National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
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884 FXUS65 KBOU 131752 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1052 AM MST Tue Jan 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm again Today. - Slight (< 20%) chance of light rain/snow across northeast Colorado Tuesday evening and early Wednesday. - Elevated fire weather conditions possible (50% chance) across the plains Thursday and Friday. - A cold front will bring windy conditions and colder temperatures to the area on Friday. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 217 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026 Upper level high will be parked along the west of coast of North America for the next week. This stagnant weather pattern will result in north to northwest flow aloft over Colorado. The ridging to the west of Colorado will cutoff Pacific moisture from reaching Colorado keeping the region mostly dry for the next seven days. A shortwave trough and jet streak drop south across eastern Colorado Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Ahead of this, mild and dry conditions will continue for Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s across northeast Colorado. A few light rain/snow showers will be possible Tuesday night. Any precipitation is expected to be very light, a few hundredths at most. Breezy north winds will prevail for much of night across the plains. On Wednesday, we see a slight cool down with highs in the 50s across northeast Colorado. Temperatures rebound some for Thursday ahead of the next approaching shortwave trough and cold front. There`s still some uncertainty on the timing of the front. An earlier arrival than expected would produce cooler highs for Thursday. Strong northerly flow aloft and a tight pressure gradient is expected to bring windy conditions Thursday and Friday to at least the plains. We don`t expect to see much if any increase in moisture behind the front. Will need to watch these days for fire weather concerns. Windy conditions seem to be lock. It`s the amount of dry air (RH) in place that`s still unclear. Temperatures will be colder Friday with 30s over the eastern plains and 40s along the urban corridor. For the weekend and next Monday, north-northwest flow aloft continues with another possible shortwave trough. This looks to be a dry system for the region again with gusty north winds possible. Temperature forecast is somewhat uncertain. Arctic air sinks south across the Northern and Central Plains. The temperature range for this weekend from the ensemble members is large, most lean on the warmer side with highs in the 50s. However, with the arctic air nearby it is possible it seeps westward into eastern Colorado. If this happens, highs likely only reach the 30s with 20s possible over the far northeast corner of the state. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1052 AM MST Tue Jan 13 2026 Cloud cover has slowed warming and also slowed the wind shift/turn to the northwest. We still expect to see northwest winds 21Z to 22Z, possibly little gusty. Northerly winds are expected to continue into the evening, after 00Z. A weak front moves through after 03Z, bringing northeast winds, briefly gusty as the front goes through. Clouds lower after 06Z and linger into Wednesday morning. Ceilings are expected to fall to 3000-6000 feet with about a 30 percent chance at lower ceilings. By 18Z Wednesday, VFR conditions are expected with light and variable winds. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...12