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683 FXUS65 KBOU 021126 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 526 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few severe storms will be possible again this afternoon, with locally heavy rain in a few areas. - Thunderstorm chances will continue on Wednesday with lower threat for severe storms, however, locally heavy rain will be possible. - Trending warmer and drier for Thursday and Friday with only a slight chance of thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 257 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 Tstms continue early this morning over portions of the east central plains. This area appears to be associated with an upper level and has been anchored along some type of elevated boundary above the sfc. Activity may continue for a few more hours before ending by 11z. For the rest of the day, WSW flow aloft will remain over the area but will be somewhat weaker today. Mewnhile, at the sfc, the low level flow will be more southerly across the plains. SBCAPE by aftn will be in the 2000 j/kg range across nern CO. Main question at this point is, where will tstm development focus by early to mid aftn. There could be a DCVZ associated with a Denver cyclone by early aftn which may act as a focus for sct tstm development. In addition, may see a few storms develop closer to the Cheyenne Ridge as well. Although shear profile won`t be as favorable this aftn, decent SBCAPE should still allow for a few svr storms to occur. Meanwhile, over the higher terrain tstm activity will remain more widely sct. Highs this aftn will range from the upper 70`s to mid 80s over nern CO. By tonight, will continue to see a few tstms across the plains early this evening. However, not sure if they will linger past midnight like tonight. On Wed, the flow aloft will be weak westerly. At the sfc, winds will remain mainly southerly across the plains. However, there is some disagreement as to whether there will be a convergence zone by aftn from the Palmer Divide extending northeast across the plains. If this convergence zone does develop then that would be a focus for tstms development in the aftn. SBCAPE along the boundary will be around 2000 j/kg, however, overall shear will be weak. However, still can`t rule out an isold svr storm or two. In additon, with weak flow, storms will be slow moving and produce heavy rainfall in some areas. Meanwhile, over the higher terrain, tstm activity will remain more widely sct. As for highs, readings will rise into the mid to upper 80`s across the plains. For Thu into Fri, mainly westerly flow aloft will be over the area. SBCAPE both days will still be in the 1500-2000 j/kg range over portions of the plains. Thus still can`t rule out widely sct tstms both days in the aftn over the plains. Over the higher terrain, activity should be more isold. Highs over nern CO will continue to rise with readings in the upper 80`s to lower 90s both days. By the weekend, the flow aloft will gradually become more SW. This will lead to even warmer temps as highs reach the lower to mid 90`s across nern CO. As far as tstm chances, for now will keep pops mainly in the slight chc category. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday/... Issued at 517 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 Stratus has developed this morning but ceilings have been in the 4500-6000 ft so far based on observations. If there is lower ceilings can`t see them since it`s being obscured on satellite with the 4500-6000 ft layer. For now have decided to keep ceilings in the 3500-5000 ft range thru 16z. If SSE winds do develop as shown by latest data then these ceilings may begin to scour out by 16z. For this aftn, do expect sct tstms to develop by 20z and affect the airports thru 23z. If a stronger storm were to occur, brief winds gusts to 50 mph along with hail will be possible along with visibility reduction to 3 miles or less possibly in heavy rain. Winds this aftn will stay mainly SE. After 23z tstm threat should diminish with SE winds continuing. There could be a chc of showers and possibly a tstm between 01z and 04z with APA having the best chc. Winds overnight will become more southerly by 06z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...RPK