National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

795
FXUS65 KBOU 141559
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
959 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Dry and mild forecast is on track. No significant changes needed
with the above normal temperatures and very low humidity. Fire
danger will be higher today with the increase in winds...see Fire
Weather section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 131 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Another mild day in store for north central and northeast
Colorado. A zonal flow aloft will be over northern Colorado today
with a short wave trough passing to the north late this afternoon.
High temperatures will be similar to yesterday with the expected
max temps slightly above normal. The associated cold front is
expected to push into the northeast plains late this evening.
Prior to that, west winds this afternoon will shift to the
northwest this evening then north/northeast with the passage of
the front. The fire danger will be elevated in the high mountain
valleys and along the Cheyenne Ridge where the best combination of
low relative humidity, less than 15 percent and wind gusts, from
20 to 25 mph will likely be. At this time, do not expect the
stronger wind gusts to be widespread enough to warrant a Red Flag
Warning so no highlights at this time. Some potential for some low
clouds to filter into the urban corridor following the passage of
the front after 06z.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 131 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Northwest flow aloft and Monday night`s cold front will bring
cooler temperatures for Tuesday. The cooler airmass will be
shallow with the lower elevations around 15 degrees cooler than
today. Meanwhile the higher elevations will only see a few degree
cool down. Can`t rule out few low clouds Tuesday morning. If they
occur they should quickly burn off.

An upper level ridge builds over the Central Rockies Wednesday.
Temperatures will rebound into the 70s across northeast Colorado.
This ridge shifts off to the east Thursday leaving southwest flow
behind it. A lee side surface trough forms over eastern Colorado
Thursday. Slightly warmer air moving into the area and downslope
flow should produce warmer temperatures on Thursday with upper 70s
to lower 80s across northeast Colorado.

Flow aloft turns westerly Friday as a short wave trough tracks
through the Central Rockies. Could be enough moisture embedded in
the flow aloft to produce showers over the mountains. Downslope
flow is expected to keep the plains dry. Will have low Pops in the
forecast for this system. Temperatures cool to near normal with
this system. Westerly flow aloft will remain over Colorado for
Saturday.

For Saturday night and Sunday, an upper level trough will dig
southeast and intensify somewhere over the western U.S. Still a
large spread among the models on where a closed low will form.
Will have cooler temperatures and chance for rain and snow in the
forecast for Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 959 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will be tricky this afternoon
with perhaps a channel or two of gusty west/northwesterly winds
up to 20-25 knots. KBJC and KDEN would be most prone to the
stronger winds 18Z-00Z, then winds relax. A weak cold front moves
through tonight, with a chance of a stratus deck and ILS
conditions after 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 959 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Fire danger is higher today due to an increase in westerly winds
and very low humidity. Current dewpoints are down into the single
digits and teens, so minimum humidities will drop into the 7-13
percent range in lower elevations and high mountain valleys this
afternoon. The worst combination of stronger winds and lower
humidity will be in North Park today, but there was some snow on
the ground up until yesterday. There will also be a corridor of
gusty winds from the northern Front Range Foothills eastward
across the northern tier of counties this afternoon. Middle Park
and South Park would be most prone since they received less snow
last week, but in those locations winds appear to be marginal.
Bottom line is fire danger is elevated across a good chunk of the
forecast area today, but not quite enough for Red Flag Warnings.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion