876
FXUS65 KBOU 141816
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1216 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and cloudy today.

- The best chances for showers/thunderstorms will be today,
  mainly along and south of I-70.

- Temperatures heat back up next week.

- Increasing fire weather concerns on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Current nighttime microphysics shows low stratus are socked in
along the Front Range and the majority of the plains late tonight.
This will continue to be the story for much of the day today,
which will result in much cooler temperatures across the forecast
area. The warmest temperatures are expected in Middle Park today
where the forecast calls for highs to climb into the mid 70s.
Everywhere else is expected to be in the 60s, which will be about
15 to 20 degrees below the norm for June.

Zonal flow aloft will begin to transition to the northwest through
the day today as upper-level ridging pushes eastward across the
western CONUS. A shortwave will cross the Rockies to the north
and with a little instability expected over the central mountains,
we could see showers and a few weak storms develop this
afternoon. With stable conditions expected over the plains, these
likely won`t hold together for long as they move off the higher
terrain, but we could see some light precipitation along the
foothills and adjacent plains. The best chances still remain south
of I-70. With wildfires still burning to the north in Wyoming and
Nebraska, can`t rule out the smell of smoke or some hazy
conditions for the northern urban corridor through the morning.

Monday will be a transition day as subsidence takes hold and 700mb
temperatures start to warm up. Dry conditions are expected and
afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s and low 80s across the
plains before things heat back up to the 80s and 90s for Tuesday
and Wednesday. Low-level moisture should remain elevated enough
to keep critical fire weather conditions at bay Monday. Tuesday
and Wednesday will be hot, dry, and winds will increase with
tightening pressure gradients. The GEFS HDWI continues to show
that Wednesday will push us above the climatological 95th
percentile, meaning this will likely be a critical fire weather
day for much of the forecast area. A cold front is still on track
to pass across the forecast area sometime Wednesday night that
will cool things down for Thursday. The aforementioned ridge will
continue to dominate the weather across the western CONUS through
the week, with the axis passing over the Rockies Friday and
Saturday. This will warm things back up into the 90s into the
weekend, with chances for precipitation starting to return to the
forecast area by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Winds will be very tricky this afternoon given the development of
a cyclone situated over the Denver metro area, just west of KDEN.
Winds are currently blowing from the north at KBJC, and from the
south at KAPA, with a few sporadic gusts up to 20KT. KDEN is light
and variable at the moment, with the most likely scenario being a
counterclockwise shift to the NE-NNE this afternoon as the
cyclone tracks east.

Low clouds have mostly lifted across the region, although KDEN and
KBJC are still experiencing ceilings of around 4,000ft AGL. We
expect any lingering low stratus to scatter out by 20Z this
afternoon. Like yesterday, there is a small (20%) chance for a light
shower in the vicinity of the airports, although the better chance
will be at KAPA, between 23Z and 05Z this evening. Ceilings may
lower again tonight (3,000-4,000ft AGL), leading to brief periods of
MVFR. However, low clouds will most likely be out of the area by
sunrise. Winds on Monday will start out variable before becoming NE
in the afternoon, but speeds will remain light (

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion