National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
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634 FXUS65 KBOU 061841 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1241 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A chance of light showers over the mountains late Monday, then a chance over the mountains and adjacent plains Tuesday. - A chance of light showers for much of the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions over the plains and foothills Wednesday afternoon. - Unsettled weather pattern Friday through Monday. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 1106 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Skies were mostly clear across the forecast area this evening. Satellite pictures are showing a bit of high cloudiness moving southeastward into the forecast at this time. Temperatures were in the 40s across the plains, with 30s on the foothills at this time. Drainage winds have developed in most areas. Models show flat upper ridging on Monday with weak zonal flow aloft. Only limited upper level moisture is expected on Monday, then a weak upper trough will move across Monday night into Tuesday with increasing mid and upper level moisture. There will be a cooler airmass lurking over the northeast corner on Monday afternoon, which is expected to push across most of the CWA Monday night with 10-20 percent chances of light showers over the high mountains and northeast corner. On Tuesday, pops for light showers will range from 40-60% over the high country and Palmer Ridge, with 20-50%s over the urban corridor. By Wednesday, strong northwesterly flow aloft behind the exiting trough will bring a brief shot of fairly strong low level winds to mountains, foothills and adjacent plains. There is not much of a mountain wave set-up noted on the cross sections, however. There is enough moisture progged for limited late day showers for most areas on Wednesday. There will be elevated to critical fire weather conditions due to low afternoon humidly levels Wednesday afternoon. However, wind speeds do not look strong enough at this time for any highlights. On Thursday, weaker zonal flow aloft will be in place. There looks to be enough moisture for light showers again, especially over the high county, with a chance out on the plains. Monday`s high temperatures will be in the upper 60s over the western plains, but upper 50s to lower 60s over the east. Forecast temperatures continue to look above seasonal normals over the plains Tuesday through Thursday, with mid to upper 60s Tuesday and Thursday and lower 70s on Wednesday. For the later days, Friday through Monday, southwesterly flow aloft is progged on Friday through Sunday with an upper trough moving eastward across the southwestern United States. By Monday, upper troughing is over the western third of the U.S. Overall, models continue to show a wetter period with temperatures remaining above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1234 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Winds for the rest of today will transition to more of an easterly direction and remain light until a secondary surge of a cool airmass pushes through from the northeast bringing a period of breeziness to the region around 00Z-04Z. We have introduced a TEMPO to account for the possibility of 25-30KT wind gusts at KDEN. Confidence in gusts greater than 20KT reaching KAPA and KBJC is low (20% chance) at this time. We expect ceilings to begin lowering to about 6000ft by midnight, with the possibility of BKN 1000ft stratus at KDEN and KAPA between 10Z and 14Z. Ceilings should lift by 17Z Tuesday and winds will become light SE across all airports through the afternoon. However, high- res model guidance suggests isolated high-based showers developing over the Denver metro area at 21-23Z. Any showers or virga that develops will have the potential for outflows and microbursts with 25-30KT gusts. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...66 AVIATION...AA