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346 FXUS65 KBOU 250527 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1127 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry weather Tuesday into Friday, with above normal temperatures all four days. - Cooler with a chance of precipitation Friday night into Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 757 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Still have some mid and high level moisture moving across in NW flow aloft. Still could see a slight chc of -shsn in the nrn mtns overnight. Across the plains, can`t rule out some virga over the far nern plains where there is an upper level jet in place. However, the chc of measurable precip is very low. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 241 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Gusty winds have been persistent across most of our forecast area today. Gusts have been around 35-40 mph across the Denver metro and northeast plains. Thankfully, high clouds have kept temperatures down a couple of degrees below forecast which is keeping relative humidity above 20% across the plains. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the afternoon. There will be some slight cold air advection at 700 mb tonight as the mid to upper level jet moves away from our area. A high pressure system will develop over eastern Colorado tomorrow which will result in much lighter winds. High temperatures will be about the same as today as there will be more sunshine but slightly cooler temperatures at 700mb. The lighter winds will also mean fire weather concerns will be lower tomorrow. Otherwise, it will be dry and a good day for getting outside. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/... Issued at 241 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Models show upper ridging to dominate the CWA`s weather Tuesday night through Thursday night. The flow aloft is very weak all five periods. The QG Omega fields show benign synoptic scale vertical velocity for the CWA into Thursday, with weak downward motion Thursday night. The low level pressure and winds fields show normal diurnal wind patterns with fairly weak speeds for the next few days. For moisture, cross sections show limited cloudiness for the CWA well into Friday. There may be a bit of high cloudiness once and while. There could also be enough moisture for a few afternoon convective showers in the mountains only. Nothing significant. For temperatures, Wednesday`s highs are about 15 degrees above seasonal normals over the plains, with mid 70s expected. It looks a bit warmer on Thursday with highs close to 80 over the plains. For the later days, Friday through Monday, southwesterly flow aloft is progged all of Friday and Friday night into Saturday now, with the weak upper trough moving through later in the day on into Sunday morning. That certainly slowed down from yesterday`s 12Z model runs. Also, the precipitation production does not look robust with the trough at all. However, a few ensemble members do show decent amounts of QPF. Spring so far has been pretty dry for the CWA. For temperatures, Friday`s highs continue well above seasonal normals, with Saturday and Suanday`s readings right around normals. Monday warms up again. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1126 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Light northwest winds still persist to start this period, but they`ll likely turn more southwesterly 09Z-11Z, and then light and variable 14Z-17Z. There is a couple hour period in that last transition (11Z-15Z) that a more south/southeast wind could prevail, but speeds would be light and less than 8 kts. A north/northeast wind is then expected to develop 17Z-19Z with daytime heating and mixing, before eventually returning to east-southeast-south through the 01Z-05Z period tonight. VFR will persist, although a SCT-BKN deck around 8,000 ft AGL is expected to develop for a few hours 00Z-07Z Wednesday. Cloud decks should be just above any concern for IMC. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...RPK SHORT TERM...Danielson LONG TERM....rjk AVIATION...Barjenbruch