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404 FXUS65 KBOU 150154 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 754 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer temperatures expected Tuesday through midweek. - Active weather pattern to end the week, starting with fire weather concerns Thursday, then potential for widespread precipitation Thursday night into Friday night. Mountain and foothills snow with potential travel impacts. Rain and snow on the plains, favoring the I-25 Corridor. && .UPDATE... Issued at 749 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025 It`s a quiet evening across the region, with a nearly cloudless sunset for most of our CWA. Quiescent conditions are forecast overnight tonight through most of Tuesday, and unsurprisingly there were very few updates needed to the previous forecast grids. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Clouds have finally cleared out across the plains this afternoon, with a patch still trying to burn off over the foothills. The clearing skies have allowed for temperatures to warm to the mid 50s, with 30s still holding on underneath the lingering cloud cover. Dry conditions will continue across the forecast area through tonight and Tuesday morning. Clear skies will allow for tonight`s overnight low temperatures to cool a few degrees over last night, with widespread 20s expected across the forecast area. As today`s WNW flow aloft turns westerly, compressional warming will aid in keeping areas along the base of the foothills and adjacent plains the warmest locations, where mid to upper 30s can be expected. For Tuesday, Colorado will be situated under broad upper-level ridging, with 700 mb temperatures 5 to 12 deg C warmer than today. Afternoon high temperatures will be roughly 8 to 13 degrees F above seasonal norms, with the plains seeing a return to the 70s, and 50s and 60s for the foothills and mountain valleys. By the afternoon, a shortwave is progged to traverse through the broad ridge across the southern Rockies. Mid and upper-level moisture will increase across the central mountains, spreading north and east through the afternoon. Steepening lapse rates and some weak QG ascent will create enough instability for some scattered high based afternoon showers to develop, mainly for the southern mountains and Palmer Divide, with a slight chance for the southern foothills and adjacent plains into the evening. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/... Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Scattered diurnal showers over the mountains mainly south of I-70 and Palmer Divide area will come to an end Tuesday evening as the airmass stabilizes. We could see a few sprinkles into Denver, but that`s about as far as they`d make it. Wednesday will see a continuation of the warming trend as the upper level ridge builds across the Central Rockies and High Plains. There`s good agreement that high temperatures will reach the upper 70s to near 80F over the plains. Again, isolated to scattered high based late day showers will be possible, this time favoring mountains and plains north of I-70 where slightly better moisture and weak instability is expected. The main concern for this forecast period then shifts toward Thursday through Saturday. Thursday will be a transition day as the next upper level trough digs into the Great Basin from the Northern Rockies. Southwest flow aloft increases ahead of that, so that means we`ll have to watch for critical fire weather conditions. That`s where quite a bit of uncertainty enters the picture, as a cold front is expected to push across the plains, but there is considerable uncertainty as to when it actually does. At this time, we think the models are generally a bit slow, so expectations would favor a frontal push during the early to mid afternoon. Thus, the highest likelihood of fire weather concerns will be areas to the south, or last affected by the front from Park County and the southern Foothills across the Palmer Divide area. Areas further north closer to the northern border would be more likely to see influences from the cold front and less concerning fire weather conditions. Behind the front, we`ll see shallow upslope develop, although the upslope strength will be determined by how far south and west the upper level trough develops. That`s where there`s considerable uncertainty in the evolution of the upper low, with some models including the AIFS and ICON taking it into the depths of the Mojave Desert, while the GFS/GEFS and even the operational 12Z EC closer to the UT/AZ border and 4 Corners region. Those eastern solutions would certainly be more favorable for more significant precipitation in/near the Front Range due to stronger upslope, while the farther south/west would mean much lighter precipitation. Whatever the case, almost all models would suggest temperatures cold enough for mostly snow at some point late Thursday night - Friday. Therefore, we trimmed down forecast temperatures a little closer to raw model guidance for this period. Meanwhile, the eastern plains will likely only see light if any precipitation, given the track of this next storm and lack of large scale synoptic or meaningful orographic support. Despite the differences in the model locations for the Friday - Friday night time frame, there is reasonable ensemble agreement the upper trough ejects east into the Central Plains by Sunday, taking most precipitation with it. Temperatures will moderate starting Sunday through early next week, but it`s springtime in the Rockies and an upper level trough/shortwaves are still around. Therefore, we`ll still have a chance/slight chance of showers each day until we can define the timing of any shortwaves a bit more. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/... Issued at 542 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025 VFR through the TAF period. Light winds this evening will gradually turn back towards the southeast, then settle on drainage later tonight. Winds will eventually turn back to the northeast/east tomorrow afternoon. There should be increasing mid/high cloud cover tomorrow afternoon, with perhaps a few high based showers near the Palmer Divide. Can`t rule out some gusty winds at the terminals, with the best chance of seeing -SHRA/variable gusts by APA with lower chances at DEN/BJC. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hiris SHORT TERM...Bonner LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Hiris