707
FXUS65 KBOU 011847
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1247 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and drier conditions expected today through Friday.

- Only a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms today and
  tomorrow, with the greatest chances in the high country.

- Return of better moisture by the weekend with an increasing
  chance for showers and thunderstorms across the high country.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

GOES-19 satellite imagery shows some cumulus clouds mainly in our
far western high country. Radar shows light rain lingering in far
eastern parts of our area as the shortwave continues to depart our
area. SW flow aloft is still in place today, but PWATs are much
closer to average than the last couple of days. Isolated to perhaps
scattered high-based showers or storms are possible today across
most of the area. The far eastern plains locations would have the
highest risk for a severe storm producing gusty outflow winds (given
DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg) and small hail. Although the risk is
rather low, it is non-zero. MLCAPE values should reach around
1000 J/kg and bulk shear will reach around 30 kts, only for the
eastern plains. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s for
the plains.

There will be another chance for an isolated high-based shower or
storm tomorrow, but these are currently expected to stay mainly
confined to the high country. PoPs generally drop to below 10% for
Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures on the plains will warm into the
upper 80s to low 90s on Wednesday and Thursday.

By Friday and Saturday, high pressure shifts closer to us allowing
temperatures to creep up into the low to mid 90s for the plains.
Monsoonal moisture starts to make its return to the state on Friday
into the weekend aided by moisture associated with what will likely
be Hurricane Marie in the eastern Pacific. PWATs look to return to
well above average. As of now, rain chances appear to peak on
Sunday and Monday for our area with the greatest chances for our
high country. Questions remain about how widespread rainfall will
be east of the Continental Divide this weekend. Ensemble guidance
keeps temperatures for the plains in the upper 80s and low 90s
through at least Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds
are currently light and variable at KDEN, and should stay that
way for the next several hours, becoming predominantly
north/northeasterly by around 22Z. There`s still about a 10-20%
chance for light showers in the area in the late afternoon & early
evening, so we`ve opted to keep the Prob30 in the TAF through
02Z. Should any showers pass near the airport, some variable gusty
outflow winds are possible (20% chance). After any showers move
through the area, winds should turn towards the south and then to
drainage by around 05Z, and stay SSW overnight. Once the sun comes
up, winds will become light and variable and are expected to turn
southerly for the afternoon. There`s again about a 10-15% chance
for some showers tomorrow afternoon/evening, and current model
runs have convection initiating closer to 23/24Z and lasting later
than the current TAF period. Given the low confidence and late
onset of convection in the models, we`ve opted not to include a
Prob30 for now and will reevaluate at the 00Z TAF.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MV
AVIATION...AGS

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion