545
FXUS65 KBOU 021757
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1057 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally breezy and slightly cooler today through Wednesday.

- Quick-hitting light snow showers likely (50-70% chance) for the
  mountains, Palmer Divide Tuesday evening/night. Lower chances
  (20-50%) elsewhere. Any accumulations will be light.

- Warm and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 206 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Upper level ridge sliding east across the region brought mostly
sunny skies, light winds, and mild temperatures today with highs
in the upper 50s to mid 60s across northeast Colorado. Water vapor
satellite imagery showing a weak shortwave trough moving east
across the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave travels east-
southeast across the Northern Rockies tonight and Monday. We`ll
see an increase in high clouds tonight. Because of the high clouds
and mild airmass, not surprising we`ll see above normal overnight
lows. For Monday, high clouds persist through the morning. A weak
cold (more like cool) front associated with the shortwave trough
pushes southward through the area Monday morning. Northeast winds
pick up with gusts to 25 mph. High temperatures will be 5 to 10F
degrees cooler tomorrow with highs in the 50s across northeast
Colorado.

Northwest flow aloft continues for Tuesday. Temperatures cool a
little more under this pattern with highs in the upper 40s to mid
50s for northeast Colorado. For Tuesday night, a shortwave and a
jet pushes south across Colorado. The left exit region of the jet
will produce lift Tuesday night, but moisture will be limited as
this system travels southeastward across the North American
Rockies. Ensembles are about 50/50 if the Denver area sees
snowfall or not. The half that shows snow, all keep snowfall
amounts light. The best chance for snow with this system will be
over the mountains and Palmer Divide where orographic lift will
also add to the lift. Light snow or a few flurries could linger
into Wednesday, but with subsidence moving in, skies are expected
to quickly clear Wednesday. Temperatures at 700mb start off -7 to
-11C Wednesday, but warm through the day. Highs for Wednesday will
be slightly cooler again with mid 40s to lower 50s expected.

For Thursday through next weekend, a strong blocking upper level
high that`s been to our west shifts eastward over the Central
Rockies for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures warm back up with
highs reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s for northeast Colorado.
Not much change for Saturday and Sunday as well. Large ridging
continues across the western half of the country. Models tend to
show a weak shortwave trough under cutting or passing through the
ridge. If this were to occur, we may see an increase in high
clouds, but still no precipitation. The 12Z ECMWF ensembles and
GEFS all show Thursday through Sunday staying dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1056 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Winds are turning more northeasterly and increasing to 12G15-20kts
as of 18Z and should stay that way or slight weakening through
about 00Z. Then expect a gradual turn to more E-SE-SSW 00Z-06Z,
although a 30% chance they could just go light and VRB 01Z-04Z
before resuming the normal SSW drainage. Those SSW winds around
8-12 kts would then stick around through about 16Z Tuesday. By
18Z-20Z Tuesday, a stronger gradient and modest mixing would
suggest a transition to NNW winds 15G25kts. Timing of course,
would be in question regarding how much cloudiness would affect
mixing, and also a slight (20% chance) of an anticyclone keeping
winds lighter and VRB through Tuesday afternoon.

VFR will persist, with only SCT-BKN mid level clouds through this
TAF period. Slight lowering expected Tuesday afternoon but main
threat for IMC would hold off until 00Z Wednesday or later along
with a chance of light snow Tuesday night.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...20

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion