164
FXUS65 KBOU 131956
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1256 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief shot of snow in the mountains late this afternoon and
  tonight with light rain showers over most of the plains. Winter
  Weather Advisory for the I-70 mountain corridor this afternoon
  and tonight.

- Dry with above normal temperatures over the weekend and into
  next week.

- A prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather
  conditions is expected starting Sunday over South Park, and
  spreading across the plains through mid-week. Tuesday may be a
  significant to extreme fire weather day.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1246 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Water vapor imagery shows broad ridging in place over the
Rockies and the central CONUS this morning, with a plume of mid and
upper-level Pacific moisture making its way into the mountains and
southeast corner of the state. This moisture is expected to increase
through the afternoon bringing a quick dose of new snowfall to the
mountains, favoring the Mosquito, Tenmile, and southern Gore Ranges
from this afternoon through Saturday morning. Latest CAMs show an
upward trend in QPF totals for this evening, where steep lapse
rates paired with the greatest QG forcings will support moderate
to heavy snowfall rates just in time for the evening mountain
commute. Expect winter driving conditions if headed to the
mountains beginning late this afternoon through tonight, with the
heaviest snowfall expected for the I-70 mountain corridor, US-285,
and US-40 between 5 PM and 11PM tonight. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for the aforementioned locations, where
accumulations between 4 and 8 inches are expected. Precipitation
is expected to push eastward off the higher terrain this evening,
diminishing as it moves across the plains. Expecting light rain
showers to spill onto the foothills and adjacent plains through
the evening, with some hearty QPF forecast for portions of the
Palmer Divide and Lincoln county, where totals nearing a half inch
will be possible (some of the latest CAMs are even trending up to
an inch). Snow levels are expected to stay around 7,000 to 7,500
feet, which would make for some mixed precipitation for the lower
foothills, but keeping precip strictly rain for the plains.
Showers will linger across portions of the eastern plains into
Saturday morning, moving east and out of the CWA by late morning.

Ridging begins to rebuild over the region through the day on
Saturday, bringing the ridge axis over Colorado by Sunday morning.
With the ridging will come an extended period of well above-normal
temperatures and dry conditions. While Saturday will see similar
temperatures to today`s, we will see them increase on Sunday and
again on Monday, where afternoon high temps are forecast to be in
the mid to upper 60s across the plains. Due to these anomalously
high temps and dry conditions, our concern shifts towards
elevated to critical fire weather conditions developing. By
Sunday afternoon, we will start to see some localized elevated
fire weather conditions for South Park and portions of the plains,
where RH values are forecast to drop into the teens. Fire weather
concerns will expand and increase for Monday as the ridge moves
eastward and increasing southwesterly flow moves over Colorado.
Gusty southwesterly winds are expected through the afternoon
coinciding with RH values dropping into the low to mid teens
across the Palmer Divide and northward into Morgan and southern
Weld Counties. The current forecast indicates that Tuesday will be
the main event of the week with regards to fire weather concerns.
With a tightening pressure gradient, westerly surface winds are
forecast to range from around 35 to 60 mph across the plains, with
gusts ranging from 50-70 mph across the foothills. With some
Pacific moisture embedded in the southwesterly flow on Tuesday, we
are expecting another dose of light to moderate snowfall for our
mountains, which may be the deciding factor as to how far west the
critical fire weather concerns will reach. Additionally, while
the current forecast is somewhat of an "average" as to what we
expect to happen, there is a chance that an approaching cold front
either hinders or helps to limit just how extreme fire weather
concerns become on Tuesday. After discussing the current state of
our fuels with our fire partners, and despite today`s expected
moisture, with the winds and low RH values, ingredients will be in
place for this to be an extreme fire weather event. For now, we
have decided to highlight the critical fire weather conditions
with a Fire Weather Watch for Monday and Tuesday, though this may
need to be extended into Wednesday (or longer) depending on how
things trend in the coming forecast packages.

With talk of all these winds, it should be mentioned that some areas
are likely to reach High Wind Warning criteria on Tuesday as well.
With the expected fire weather concerns being top messaging priority
today, this will be addressed in the coming forecast packages.

Beyond all the fire weather concerns, it does look like a more
active pattern with regards to mountain snowfall through the end of
the long term period, but the potential for anything significant
over the lower elevations is minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1047 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Light north winds will shift to northeast this afternoon. The main
impact for this TAF period will be rain showers and somewhat low
ceilings. The most likely time of rain is from 01Z to 06Z at APA
and BJC and 02-05Z at DEN. Visibility could be reduced to 5 SM and
ceilings could be reduced to 1,000-1,500 feet under these showers.
There is more confidence that rain showers will occur over BJC and
APA than DEN. Low ceilings around 1,000-2,000 feet will continue
through 10-12Z at BJC and APA. The low clouds may clear out
earlier at DEN perhaps between 08-10Z.

Once the clouds clear out late tonight or early Saturday morning,
VFR conditions will exist for the rest of the TAF. There is strong
enough of a pressure gradient that the winds will likely be
northwesterly for the majority of the morning before shifting the
northeast in the afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ034.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for COZ215-216-238>251.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for COZ216-240-241-244>247-249.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...Danielson

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion