064
FXUS65 KBOU 241820
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1220 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today and Monday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
  expected during the afternoon and early evening hours today and
  Monday. Rainfall will be light.

- Remaining mild next week, with scattered afternoon and evening
  showers and storms expected most days.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 1223 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

For today, an upper level ridge will be over Colorado.
Temperatures will continue to warm with highs in the lower to mid
80s across northeast Colorado. Enough moisture will be present
under the ridge for isolated/scattered high-based showers. A few
weak storms are also possible. Outflow winds up to 30 mph and
light rainfall are expected with the showers/storms.

An upper level trough moves onto the southern California coast
tonight and early Monday. It then progresses east over the Desert
Southwest. This will nudge the ridge east of Colorado Monday with
southerly flow aloft prevailing. Temperatures will remain warm
with highs reaching the 80s across northeast Colorado. A few low
90s will be possible over the northeast plains. The southerly flow
aloft will help transport moisture into the area. Best moisture
will be over the mountains where scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible east of the mountains.

On Tuesday, a large upper level low moves southeast across the
Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin. The upper level trough
over the Desert Southwest will eject northeast across Colorado on
Tuesday. As it lifts northeastward, it will weaken. Moisture
still increases for Tuesday bringing numerous showers and
thunderstorms to the higher terrain with scattered showers and
storms for the Front Range and eastern plains later on Tuesday.
Temperatures will cool a little, with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s over northeast Colorado. For Wednesday through Saturday,
the upper level low stalls over the Great Basin on Wednesday and
Thursday. On Friday, models show the low weakens and lifts
northeast into the Northern Rockies. South to southwest flow aloft
will continue over Colorado with weak ridging possible over
eastern Colorado Thursday and Friday. Decent moisture is expected
to remain over eastern Colorado. The daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms will continue under this pattern, though the ridging
could limit the amount of storm activity Thursday and Friday.
Southwest flow aloft is expected for Saturday, though the
placement of shortwaves is still unclear. Temperatures Saturday
are expected to be near normal, with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR in place through the TAF period. Current winds across the
region are light and variable. Radar imagery shows a few light
showers are starting to develop over the Front Range, and some
virga is making its way east and off the foothills. Gusty winds
(20-25KT) may occur with any microbursts or outflows that develop
this evening, then winds will return to SW drainage by around 03Z
and persist through midday Monday.

Tomorrow`s overall pattern will be similar to today, starting out
with SW winds which will then become variable before showers begin
to initiate over the high terrain. Model soundings do suggest a more
unstable environment (~500 J/kg SBCAPE), which will lead to the
development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (30%
chance) starting around 19-21Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...AA

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion