574
FXUS65 KBOU 180014
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
614 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and mild for the season through the middle of next
  week.


- Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing
  chance of showers and mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Not a cloud in the sky today across our area with soundings and
current observations showing 40-50 degree dewpoint depressions and a
dry vertical profile. Winds will remain light, with the exception of
the easternmost Colorado plains, where southerly winds at 10-15 mph
with sporadic gusts up to 25 mph will be possible. As such, elevated
to locally critical fire weather conditions may occur over portions
of Lincoln and Washington counties this afternoon although these
conditions should be short-lived. High temperatures this afternoon
are expected to be in the mid 70s for the low elevations, while the
mountains experience a wider range of temperatures in the 50s and
60s. Cloud cover from a decaying disturbance will drift over the
region tomorrow leading to temperatures a few degrees cooler than
today, though still in the low 70s for the plains and Denver
metro.

A return to southwest flow aloft and a weak shortwave will bring a
slight chance (15-25% PoPs) for some rain and snow showers over the
high terrain Monday, although no snow accumulation is expected and
rainfall amounts will reach a trace at most.

An upper level trough will start to deepen off the Pacific
Northwest coast late Monday night. This upper level trough will
slide south and become a strong cutoff low as it approaches the
California coast and begins to move east on Wednesday. Southwest
flow aloft will intensify across the Four Corners region ahead of
this cutoff low on Wednesday afternoon, bringing increasing
moisture and precipitation chances for the high country late
Wednesday into Thursday.

Upper level flow will turn more southerly on Thursday, and
this is when the bulk of the Pacific moisture plume will arrive.
However, as it stand now, our area will likely be under a
downsloping regime with south-southwesterly flow favoring orographic
lift over southwestern Colorado and the San Juan Mountains
primarily. This will be a system to watch as the week progresses
given that slight changes in the track of this cutoff low could
bring the potential for heavy rain closer to our area. Regarding
snow chances with this system, the airmass appears to be too warm to
support snow levels lower than 10,000-11,000ft until the next cold
front arrives on Saturday, likely after the moisture has moved
off to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 535 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds have
generally been light and variable through the late afternoon. TDEN
velocity currently shows south-southeasterly winds are approaching
from the south, with the expected time of arrival between 0130Z to
2Z at KAPA, closer to 2Z at KDEN. Drainage winds are expected to
settle in at KDEN/KAPA around 3Z for the overnight hours, with
KBJC staying more westerly. Guidance has continued to show
potential for a brief period of gusty downslope winds reaching
KBJC between 3Z-6Z, so a TEMPO has been added for this time frame,
with westerly gusts between 15-18 kts possible at times.

For Sunday, winds should start to decrease around 15-16Z and
become light and variable for a few hours at all TAF sites. Most
hi-res guidance agree in a period of NE to ENE winds between 18Z
to 20Z, but there is around a 20% chance we see slightly more ESE
winds before easterly winds are expected to settle in for the
remainder of the TAF period. No ceiling issues or precipitation is
expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AA
AVIATION...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion