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808 FXUS65 KBOU 070603 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1203 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited, mainly alpine pops this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. - Higher chances for late day pops (30-70%) across much of the forecast area both Thursday and Friday. - Elevated to fire weather conditions over the plains, foothills and mountains parks Wednesday afternoon. - Unsettled weather pattern Saturday through Tuesday with decent chances of precipitation across the CWA. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Weak east and northeasterly winds continue in place over the plains at this hour. Models keep the weak upslope going all night with no drainage winds expected. There are a few light showers over the eastern border area currently, but not sure if any precipitation is hitting the ground? Current temperatures are in the mid 30s to lower 40s across all the plains. Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy for the CWA overnight with weak upper troughing to move across into Tuesday morning. Models have the flow aloft going northwesterly by this afternoon and continuing into Wednesday night. Then, 40-50 knot zonal jet level flow is in place through Friday morning. By later Friday, southwesterly flow aloft commences ahead of West Coast troughing. The QG Omega fields show very weak synoptic scale energy from Tuesday trough Friday for the CWA. Thickness grids point to a weak cold front getting into the northeast corner Wednesday afternoon then across the rest of the plains Wednesday overnight. There looks to be another cold front Thursday overnight. That one looks a tad stronger than Wednesday night`s. For moisture, there is a lot in the mid and upper levels overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. There looks to be enough for some 20-40% pops this afternoon mainly for the mountains, foothills and Palmer Ridge. Moisture is pretty limited on Wednesday now warranting only 10-30% pops by afternoon for the CWA. By Thursday, moisture increases and there is enough instability for 30-60% pops during the afternoon and evening for most of the forecast area. Friday has even better looking moisture with similar instability so will go with 40-70% late day pops. There will be elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon with the humidity levels dropping into the 13-20 percent range over the western and southern plains, and the high mountain parks. Wind speeds are not very strong however, so no highlights. For temperatures, highs will continue to be above seasonal normals all four days. Tuesday`s will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s over the plains. Wednesday and Thursday`s highs will be in the lower to mid 70s for the plains with Friday`s highs cooling down into the 60s. For the later days, Saturday through Tuesday, moist southwesterly flow aloft is progged on Saturday and Sunday with a weakening upper trough/closed low over the southwestern Unites States pushing east- northeastward into Colorado by Sunday afternoon. Another upper low and trough takes a similar track for Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to show pretty decent moisture in the southwesterly flow aloft for this time of year and they point to a fairly wet period with temperatures remaining above seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026 A weak/diffuse cyclone is evident from observations across the metro, with stronger easterly flow located east of the terminals. That pattern should persist through most of the overnight hours, with the cyclone eventually becoming a little better defined later tonight into Tuesday morning. Biggest question is if any stratus does manage to develop. Most CAMs do get low cloud cover to the north/east of DEN but are fairly adamant that the only cloud cover tomorrow morning will be a BKN deck above 12kft AGL. Did leave the TEMPO in for DEN but will likely make some adjustments overnight. Won`t see a significant deviation in the wind patterns on Tuesday with a generally easterly flow through most of the day. Main concern will be some isolated or widely scattered high based showers. DCAPE values do eventually exceed 1000 J/kg so a few gusts of 30kt seems plausible. I suspect overall coverage will be fairly low and so the TEMPO for gusts was reverted to a PROB30 for gusty -SHRA (although most of this will be virga). Drainage winds are expected to kick in a little earlier than normal Tuesday evening, perhaps as early as 01-02z. Guidance is fairly bullish on a period of stronger drainage flow in the evening with a slow weakening trend overnight. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...66 AVIATION...Hiris