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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
National Weather Service Forecast 48 Hour Graphical Forecast Today's Weather Story |
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000 FXUS65 KBOU 180956 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 356 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 354 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Dry conditions today as an upper level ridge stays strong over our area. NAMNEST forecast soundings continue to display near zero instability for most of the region meaning quiet weather is expected; Some CAMs indicate there is potential for an isolated high based shower mainly for Park County this afternoon. Perhaps the most exciting forecast question today would be will DIA reach 90 degrees (#52) this afternoon. Without much cloud cover and dry air above, this outcome seems likely thus this update included an increase in afternoon highs across the urban corridor and plains. Additionally, a surface low arrives in the far Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border which will enhance surface winds. Northeasterly winds will produce 20-25 mph gusts throughout the afternoon mainly for the eastern plains. Tonight, partly cloudy skies will build into the mountains and valleys. Overnight lows will remain near normal for all areas. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 354 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 NW flow aloft will be over the area on Fri as a cool front moves across nern CO. Best moisture and instability will be mainly along and south of I-70 from the higher terrain across the plains. Thus will place the highest pops in this general area with lower chances further north. Highs will be in the 80s across the plains. For the weekend, a rather diffuse pattern will be in place as there will be a weak upper level system over the srn Rockies while a weak upper level high will be centered over Wyoming. Appears best moisture, in this pattern, will stay mainly across srn Colorado with limited moisture further north across nrn Colorado. Thus best chc of convection will probably be over the higher terrain, on Sat, with more widespread activity focused south of I-70. By Sun, latest data shows lower precipitable water values, so tstm coverage over the higher terrain may become less even south of I-70. Across the plains, tstm chances look rather low both days. Highs over nern CO will be in the lower to mid 80s on Sat with mid to upper 80s by Sun. Looking ahead to early next week, an upper level high will extended from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Not sure how much moisture there will be either day but will keep in a chc of tstms mainly over the higher terrain. Highs both days will be near seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 354 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Southerly winds at KDEN and KAPA will remain near 07-10kts this morning. KBJC will trend with light northwesterly winds through this morning. This afternoon, a surface low east of our region will shift winds to the northeast increasing to 10-12kts through 02Z. By late Thursday evening, typical drainage winds will occur arriving to a southerly flow by midnight. Cloud decks remain SCT throughout the entire TAF period near 20k ft and VFR conditions are expected through Friday morning at all sites. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 354 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 No flash flood expected through tonight. There will be some risk of flash flooding Friday and Saturday in the burn areas with locally heavy rainfall in a few areas. The threat of flash flooding may decrease from Sunday into Monday as drier air moves into the area. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AD LONG TERM...RPK AVIATION...AD HYDROLOGY...AD/RPK NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion
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