343
FXUS65 KBOU 102344
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
544 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and mainly dry weather this weekend.

- Isolated to scatteredshowers (15-35% coverage) and a couple
  weak storms over themountains this afternoon and Sunday
  afternoon. Any precipitation would be light.

- Pattern change next week, with cooler temperatures
  finallyarriving by Tuesday. Main precipitation chances hold off
  until at least late Tuesday, but uncertainty remains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Radar shows light showers across the higher terrain at this hour.
Today will continue our streak of above-average days with high
temperatures in the 80s for the plains. SW flow aloft has
increased over the last 24 hours. Thus, winds could be breezy in
our mountains and the eastern plains this afternoon. With relative
humidity dropping into the teens across the eastern plains, we
expect a few hours of elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions for those locations this afternoon. Some isolated to
scattered showers will continue to remain possible in the higher
terrain today, with a low (~10-20%) chance for these to push off
into the urban corridor and the adjacent plains. Little measurable
rainfall is expected and this would only be widely scattered in
the higher terrain. Some showers could continue through the
overnight for far western portions of our area including Jackson,
Grand, and Summit counties. Given increasing high-level cloud
cover overnight, it will be another unseasonably warm night with
another record warm minimum for the day possible. 57 degrees
(1881) is the record warm minimum for Sunday.

On Sunday, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel move into the
western US with any notable precipitation staying well to the west
of our forecast area. For our area, high temperatures should take a
slight dip, but will remain in the 80s for most of the plains.
Another round of isolated to scattered showers will be possible for
the high country, mainly west of the Continental Divide. The
forecast starts to become more uncertain by Monday. It is becoming
more likely that a backdoor cold front will stall somewhere
over/just north our northeastern counties. South of the front,
temperatures should stay in the upper 70s to near 80, but north of
the front, temperatures could drop into the low 70s. Regardless, we
expect this front to push through the area by Tuesday morning
bringing a "cool" down with highs into the upper 60s to low 70s on
the plains (except for our far southeastern counties) for Tuesday
afternoon- still a few degrees above average for this time of year.

There are still significant differences in the forecast across the
latest model suite starting Tuesday night through the end of the
week. The position/speed/strength of the trough and upper-level
low(s) remains uncertain. The ECMWF has trended slower and further
west over the last few runs while the GFS moves a somewhat weaker
low over or north of our area. In general, we expect PoPs to
increase starting late Tuesday and peak on Wednesday with Thursday
continuing to trend drier. Note that a vast majority of ensemble
members (~90%) give Denver some measurable rainfall, with amounts
generally under 1/2 inch. Some of the moisture associated with the
remnants of Hurricane Simon could be pulled into the flow aloft,
mainly affecting areas to our east. As snow levels drop through the
week and moisture increases, the mountains and high country (mainly
above 10,000 feet) could see a few inches of snow. Our northern
mountains in particular look most favorable.

From Thursday onward, the GFS progresses the upper-level low off to
the east with another low moving from Canada into the Great Lakes
region towards the end of the week and into the weekend. The ECMWF
keeps the upper-level low hung up over the Four Corners through the
end of the week. Regardless, high temperatures look to finally stay
near to below average through at least next Saturday with at least
some low PoPs in the mix.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 544 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Winds have shifted to the
north at DEN after the earlier northwest wind shift. Winds will
gradually weaken through 02Z, becoming variable as they start to
transition to a southerly drainage direction. Prevailing southerly
winds are expected by 05Z and will continue through the night and
into Sunday morning. Gusty southwest winds are expected to spread
northward off the Palmer Divide after 18Z, reaching DEN around
21Z. One thing to watch for is the development of a Denver
Cyclone. This is expected to produce northerly winds north of
Denver and could reach DEN towards 00Z Monday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MV
AVIATION...BM

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion