108
FXUS65 KBOU 191148
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
448 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow is coming to an end from north to south this morning. Low
  visibilities and slick roads could lead to poor travel
  conditions for the morning commute.

- Otherwise more tranquil weather Tuesday through Thursday.

- Glancing arctic outbreak on Friday, before moderating for the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 303 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Snow chances will gradually come to an end from north to south this
morning as the better frontogenesis moves to our south, the weak
upslope ends, and the upper jet moves to a more unfavorable position
(left entrance). Early this morning, you can see drier conditions
moving in and the snow ending in our northern counties on radar.
This line will travel south through our forecast area over the next
couple of hours, bringing an end to the snow for today. Snow should
be ending in the next hour or so for Boulder and around 5AM for
Denver. Areas under the heavier snow bands (like DIA) are
experiencing low visibilities this morning (80% chance) of staying in the teens over the northeast plains and
potential (30% chance) of single digits highs there. Intuition says
these odds would be even greater as the entire pattern is favorable
for unleashing a blast of air from north of the Arctic Circle.
Deterministic models show a 1050+ mb surface high dropping into the
Upper Midwest in the core of that arctic plunge.  We`ll be on the
western edge, which means it won`t be as intense as it could be and
it also won`t last more than a day or two. In fact, the earlier
arrival also means it looks like we`ll be moderating by Saturday
already, and then pushing above normal temperatures by Sunday if

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 234 PM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

Water vapor shows a trough over Montana currently that will move
southeastward tonight. This will provide forcing over our forecast
area that will create widespread light snow. The low level
easterly, upslope flow along with modest low level frontogenesis
will aid with forcing. While it is quite dry, models like the HRRR
usually have a dry bias through events like this. That seems to
be the case again tonight with the global models locked in on
roughly 0.05-0.15" of QPF forecast for the Denver metro and most
of the eastern plains while the HRRR has had some runs with almost
no snow. So the forecast of a trace to 2" was slightly increased
with 0.5-2.5" now expected for the majority of lower elevations.
This will lead to poor travel conditions for morning travel
although it does not reach Winter Weather Advisory criteria.

Highs will be below normal tomorrow as it is possible Denver
doesn`t reach 40 with the snow on the ground and clearing skies.

A brief ridge will move over Colorado on Tuesday ahead of another
trough. Much drier air will move into our forecast area with
relative humidity dropping to 8-15% across the plains and
foothills. The hope is that there will be enough snow Sunday night
into Monday morning to provide enough moisture on the fuels to
limit fire danger. If there isn`t enough moisture, Tuesday could
see some Red Flag Warnings given the very dry air and gusty winds
that could reach 35-40 mph across the foothills and northeast
plains.

The aforementioned trough will move through Colorado Tuesday night
with an associated cold front. Wednesday will have slightly below
normal temperatures with gusty winds. It is possible models will
pick up on some light snow showers Tuesday night across our
forecast area but they haven`t yet. The forcing from the Tuesday
night shortwave is similar to the Sunday night shortwave.

Global models and their ensembles have come into better agreement
that a brief cold wave will move into Colorado late on Friday. The
NBM seems slow to pick this up but lows in the single digits or
even below zero are possible across the plains. Light snow is
also a possibility with the highest chance for snow in the
southern foothills given the northeast low level flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 420 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Snow continues to move south over our forecast area this morning.
Snow will be coming to an end soon at KBJC. KDEN will see
improving conditions and lighter snow for another hour before the
snow showers move out. KAPA will see the worst conditions this
morning, with heavier snow and lower visibilities continuing for
another hour. After 14Z, all TAF sites are expected to be in the
clear for both snow and low clouds. CIGs will lift and scatter out
after the snow moves out, with mostly clear skies by 17Z. Winds
will primarily be from the SSW to SSE today with a few hours of
variable winds in the late morning to early afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20/AP
DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...AP

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion