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Live Hurricane Tracker - Atlantic Basin
Live Hurricane Tracker - Eastern Pacific Basin
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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231138
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores.
Surface and radar data indicate that a weak area of low pressure is
located just east of the upper Florida Keys and the southeastern
coast of the Florida peninsula. This system is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends primarily
northeast of the center over the northwestern Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic Ocean. The low is forecast to move near or over
the Florida peninsula through tonight, which should limit
development during that time. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development once the system moves northeastward back
over the Atlantic waters on Saturday. A tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend or early next week while the low moves
from near the coast of east-central Florida to offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and
southern and central Florida through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located about 1400 miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Additional slow development
of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves
generally westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Tropical
Tropical Depression Chantal
-
Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 11
-
Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019
1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 40.8W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 40.8W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 40.9W
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.8N 41.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.3N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.5N 44.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 40.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
-
Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019
000
WTNT44 KNHC 231504
TCDAT4
Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019
Chantal is currently producing only small bursts of convection over
the northern semicircle, and visible satellite imagery suggests
that the low-level circulation is becoming less well defined. The
initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on current satellite
intensity estimates, but it is possible this is a little generous.
A combination of dry air and large-scale subsidence is expected to
prevent the return of persistent deep convection, and if current
trends continue Chantal could degenerate to a remnant low later
today or tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by
72 h, which is unchanged from the previous forecast.
The initial motion is now 155/6. There is little change to
either the forecast philosophy or the forecast track from the
previous advisory. The cyclone is embedded in the subtropical
ridge, and the core of the ridge is forecast to shift from southwest
to northeast of Chantal during the next couple of days. This
evolution should cause Chantal or its remnants to make a clockwise
half loop before the system dissipates. Like its predecessor, the
new forecast track lies near the various consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 36.6N 40.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 35.8N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 35.3N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z 35.5N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
-
Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019
1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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Tropical Depression Chantal Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:37:10 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 15:24:23 GMT
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Atlantic Satellite Imagery
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Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231137
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A surface trough located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although this disturbance is not currently showing any signs of
development, environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for some development in the central Pacific basin well to
the east of the Hawaiian Islands in a few days as the system moves
slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven
Tropical Storm Tropical
-
Summary for Tropical Storm Ivo (EP5/EP102019)
...REPORTS FROM CLARION ISLAND INDICATE IVO STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...
As of 9:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 23
the center of Ivo was located near 18.9, -115.0
with movement NNW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 992 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Ivo
-
Tropical Storm Ivo Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 231602
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Special Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019
900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019
...REPORTS FROM CLARION ISLAND INDICATE IVO STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM PDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 115.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM PDT (1600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 115.0 West. Ivo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days
and Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday
night, and then degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
A Mexican automated station at Clarion Island recently reported
sustained winds of 62 mph (99 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph
(122 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Latto/Blake
]]>
-
Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 1600 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
000
WTPZ25 KNHC 231602
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM IVO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
1600 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 115.0W AT 23/1600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 110SE 120SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 115.0W AT 23/1600Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.8W
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 115.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER LATTO/BLAKE
-
Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 231605
TCDEP5
Tropical Storm Ivo Special Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019
900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019
An observation at 1430 UTC from Clarion Island, Mexico, indicated
sustained winds of 53 kt and a wind gust to 66 kt on that island.
Based on this data, a special advisory is being issued with the
initial intensity increased to 55 kt. There has been a slight upward
adjustment of the forecast intensity through 24 hours to account
for the initial wind speed. However, the remainder of the forecast
reasoning remains unchanged, and no changes were made to the track
for this advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1600Z 18.9N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto/Blake
-
Tropical Storm Ivo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 1600 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 231603
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM IVO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
1600 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
AT 1600Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA CLARION 50 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
20N 115W 34 85 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
20N 115W 50 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER LATTO/BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Ivo Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 16:04:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 16:04:33 GMT
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