775
FXUS65 KBOU 080030
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
530 PM MST Sat Nov 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected for at
  least the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 1132 AM MST Sat Nov 7 2026

GOES satellite imagery shows a few cirrus clouds moving south out of
Wyoming in the northerly flow aloft. Other than that, it will be
sunny, dry, and warm across the area with generally light winds.
Highs should reach the mid 60s across the plains and I-25 corridor
with around 50 degF in the mountain valleys and east slope
foothills. Tonight`s lows will be seasonally cool but warmer than
average for early November with mostly clear skies and light
winds. Looking at 30s across the plains and 20s in the mountain
valleys.

A positively tilted ridge builds over Colorado Sunday through
Tuesday. It will remain dry with above average temperatures.
Ensemble temperature spreads from any ensemble forecast system are
very small, resulting in high confidence in the expected
temperatures across our area. An example is REFS for Monday has at
most a 3-4 degree difference between the 10th/90th percentile
maximum temperature at just a few northeast plains locations. The
spread is less than that elsewhere. Needless to say temperatures
across the plains will be 65-70 deg each afternoon. The mountain
valleys/east slope foothills will likewise be warm with highs in
the low to mid 50s.

Late on Tuesday models have a weak shortwave trough moving across
the northern Rockies. GFS/GEFS are generally outliers with a colder
and further south trough than any other modeling system. However,
confidence overall is increasing that northwest flow aloft
associated with the trough to the northeast will advect cooler air
into our area especially by Wednesday morning, including a
surface cold front. Ensemble guidance has essentially zero
chance of precipitation with the trough/front passage across the
plains, and it looks really dry aloft too such that for now we
have keeping PoPs in the mountains below 10%, though that could
certainly change as we get closer to Tuesday. West flow and cooler
air associated with a trough is usually all it takes for flurries
across the highest peaks/ridges even if models look too dry.
Temps area-wide on Wednesday are likely to be cooler to some
extent given the front and proximity of the trough, for now 4-6
degrees cooler is in the forecast. It`s also likely to be breezy
across the northern tier counties of Colorado later Tuesday into
early Wednesday with northwest winds 15-20 mph gusting up to 30
mph. For now, it`s looks cool enough that RH should not drop to
red flag criteria. Thursday will also be breezy across the far
eastern plains, but it does not look like we`ll have any fire
weather issues.

Thursday and through the weekend the ridge rebuilds over Colorado
and does not budge at all, resulting in very little uncertainty in
temperatures and precipitation chances through the weekend. It looks
dry across our area with temperatures continuing to be 8-13 degrees
above normal each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 448 PM MST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period. Winds are
expected to remain light through the TAF period, with current
northeasterly winds gradually turning to the southeast through
the evening. Drainage winds should settle in late tonight and
transition to the southeast for the afternoon on Sunday.

Guidance continues to hint at potential for a weak Denver Cyclone
or convergence zone developing early Sunday evening ~23Z that
could bring a period of light and variable winds to KDEN/KAPA
before returning to the south for the overnight hours. At this
time, it`s still looking like the more likely scenario will be
with what is portrayed in the latest TAF, which is SSE winds
through the afternoon, transitioning to the S in the evening.
Either way, speeds are expected to remain light, generally under
10kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schlatter
AVIATION...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion