National Weather Service Forecast Discussion for Thornton and Denver, Colorado

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 032138
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
338 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

A single severe thunderstorm has developed over Douglas County and
appears to be weakening as it moves northeastward. Additional weak
shower activity has also been brewing over the southern Front
Range foothills. Outflow boundaries from these showers may kick
off additional thunderstorm activity over the I-25 corridor to the
north of Denver in the next few hours. HRRR model runs show the
evening convection consolidating as a line over Weld, Morgan,
Adams and Lincoln Counties after 6 PM this evening. Southeasterly
winds on the plains with dew points in the lower to mid 50s will
provide decent inflow to keep showers developing as the progress
eastward. The forecast will have scattered thunderstorms on the
plains through the late evening. A few cells may produce moderate
to large hail at times.

Another day with morning sun and afternoon thunderstorms seems to
be in store for Saturday. The weak southwesterly flow aloft will
continue while moist air and weak low pressure also remains in
place. CAPE values from the NAM show lower values tomorrow,
compared with this afternoon. So the threat of severe storms
should be lower, but scattered afternoon coverage will still be
possible. Temperatures should also reach the lower 90s on the
plains again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

The ridge of high pressure aloft will remain over Colorado and
persist through next week. Afternoon and evening showers and
storms are expected to continue over the weekend, but warmer
temperatures and drier air aloft will decrease the chances of
convection through next week. There will be considerably less
precipitation across the area after Monday. Models show 700 hPa
temperatures frequently warmer than 60 F over the plains with
generally decreasing humidity. Surface high temperatures
will be in the 90s most of the week on the plains. There will
still be some summer storms, but much decreased in coverage and
intensity. Upper level flow will turn slightly more westerly over
the weekend, as an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest
advances eastward. Flow will turn back to southwesterly from
Monday night the rest of the week.

Fire concerns on the plains will be increasing through next week
due to the warming temperatures and decreasing precipitation,
though strong winds are not expected. Heat may also become a
concern as temperatures continue to rise, especially for the heat
islands of the urban corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

Afternoon thunderstorms are moving out of Douglas County and
appear to be far enough east that impact on Denver area airports
will be minimal. Additional showers are still possible for the
next few hours as storms are still brewing over the foothills of
Park, Jefferson, Clear Creek and Pitkin Counties. Outflow
boundaries from the Douglas County are presently moving over KAPA
and should move over KDEN between 4 PM and 5 PM. Gusts of 35 to 40
knots will be possible. After the next couple hours of shower
activity, the rest of tonight should be benign with winds
returning to southerlies. Another round of thunderstorms are
expected for Saturday afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...DiRenzo
AVIATION...Dankers

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