132
FXUS65 KBOU 082340
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
540 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through Sunday.

- Mainly dry weather continues, with only isolated to scattered
showers (15-30% coverage) and a couple week storms for the mountains
and higher terrain. Any precipitation would be light.

- Elevated fire weather conditions as southwest breezes increase,
especially by Saturday.

- Pattern change early next week, with cooler temperatures by
  Tuesday (possibly as early as Monday). Best precipitation
  chances hold off until Wednesday-Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The upper level ridge holds over colorado today continuing our
abnormaly warm pattern likely through Sunday. Showers are currently
developing in the higher terrain. Temperatures 10-20 degrees warmer
than average are expected across the lower elevations this weekend.
The ridge shifts east Friday to make way for the trough heading in
from the Pacific Northwest providing us with southwest flow aloft,
but high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s are still expected for
the plains. Denver will once again near the record high Friday of 87
set back in 1910. Saturday will "cool off" slightly but well above
average temperatures are still expected. Winds will increase on
Friday and Saturday supporting critical fire weather conditions for
Washington, Elbert, and Lincoln counties.

Sunday the weather pattern will finally change, but the overall
impacts for our area will be limited. Temperatures will be in the
upper 70s and low 80s due to slight cooling aloft and precipitation
chances will increase for our western counties as the moisture from
Rachel and the digging trough clash. There remains some uncertainty
how far east the precipitation will reach, but overall model
consensus favors the greatest chances in Utah and Western Colorado.
Tuesday night into Wednesday night the trough and low starts to push
into our area, but deterministic and ensemble guidance still doesn`t
show significant indications of rainfall for the area. Likely due to
the storms/moisture having to make it over the mountains before they
can precipitate in the plains.Rainfall amounts will likely depend on
how deep the trough will reach and the exact track. Rain and
mountain snow showers will be possible.

There is a lot going on from Wednesday through Friday. The upper
level trough that was over southern California finally makes its way
across the Central Rockies, in a weakened state. Depending on its
track, rain and mountain snow showers will be possible on Wednesday.
On the heels of this system, an upper level low dives south-
southwest from western Canada possibly into the Central Rockies.
Many questions remain regarding this system yet, but even colder air
is expected if it dives far enough south. Roughly 20 to 40 percent
of the ensemble members show snow for the lower elevations sometime
Wednesday through Friday. Even if precipitation missed the area,
high temperatures are expected to be near or below normal (50s-60s)
across northeast Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 533 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

There are a few high based showers across the area with brief
microbursts. The chc of these affecting the airports is less
than 10% with APA maybe having a slightly better chc.  For now
have just included a prob30 at APA thru 02z with no mention at
DIA and BJC.

Winds have become N/NNW. A couple of boundaries are coming in
from the NW and SE. Eventually the SE boundry may allow for a
shift to south winds at APA and DIA between 01z and 02z. By O7Z
they will become more SSW.

On Fri, will have VFR conditions with winds staying from the SSW
thru the aftn.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schnell/Meier
AVIATION...RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion