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867 FXUS65 KBOU 100822 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 222 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers decreasing by Sunday morning. - Summerlike warmth and drier weather next week, with highs in the 80s for the lower elevations. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 219 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026 Relatively warm and mostly dry conditions will dominate the weather pattern Sunday through the end of the week as an upper level ridge builds over the southwestern U.S. Temperatures are expected to climb 10 to almost 20 degrees above normal throughout the week, with the possibility of portions of the plains reaching to the low 90s by midweek. Sunday will be the `coolest` day of the forecast period, with highs reaching up to the 60s to low 70s across the plains, and 50-60s for higher elevations. Low clouds and isolated light rain showers (10- 30% chance mainly for the eastern plains) in the morning will quickly dissipate, giving way to mostly clear skies by the afternoon. We will begin to feel the heat on Monday as the upper level ridge shifts east. Temperatures likely will reach up to the mid 80s, with relative humidity values dropping to the low teens across the forecast area. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, particularly for the northeast plains, as that area has received the least amount of precipitation from our last couple of events. However, winds will be the limiting factor, as most guidance keeps gusts below 25 mph throughout the day. A backdoor cold front overnight Monday will cool temperatures a bit for Tuesday, but still expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Guidance is in good agreement of heat peaking by midweek, as the axis of the mid-level thermal ridge is progged to be over Colorado by that time. A few of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble solutions still show the potential of KDEN reaching 90 dg on Wednesday, which would tie our record high temperature. Aside from the heat, daily elevated fire weather conditions are possible due to low relative humidities and above normal temperatures. However, wind will continue to be the limiting factor. Towards the end of the week, the weather pattern could turn more active as models resolve an upper level shortwave breaking down our ridge, with Pacific moisture streaming into the region. As of right now, it looks like the best chance for precipitation remains north of Colorado, but we could see some rain showers. Will continue to monitor. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/... Issued at 1139 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026 Winds are currently from the north/northeast at all terminals and will likely have a northerly component through the night, till 12Z-14Z. Winds will then become light and VRB (generally under 7 kts). Recent hi-res guidance indicate scattered showers lingering till 12Z-14Z, so have included a TEMPO for light rain for DEN and BJC, with VCSH for APA. Ceilings look to stick around 1000-1500 ft through the night, with the potential of 500-900 ft ceilings accompanied with any rain shower. Expect ceilings to gradually lift between 13Z-16Z with dry conditions through the day. For Sunday, wind direction is a little uncertain at this time due to winds staying generally under 7-8 kts through the day. It is possible they will be variable through the early afternoon, however they will likely have an easterly/northeasterly component before turning to drainage by the late evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MAI AVIATION...MAI