Tropical and Hurricane Activity

• Atlantic Activity, Outlook & Satellite
• Pacific Activity, Outlook, & Satellite

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141150
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland,
Canada.

A large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
is moving slowly west-northwestward. Showers and thunderstorms are
showing some signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during
the next day or so while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to
northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds
should prevent any further development by midweek.  This system is
forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are
associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over
north-central Honduras. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward across Honduras, southern Belize, and northern
Guatemala, which should prevent tropical cyclone formation for the
next couple of days.  By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to
emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could
become a little more conducive for some organization to occur.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days,
which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.  While
thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, upper-level
winds are not particularly conducive for significant development of
this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward at
around 15 mph.  By Wednesday, as the wave approaches the Windward
Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for
any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Post-Tropical Cyclone Post-Tropical

• Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa (AT4/AL142019)
  

  ...MELISSA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
   As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 14
   the center of Melissa was located near 41.0, -51.4
   with movement E at 23 mph.
   The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
   with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa

• Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Public Advisory Number 13
  
• Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 13
  

  Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019  
  
  000
  WTNT24 KNHC 141437
  TCMAT4
  
  POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142019
  1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019
  
  THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
  
  POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  51.4W AT 14/1500Z
  POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
  PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  80 DEGREES AT  20 KT
  
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
  34 KT.......  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
  12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW  60NW.
  WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
  MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
  REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  51.4W AT 14/1500Z
  AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N  53.0W
  
  FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.4N  46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
  34 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
  
  FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.4N  39.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
  FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
  REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N  51.4W
  
  THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
  CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
  FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
  SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
  
  $$
  FORECASTER LATTO
  
  
  

• Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 13
  

  Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019  
  
  000
  WTNT44 KNHC 141438
  TCDAT4
  
  Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Discussion Number  13
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
  1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019
  
  Melissa has transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. Shallow
  convection has become displaced greater than 100 n mi from the
  center, and Melissa's circulation has become embedded within a
  frontal zone.  The inner-core now consists of a swirl of low clouds
  with a large amount of cool post-frontal stratocumulus wrapping into
  the northern and western portions of the circulation. A recent ship
  report just southwest of the center indicated gale-force winds
  are still occuring in association with Melissa, and 35 kt will be
  this advisory's initial intensity. The extratropical cyclone is
  expected to gradually weaken over the next day or so, and dissipate
  before it reaches the Azores.
  
  Melissa is now moving at 080/20 kt and is embedded within
  mid-latitude westerlies.  This general motion is expected to
  continue until the cyclone dissipates.
  
  This is the last advisory on Melissa from the National Hurricane
  Center.  Additional information on this system can be found in High
  Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
  header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.
  
  
  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
  INIT  14/1500Z 41.0N  51.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
   12H  15/0000Z 41.4N  46.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
   24H  15/1200Z 41.4N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
   36H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
  $$
  Forecaster Latto
  
  

• Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
  

  Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019                                              
  
  000
  FONT14 KNHC 141437
  PWSAT4
                                                                      
  POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13   
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142019               
  1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019                                            
                                                                      
  AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA WAS LOCATED    
  NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                     
                                                                      
  Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
     ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                      
  WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                      
  CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
     ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
     ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
     ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
  FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
      OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
          AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
     (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
          12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
  THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
  64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                      
                                                                      
    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                      
                 FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
    TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
  PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
               00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                      
  FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                      
  $$                                                                  
  FORECASTER LATTO                                                    
  

• Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Graphics
  
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 14:44:15 GMT
  
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 15:24:21 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141133
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Baja
California Sur, the Gulf of California, and western Mexico are
associated with an elongated area of low pressure.  Upper-level
winds have increased over the system, and the low has moved over
cooler waters.  Therefore, development is no longer anticipated.
However, heavy rainfall associated with this system is likely to
continue across portions of Baja California Sur, southern Sonora,
and northern Sinaloa through today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Gradual development is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just
offshore the coast of Mexico. By late this week, the proximity to
land could inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 14 Oct 2019 16:32:44 GMT

Tropical weather data courtesy of ...

• Weather Underground Tropical Weather
• National Hurricane Center