808
FXUS65 KBOU 070603
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1203 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Limited, mainly alpine pops this afternoon and Wednesday
  afternoon.

- Higher chances for late day pops (30-70%) across much of the
  forecast area both Thursday and Friday.

- Elevated to fire weather conditions over the plains, foothills
  and mountains parks Wednesday afternoon.

- Unsettled weather pattern Saturday through Tuesday with decent
  chances of precipitation across the CWA.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Weak east and northeasterly winds continue in place over the plains
at this hour. Models keep the weak upslope going all night with
no drainage winds expected. There are a few light showers over the
eastern border area currently, but not sure if any precipitation
is hitting the ground? Current temperatures are in the mid 30s to
lower 40s across all the plains. Skies will continue to be mostly
cloudy for the CWA overnight with weak upper troughing to move
across into Tuesday morning.

Models have the flow aloft going northwesterly by this afternoon and
continuing into Wednesday night. Then, 40-50 knot zonal jet level
flow is in place through Friday morning. By later Friday,
southwesterly flow aloft commences ahead of West Coast troughing.
The QG Omega fields show very weak synoptic scale energy from
Tuesday trough Friday for the CWA. Thickness grids point to a weak
cold front getting into the northeast corner Wednesday afternoon
then across the rest of the plains Wednesday overnight. There
looks to be another cold front Thursday overnight. That one looks
a tad stronger than Wednesday night`s.

For moisture, there is a lot in the mid and upper levels overnight
tonight into Tuesday morning. There looks to be enough for some
20-40% pops this afternoon mainly for the mountains, foothills and
Palmer Ridge. Moisture is pretty limited on Wednesday now
warranting only 10-30% pops by afternoon for the CWA. By Thursday,
moisture increases and there is enough instability for 30-60%
pops during the afternoon and evening for most of the forecast
area. Friday has even better looking moisture with similar
instability so will go with 40-70% late day pops.

There will be elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon
with the humidity levels dropping into the 13-20 percent range
over the western and southern plains, and the high mountain parks.
Wind speeds are not very strong however, so no highlights.

For temperatures, highs will continue to be above seasonal normals
all four days. Tuesday`s will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s over
the plains. Wednesday and Thursday`s highs will be in the lower
to mid 70s for the plains with Friday`s highs cooling down into
the 60s.

For the later days, Saturday through Tuesday, moist southwesterly
flow aloft is progged on Saturday and Sunday with a weakening upper
trough/closed low over the southwestern Unites States pushing east-
northeastward into Colorado by Sunday afternoon. Another upper low
and trough takes a similar track for Monday and Tuesday. Models
continue to show pretty decent moisture in the southwesterly flow
aloft for this time of year and they point to a fairly wet period
with temperatures remaining above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A weak/diffuse cyclone is evident from observations across the
metro, with stronger easterly flow located east of the terminals.
That pattern should persist through most of the overnight hours,
with the cyclone eventually becoming a little better defined later
tonight into Tuesday morning. Biggest question is if any stratus
does manage to develop. Most CAMs do get low cloud cover to the
north/east of DEN but are fairly adamant that the only cloud cover
tomorrow morning will be a BKN deck above 12kft AGL. Did leave the
TEMPO in for DEN but will likely make some adjustments overnight.

Won`t see a significant deviation in the wind patterns on Tuesday
with a generally easterly flow through most of the day. Main
concern will be some isolated or widely scattered high based
showers. DCAPE values do eventually exceed 1000 J/kg so a few
gusts of 30kt seems plausible. I suspect overall coverage will be
fairly low and so the TEMPO for gusts was reverted to a PROB30 for
gusty -SHRA (although most of this will be virga).

Drainage winds are expected to kick in a little earlier than
normal Tuesday evening, perhaps as early as 01-02z. Guidance is
fairly bullish on a period of stronger drainage flow in the
evening with a slow weakening trend overnight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...Hiris

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion