624
FXUS65 KBOU 201926
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1226 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to briefly moderate snowfall expected across the mountains
  through late this evening.

- Scattered light snow showers across the I-25 Corridor and
  plains this afternoon into the early evening.

- Dry most of the weekend into early next week. Chilly start to
  the weekend, but a strong warming trend Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1207 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

A shortwave trough is moving through aloft today, bringing
widespread snow to the mountains and scattered light snow to the
plains. As the shortwave continues eastward this afternoon, snow
chances will increase for the plains, with the best chance for
snow between 3PM and 8PM today. Once we go into the late evening,
precip chances will dwindle for the plains and will eventually
decrease in the mountains overnight. Higher terrain could pick up
an additional 1 to 5 inches with this activity today. For the
plains, snow amounts are a bit more difficult. The most likely
snow amounts for the plains this afternoon are a trace to an inch
of snow. However some areas could see higher amounts depending on
the track of the surface low. Looking at surface obs early this
afternoon, the low looks to be just to the east of Denver. The
circulation around this low will change the potential for upslope
winds and weak surface convergence, impacting potential snow
amounts. Right now, it looks like the best potential for the
higher snow amounts (1+ inches) will be in areas near Lincoln
County.

After today, the weather should quiet down for a bit. The surface
low from today will move out of the area, but a second low is
expected to move in from the northeast bringing a cold front
through portions of the plains tomorrow. The front should move
through early Saturday morning, turning winds to the northwest
behind it on the eastern plains. Winds will be breezy following
the front, with winds sustained around 15 to 25mph with gusts
around 30 to 40mph. Winds will remain breezy across the northeast
plains of Colorado through the mid to late afternoon Saturday.

The upper level trough will move off to the east this weekend and
upper level ridging will build in behind it. Temperatures will
warm into Tuesday and conditions will remain dry. Forecast highs
for Tuesday will be around record values for Denver. Our current
forecast has highs around 70 to 72 for Denver and the current
record for February 24th is 71 degrees. An upper level shortwave
will approach the area Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture will
increase in the mountains ahead of this system. This moisture combined
with potential lift from the shortwave and some orographic lift
will bring back snow chances for the mountains. In the plains, a
front is forecast to move through northeast Colorado sometime
Wednesday into Thursday. Models are bouncing back and forth on how
early they want to bring the front in, ranging anywhere from
Wednesday morning to overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Post
frontal winds will increase out of the northwest. Aloft a 50+ kt
700mb jet will follow the front. If we end up seeing the earlier
front timing, where afternoon mixing would allow some of those
stronger winds to reach the surface, we could see strong wind
gusts in the plains. However, if the front is a little later and
the stronger winds aloft don`t coincide with afternoon mixing,
it`ll be much harder for those strong winds to make it to the
surface (it will still be breezy, just not as bad). Temperatures
behind the front will be a bit cooler, with highs still above
normal but not quite to record levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1039 AM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a robust shortwave trough over western
Colorado which will provide healthy QG ascent across our forecast
area through the afternoon. Ceilings have already been lower than
forecast at most terminals and the trend of lower ceilings than
previously forecast will likely continue. The strong forcing will
likely spread high coverage (80% of area) of snow showers across
the Denver metro this afternoon. When some of the more intense
snow showers move over a terminal, the visibility could drop to 1
SM or slightly lower. Ceilings will be between 800-1,500 feet with
these snow showers. Some blowing and drifting of snow could keep
visibility around 1-2SM through around 01Z this evening as the
main snow showers leave the area. Once the shortwave departs the
area, snow showers will quickly come to an end around 01-02Z.
Ceilings will dissipate around 04Z with VFR conditions returning
the rest of the TAF period.

Otherwise, winds will maintain a northerly component for the
majority of the afternoon and evening. Gusts could reach 22 knots
this evening with the stronger snow showers. Winds will relax
later in the evening and turn towards drainage overnight. Winds
will be very light during the day Saturday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...Danielson

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion