772
FXUS65 KBOU 011813
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1213 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions will be present in South Park,
  the southern foothills, and the Palmer Divide today due to
  warm, dry and windy conditions.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
  Thursday and Friday especially along and south of I-70.

- There will be very limited coverage of showers and storms
  Wednesday and Thursday with the best chance over the far
  northeast corner of Colorado.

- Near normal temperatures with scattered showers and storms on
  July 4th.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The upper level pattern of a weak longwave trough over the western
US and an anomalously strong ridge over the eastern US will
continue through Saturday. In-between these features,
southwesterly flow aloft is expected over Colorado each day. This
will lead to multiple days of elevated to critical fire weather
conditions and an isolated storm chance nearly every
afternoon/evening. The fire weather conditions are discussed in
the fire weather section below.

Going day by day, there will be a shortwave trough that departs
Colorado early this morning leaving slight subsidence and ridging
behind. There will be very minimal shower and storm activity
during the afternoon due to the lack of instability. This evening
and later tonight, better instability advects westward into
Colorado with a slight shortwave trough moving in. Coverage of
showers and storms may increase during this time with areas to the
north and east of Fort Morgan seeing the best chances.

In a lot of ways, Thursday will be nearly a repeat of Wednesday.
There will be near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
with very limited coverage of showers and storms during the day.
Isolated coverage of showers and storms will develop in the
evening with the best chance near the Colorado/Nebraska border.

Friday looks to be the hottest day of this week with highs
reaching the mid 90s across the plains. This is due to increased
500 heights and temperatures as a slight ridge in the 500 mb flow
moves over our forecast area. With such dry conditions at the
surface and the lack of forcing and instability, almost no
showers will develop.

Models time a weak shortwave trough to come over northern Colorado
Saturday evening. At the same time, a weak surface low pressure
center will develop over southeast Colorado turning winds to the
northeast in northeast Colorado. This will increase moisture and
decrease the high temperatures down to near normal. Scattered
showers and storms are expected to form in the afternoon and
evening and a couple could be strong to severe. Those expecting to
view firework shows Saturday evening will have to keep an eye on
the forecast.

A broader ridge is expected to build over the western US Sunday
into next week. This will allow temperatures to increase well into
the 90s across the plains of Colorado. Afternoon showers and
storms will be possible during this period mainly over the higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1209 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Winds will be turning more E-NE through 20Z and then increase
further through 23Z as a Denver cyclone is expected to develop
south of KDEN. Peak gusts could hit 25-30 kts 23Z-02Z. First
signs of this cyclone are just now developing over western Douglas
County, so that gives us higher confidence (80%) that winds will
stay in that E-NE flow at KDEN through at least 00Z. However, KAPA
still has a 30-40% chance of VRB winds although there it appears
winds will turn more N-NNW on the back side of the cyclone closer
to 00Z. KDEN will then likely turn more Northerly toward 02Z as
cyclone pushes slowly eastward. KBJC will see a more E-NE-NNW
progression through 02Z. There is still a small chance (20%) that
virga develops over the airport for VRB gusty winds.

Additionally, we still expect enough smoke from southern Colorado
fires to impact operations during the late afternoon and evening.
Thus, IMC is likely due to limited slant range visibility 23Z-03Z.

Winds should turn more NW-WSW overnight, and then become VRB again
by 15-16Z Thursday. Expect a more diurnal E wind to develop by 18Z
Thursday but winds should be lighter than today (8-14 kts).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Southwest winds are expected to mix down to the surface across
South Park, the southern half of the southern foothills, and the
Palmer Divide this afternoon with gusts up to 35 mph. With
relative humidity reaching as low as 8 percent in these areas, a
Red Flag Warning was issued. The I-70 corridor mountains and the
northern portion of the southern foothills will likely have weaker
winds as a Denver cyclone that develops over southeast Denver
will help to counter the stronger southwesterly winds aloft.
Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch for zone 212 was canceled
although elevated conditions will still exist.

Similar conditions will exist on Thursday but with slightly less
wind across South Park, the southern foothills, and the Palmer
Divide. The winds will be marginal for any fire weather highlights
with gusts around 25 mph. Elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions are expected.

Friday looks to be the driest day of this week with relative
humidity dropping to 4 or 5 percent across the plains and southern
foothills. Winds will be on the lighter side so elevated fire
weather conditions are expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ214-216-241.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...20
FIRE WEATHER...Danielson

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion