601
FXUS65 KBOU 211134
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
434 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weekend, well around average temperatures, before another
  big warm-up next week.

- Shot of moisture Wednesday in the high country with stronger
  winds across the urban corridor and plains.

- Fire weather concerns increase mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1149 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

You made it to the weekend, congrats! Your reward, a few days that
will feel like a late February winter day, minus the snow though,
outside of the high country. You could always go make dirt angels
and throw dirt balls at one another, just don`t add rocks to them,
that wouldn`t be prudent.

As has been the theme for our winter in eastern Colorado, winds and
more winds. Saturday won`t be windy per se but it`ll be breezy over
the far eastern plains in the wake of a weak cool front adding to
some downsloping off the Cheyenne Ridge. Sunday we will see some
return flow and clearing skies to allow temperatures to moderate a
tad back to a few degrees above normal, then the warmth dial gets
turned to 11...

Monday we`ll likely, 70% chance, see daytime highs over the urban
corridor and the plains reach into the low to mid-60s and then 65-
90% chance of 70 degrees on Tuesday. Yes, checking the calendar it
still shows that next week is February. 70 degrees is a mere 25
degrees above average and with no moisture falling from the sky,
relative humidities will bottom out in the low-teens/upper single
digits Monday and Tuesday. Winds look to take a break fortunately
with ridging moving close enough to the area. Then we turn to
Wednesday with the approach of the next short-wave trough of low
pressure.

Deeper mixing is expected on Wednesday while a dry front tries to
slide through the region...similar to Tuesday`s front from earlier
this week. Some guidance is hinting at moisture spilling onto the
Front Range with the shortwave trough, but thinking it`s overdone
and the coarser resolution bleeds too much to the east of the
divide. Regardless, Wednesday will be windy from the urban corridor
and eastward with with a decent low and upper level jet structure.
The shortwave does produce some snowfall in the high country during
the day with whatever moisture it has available, maybe a couple of
tenths of liquid. Thursday also looks warm and mostly dry with
breezy/windy conditions over the plains once again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/...
Issued at 429 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Some uncertainty regarding winds
through most of the forecast period. There`s a small channel of
westerly winds in the Denver metro, and a weak boundary just moved
through DEN out of the northeast. Neither of those features looks
as if it will persist for too long this morning. Guidance remains
inconsistent with wind direction through this afternoon, but the
current TAF reflects a fairly typical diurnal wind pattern into
the evening hours. Speeds are still expected to remain under 10kt
today.

There is gradually increasing confidence that a weak Denver
cyclone will develop this evening and persist through most of
Saturday night/Sunday AM, which may keep winds from returning to a
typical drainage flow overnight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heavener
AVIATION...Hiris

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion