371
FXUS65 KBOU 180019
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
619 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant warm and dry period through Saturday. All-time new
  March record high temperatures a good bet for the plains
  Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

- Record high temperatures and low humidity levels will sustain
  prolonged high fire danger for portions of the plains today and
  Wednesday, then across much of the forecast area Thursday
  through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The forecast continues to indicate well above normal record
warmth, no precipitation and critical fire weather conditions for
the next several days.

West and northwesterly low level winds are in place across much of
the forecast area at this time. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are noted
across the northern border plains with 10 to 20 mph elsewhere. The
light snow over the higher elevations is over.

Models keep a strong upper high centered over the southwestern U.S.
through Friday and even further out into the weekend.  For our
forecast area, models have fairly strong north-northwesterly flow
aloft for the CWA today through Wednesday night. From Thursday
through Friday, speeds decrease at jet level and the direction is
more due northwesterly. The QG Omega fields have benign synoptic
scale energy for the CWA through Friday.

For moisture, cross sections just show a tad in the upper levels for
the next four days.  There is no precipitation progged on the QPF
fields through Friday.

For temperatures, 850mb, 700mb and thickness fields all show
readings to set new daily record highs Thursday, Friday and
Saturday with low to mid 80s all three days. It still looks likely
that Denver will see a new all-time March high temperature as
well; one or even two of those days. Denver`s record high reading
for March is 84 degrees. It was set back on March 26, 1971.

All the heat and low humidity levels will make elevated and
critical fire weather conditions.

For the later days, Saturday through Tuesday, models continue to
show the upper ridge center to weaken and push southward into Mexico
Saturday night and Sunday.  There looks to be flat upper ridging for
the forecast area all four days.  A weak cold front is still progged
to push into the CWA Saturday night, with Sunday`s highs cooling
into the 60s over the plains. Readings warm right back up with mid
70s over the plains by Tuesday.  There may be enough moisture in the
westerly flow for light scattered snow showers over the high
mountains Sunday through Tuesday

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 545 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period. The much
anticipated gusty NW winds finally made their way down to the
surface late this afternoon/early evening. These should continue
through sunset when mixing will slacken. There haven`t been any
significant changes to the forecast for this package, outside of
pushing back the start of drainage winds to set in by a few hours,
which is expected sometime between 6-8Z tonight at KDEN/KAPA.
KBJC may keep some version of the current winds through the
overnight hours (28014G24KT), with some slackening of wind speeds
between 4-6Z, but hi-res guidance suggests potential for light and
variable winds between 4-8Z. Will keep a TEMPO going for the 4-8Z
time frame to account for the westerly winds persisting.

Wednesday will see similar conditions to what we experienced
today. Drainage winds should gradually transition to the SW to WNW,
increasing in speeds as daytime heating intensifies. Daytime
mixing will bring gusts between 20-25 kts down to the surface
beginning in the early afternoon, increasing to 25-30 kts under
the most efficient mixing in the later afternoon hours. Should see
a gradual turn towards drainage once again in the evening, with
winds decreasing after sunset. No ceiling issues are expected.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Will leave the Red Flag Warning going over the northern and
northeastern plains until early evening. Current wind gusts are
strong enough across the norther border zones to meet the Red Flag
criteria.

For Wednesday will go with another Red Flag Warning for most of the
plains, with the exception of the southern tier of zones.  Humidity
levels will drop into the 8-13 percent range during the afternoon
hours.  Wind gusts will be marginal in some areas, but close enough
with the dryness of the fuels in mind across those areas.

Concerning the foothills, fuels are not yet at critical levels for
widespread fire growth in those areas according to latest data
from land managers.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ238-242>244-
248>251.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ238>240-
242>245-248>251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...9
FIRE WEATHER...66

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion