708
FXUS65 KBOU 061822
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1222 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of morning fog northeast plains.

- Heating up today with isolated and gusty afternoon/early
  evening storms.

- Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the plains
  today, with widespread critical fire weather conditions expected
  in fuel-prone areas by Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Hottest temperatures this weekend, and then again Tuesday and
  potentially Wednesday. Highs generally in the mid 90s across the
  I-25 Corridor and plains, but near 100 possible over the
  northeast plains Tuesday.

- Brief respite in the heat Monday, and then increasing heat
  relief late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

We`ll remain under the influence of an upper level ridge today,
with yesterday`s slight cooling all but gone by this afternoon
under the influence of warm advection and strong daytime heating.
Despite the ridging, there is still sufficient low and mid level
moisture (even some morning fog over the northeast plains) to
keep isolated storms in the forecast this afternoon and early
evening. The main feature of these will be gusty outflow winds to
50 mph given DCAPE increasing to near 1400 J/kg, but a couple
storms could also bring briefly heavy rain and small hail
considering a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE and modest precipitable
water to work with. With southerly breezes increasing, fire danger
will as well - see more details in the Fire Weather Discussion
section. High temperatures will soar into the mid 90s across most
of the plains, but we think Denver`s official high will be just a
couple degrees shy of the record of 95F last set in 2018.

For Sunday, we`ll likely add on a degree or two with more of a
downslope component and a drier airmass spreading in from the
southwest. However, we`ll still likely be at least a couple
degrees shy of the record high of 98F in Denver. That said, it
will be hot and extra precaution should be taken if planning
outdoor activities this weekend. We`ll be just shy of Heat
Advisory criteria.

We still expect a brief break from the heat on Monday, with high
temperatures settling back into the 80s for the most part (the
deterministic forecast lies on the warmer side of most guidance).
In addition, the introduction of low level moisture will bring a
return chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Tuesday is still shaping up to be a blast furnace type day with
gusty southwest winds and hot temperatures. The increase in wind
and temperatures will be supported by strengthening southwest
flow aloft as Colorado lies in between a stronger trough entering
the western U.S. and a dominating ridge centered over the
Southern Plains. While guidance has "cooled" ever so slightly, we
still think a couple of our lowest elevations on the northeast
plains have a reasonable (50-60%) chance of reaching 100F. Denver
should reach the mid to upper 90s, so the record of 95F is in
jeopardy. Beyond that, there is still uncertainty to how fast the
next trough pushes across the northern U.S. and thus how quickly
we`ll start to cool. A few runs are now cooling things off a
little by Wednesday already, while there is more agreement that
stronger cooling arrives Thursday and especially Friday and
Saturday. The deterministic forecast again lies on the warmer side
of the solutions, so likely we`ll end up a little cooler than the
current forecast by the time we reach Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1221 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The TAFs are complicated today due to the continuation of weak of
convection over the mountains with possible initiation east
and/or south of Denver, but VFR conditions will prevail through
Sunday. Currently, convection over the Front Range mountains and
foothills is fairly weak. On shower generated a single flash of
lightning so far, and just 10-20% of lightning the rest of the
afternoon. This convection shouldn`t survive much as it moves
slowly east off the foothills. The exception could be BJC which is
why the PROB30 for SHRA is in place starting 19Z. The convection
and any gust front it produces is likely to shift winds to the
west at BJC this afternoon but once the gust front moves east of
BJC, convective potential becomes too low to mention in the TAF,
which will be after 22Z. DEN and APA have better chances of being
impacted by weak convection, and definitely by virga, but
probably not until after 21Z. The better chances of convection
impacting DEN and APA will be later this afternoon into the early
evening, with potential for gusts over 30 kts near any convection
that gets going. The winds will also be tricky at DEN and APA,
complicated by any convection. We don`t think any gust front from
the mountain/foothills convection will reach DEN, but convection
over the Palmer Divide, or convection that forms along a gust
front moving off the Palmer Divide could shift the winds from ESE
to S or SW at DEN and APA, again with gusts up to 30 kts. All this
detail is really hard to capture in the TAF, the best we could do
is the PROB30 for -SHRA and variable gusty winds to 35 kts. As
mentioned however, the most likely gust front wind direction would
be SW, S or SE this afternoon/evening. The other uncertain part
of the TAF are the SE winds after 02Z. Those winds in the model
output are forced by convection southeast of APA and DEN. The CAMs
all have some version of these winds and have for the last 6-7
runs, which is why we included them in the TAFs. However, if
convection doesn`t form, the SE winds won`t be as strong and we`ll
just see normal drainage winds out of the south 10-15 kts after
midnight.

Sunday looks like a very hot day but much lower chances of any
meaningful impacts from convection at any of the TAF sites. Winds
look to be WNW at 10 kts or so in the afternoon, and for now we do
not expect any gust fronts to form.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Locally critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
today as fuels over some of the plains would still be receptive
per the latest updates from land managers. Overall, conditions are
not terribly ripe for rapid fire spread however with marginal
winds and humidity values, but we`ll continue to highlight the
threat with the existing Red Flag Warning for portions of the
plains northeast of Denver.

Winds decrease over most of the plains for Sunday, so despite
even warmer temperatures and lower humidities, we do not
anticipate any highlights at this time. Meanwhile, mountain areas
will see increasing winds and dryness, but fuels there are labeled
as mostly not critical.

More widespread critical fire weather conditions will likely (>70%
chance) develop by Tuesday. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will combine
with record heat and 6-12% humidity over most of the forecast
area. We`ll continue to seek input from land managers regarding
fuel status updates given recent drying trends, as Tuesday has
potential to see extremely critical conditions given the above
mentioned parameters.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ242>245-248.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...Schlatter
FIRE WEATHER...20

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion