphasize
that this type of forecast pattern is volatile, meaning that
forecast confidence is rather low. Readers are encouraged not to
focus on single, deterministic model solutions for the next few
days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 514 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds have
started to turn more southerly and should continue turning clockwise
over the next several hours before settling into a south/southwest
drainage pattern by around 06Z. A few hours of light and variable
winds are expected tomorrow morning, with winds becoming
north/northeasterly around 19Z. Clear skies expected overnight into
the morning.

A Denver cyclone is expected to form in the afternoon,
although there`s some uncertainty as to where the center of that
circulation sets up. The most likely scenario is that the low center
sets up to the south/southeast of KDEN and then moves to the north
throughout the afternoon and evening. This would keep winds from the
northeast for much of the morning and early afternoon, with a turn
back to the north/northwest in the evening. Should the cyclone
remain further south of KDEN, winds would hold in a more northerly
pattern throughout the afternoon. Winds are expected to stay light
with this cyclone, around 10-12kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...AGS

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion