656
FXUS65 KBOU 040518
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1018 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers will continue for the mountains through the
  overnight period. Scattered light snow showers will fall across
  the plains this evening, mainly over the Palmer Divide.

- Dry weather expected through Monday morning.

- Slightly above normal temperatures on Wednesday with well above
  normal temperatures Thursday through Monday.

- Pattern change likely next week which will lead to more normal
  temperatures and multiple chances of precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 1015 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

A shortwave trough is moving across northeast Colorado this
evening providing weak QG ascent. At the surface, somewhat moist
northerly flow is aiding in create scattered snow showers. The
Palmer Divide will see the majority of the snow showers that fall across
the plains tonight as the northerly flow is upslope flow there
while it is downslope for the South Platte River Valley. Eastern
Douglas and western Elbert Counties could receive up to an inch of
snow before the snow dissipates around midnight to 2AM. In the
mountains, the north-northwest flow has allowed some snow showers
to continue this evening. The northwest slopes of the Front Range
mountains could receive another inch before snow showers end
around 2-4AM.

The shortwave trough departs the area early Wednesday morning
leaving QG descent behind it. Dry air will move in and Wednesday
will be mostly sunny with slightly above normal temperatures.

A strong and broad ridge will move over the Intermountain West on
Thursday. This ridge has 500 mb heights over the Pacific
Northwest that are 2.5 sigma above normal. This strong ridge will
lead to a long period of dry and mild weather for our forecast
area. The plains will see highs in the 60s Thursday through
Monday. The only concern during this period will be elevated fire
weather conditions near the Cheyenne Ridge on Saturday and Monday
due to the mild, dry, and somewhat breezy conditions. Highlights
are not expected at this time but if the wind forecast increases
with gusts up to 35 mph, highlights could be needed.

There is still optimism for a pattern change beginning around
Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. This pattern change would usher
in a more zonal and progressive upper level pattern with multiple
shortwaves passing through Colorado. Global ensemble data
indicates the mountains of Colorado are likely to see multiple
snow events. Ensembles are less confident in precipitation
occurring over the plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 444 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Scattered light rain and snow showers had developed in the area
late this afternoon, but low level moisture is still lacking and
flow aloft is slightly west of due north, keeping any
precipitation minimized. Looking upstream, there are additional
convective showers in Wyoming drifting this way, but the chances
of any significant shower activity reducing visibility are quite
low given the dearth of moisture and weak downslope component.
Areas closer to KAPA and mainly the Palmer Divide would have a
higher chance, however, where the current flow and terrain
orientation supports weak upslope. We will keep the low Prob30 in
the forecast for light snow showers/flurries, but chance of any
accumulation is quite small, and at worst a very light dusting in
the grass. Precipitation potential winds down after 04Z, or 06Z at
the latest, as we become more subsident and stable as the jet
axis is expected to be passing just to our east by then. That
will also support clearing skies. Gusty north winds are expected
to diminish with loss of mixing, and then trend more NW-WSW
overnight with clearing skies and a light drainage component
offsetting the gradient winds. Hard to call winds tomorrow with
multiple and all light wind solutions less than 10 kts. At this
point, it really looks light and VRB once light drainage ceases
by 17Z, with only a 30-40% chance of NW-N dominating for anything
more than two to three hours.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...20

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion