554
FXUS65 KBOU 212350
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
450 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler today, but elevated fire weather conditions
  again across portions of the Front Range and urban corridor.

- Arctic air moves into the area for Friday and Saturday with
  below zero wind chills for the plains Friday through Saturday
  night.

- Areas of light snow Friday - Friday night, and lingering into
  Saturday morning.

- Slight warming for Sunday, but temperatures stay below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 225 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Relatively quiescent conditions continue this afternoon under a
broad area of dry, northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures have
generally made it into the mid to upper 40s across the plains
(with DEN at 48F so far) with slightly cooler temperatures closer
to our northern CWA border.

Surface obs indicate another cold front is creeping into our
forecast area this afternoon, and this should bring some cooler
temperatures into the region for tonight and tomorrow. Highs on
Thursday should remain in the 30s as cold air continues to slowly
push into the region during the day. There should be a gradual
increase in cloud cover through the day, but otherwise the weather
should remain quiet.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 225 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Longwave trough over eastern North America is still on track to
bring arctic air to the central and eastern parts of the country,
including eastern Colorado. A strong surface high sinks south into
the Northern Plains Friday. We won`t see a sharp cold front, but
persistent northeast to east low level flow will advect the arctic
air into the region. Most of the model show highs of 15 to 25F
Friday and 5 to 15F for Saturday across northeast Colorado, but
the GFS/GEFS are about 10F warmer. If memory serves me right, the
GFS/GEFS were warm outliers for arctic events last winter and the
colder solutions (most other models) were more accurate. Feel this
is the same case with this upcoming arctic blast, so lowered
temperatures for Friday through Sunday. Saturday is on track to be
the coldest day with highs 5 to 15F degrees over northeast
Colorado. Saturday night is expected to be the coldest night. How
cold is still unclear, it will depend on how much clearing we see
overnight. Where it clears, lows for Saturday night have the
potential to reach -10F to -20F. Cold Weather Advisories may be
needed over eastern Colorado Friday night through Sunday morning
if models continue to push wind chills below -15F.

As far as snow goes, we`ll likely see light snow/flurries Friday
over eastern Colorado associated with the easterly upslope low
level flow. For late Friday, Friday night, and into Saturday,
there are a few features out there that could bring us snow.
First, moisture is expected to increase from the southwest. For
lift, we`ll see an upper level trough drop southward across the
region and the right entrance region of the jet will be over the
region. Placement of the best lift is still somewhat uncertain,
but the latest model cycle favors central and southern Colorado
for the best lift and snowfall. For areas north and northeast of
Denver, up to 2 inches of snow looks on track with slightly more
possible over the mountains and over/south of Denver. Drier air
moves in from north Saturday/Saturday night with dry conditions
expected over the area by midnight Saturday night.

Flow aloft turns west-northwest and a lee side surface trough
forms over eastern Colorado Monday. This will bring milder Pacific
air to the region. High temperatures are expected to climb above
freezing with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. West-northwest
flow aloft with possibly some ridging is expected over the Central
Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday. Near normal temperatures (highs in
the mid to upper 40s) and dry conditions are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/...
Issued at 433 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period. Current easterly
winds are in place at KDEN and KBJC with light SSE in place at
KAPA. There are uncertainties with wind direction at KDEN for the
next two hours as northeasterly winds to the northeast of the
airport will be battling with the southeasterly winds to the
southeast. Have slightly higher confidence in the southeasterly
winds winning out for a brief period (between 1-2Z) before
transitioning back to the east by 2-3Z. There is still a chance
that we stay easterly, or even turn more to the NE in that same
time frame. After 5Z, winds are expected to remain generally light
and variable before becoming more westerly after 8/9Z. Winds are
expected to make a transition to the NE by 17/18Z on Thursday and
east by late afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion