784
FXUS65 KBOU 141429
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
829 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool, cloudy, and drizzly today.

- Rain and mountain snow become widespread this afternoon and
  tonight, before winding down on Thursday.

- Several inches (4-12") of snow expected for the mountains above
  9,000 to 10,000 feet with travel impacts later today thru
  Thursday morning. Lighter snow and at least a dusting into the
  mountain valleys and higher foothills.

- First freeze of the season likely over most of the plains late
  Thursday night into early Friday morning.

- Drier and warmer again for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

An easterly upslope flow component will keep low clouds and
widespread drizzle over eastern Colorado this morning, with the
heaviest precipitation (drizzle) in the upslope areas west of
I-25. Across eastern Grand and Jackson Counties, the easterly flow
is a downslope direction, and webcams show some blue skies. Radar
shows scattered showers over the mountains and mountain valleys,
which will continue this morning. Rainfall intensity will increase
this afternoon as the upper level low nears northeast Colorado
and an area of rain and mountain snow lifts northeastward across
the area. The going forecastfor today looks on track. We will be
watching how long the rain and snow lingers into Thursday, and we
may need to extend the Winter Weather Advisory later over the
northern parts of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

An upper level low will be near the Four Corners area by 12z Wed and
then track slowly northeast into nern CO by 12z Thu.  The overall
track of the low is a bit further north than what was shown last
night. However, there will be rather strong QG ascent associated
with the system along with favorable lapse rates and plenty of
moisture. Overall, will continue to see rounds of showers through
Wed aftn with snow levels lowering to 8000 ft in the aftn. Highs
on Wed will stay mainly in the 40`s across most of nern CO.

For Wed night, as the upper level low moves closer to the front
range, may see a decrease in precipitation along portions of the I-
25 Corridor and over the higher terrain along and south of I-70 by
mid evening, while precipitation continues over the plains and
nrn areas of the foothills and mtns. By 12z Thu, the upper level
low will be over nern CO and then move into swrn NE by early Thu
aftn. Meanwhile, another surge of cooler air will move across the
plains with northerly low level flow. This feature, combined with
moisture wrapping around the upper level low, may lead to a round
of rain along portions of the I-25 Corridor and plains thru the
morning hours. By aftn, the upper level low will gradually weaken
as it continues to move east. Thus should see a gradual decrease
in precipitation thru the aftn hours. As for highs, readings will
be in the 40`s to mid 50`s across the plains.

By Thu night into Fri an upper level high will build over the area.
This will lead to dry conditions with moderating temperatures.
Meanwhile, the first freeze of the season still looks likely over
most of the plains late Thu night into Fri morning.

For the weekend, a weak upper level disturbance will move across
late Sat into early Sun.  However, cross-sections continue to show
limited moisture with this feature.  Thus expect dry conditions to
continue as temps warm back to above seasonal normals.

Looking ahead to early next week, the low aloft will become
southwesterly as an upper level trough develops over the wrn US.  As
a result, this will lead to dry conditions with a continuation of
above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/...
Issued at 409 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Light drizzle, rain, and low ceilings are present across the TAF
sites this morning. Ceilings range from about 300ft to 700ft,
putting all terminals in LIFR or IFR this morning. The LIFR
conditions are expected to stick around through the mid morning,
before raising slightly to IFR CIGs for the afternoon. IFR
ceilings are expected to stick around through much of this TAF
package. We could see brief periods of MVFR CIGs late this
afternoon and evening at KAPA and KDEN, but IFR conditions will
likely return with passing showers. Rain showers are forecast to
hang around the TAF sites for the majority of the day. Rain will
generally be light. More widespread and potentially heavier
rainfall is expected this afternoon around 22Z to 02Z. Some light
rainfall or drizzle could linger behind this heavier activity.
IFR and ILS conditions are forecast for tonight as well.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BM
DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...AP

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion