724
FXUS65 KBOU 091700
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1100 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms Thursday,
  with the severe threat expanding further west to the Front
  Range.

- Prolonged period of hot temperatures arrive Saturday, lasting
  through at least Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances remain low during
  this period.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 132 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Moisture will remain elevated today, with dewpoints in the upper 40s
to potentially low 60s for the plains this afternoon. This moisture
and steep low to mid level lapse rates will lead to decent
instability today (MLCAPEs around 1000 to 1800 J/kg). The
instability combined with weak upslope from east/southeast surface
winds, a weak shortwave moving over the area, and 0-6 km shear
around 30 to 45kts will provide the necessary ingredients for
scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some of which could be
severe. The main severe hazards today will be large hail and
strong winds, however we could see a landspout form if a storm
develops near the DCVZ. There will also be the potential for
localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the plains.
Showers and storms are expected to form in the higher terrain and
foothills in the early afternoon before moving east across the
plains throughout the afternoon and evening.

The upper level ridging will begin to build towards the area on
Friday. Weak subsidence on the backside of today`s shortwave and
ahead of the upper level ridge will put a damper on our storm
chances for Friday. However, storm chances won`t go away
completely. Dewpoints are forecast to remain in the 40s and 50s
with decent instability. Shear looks to weaken slightly for the
area on Friday, especially in our northern counties which will
limit the severe potential. The main question that remains is
where the outflow boundaries will set up on Friday from the
convection on Thursday. Convergence along any residual boundaries
and the weak upslope flow could be enough to trigger some more
isolated convection Friday afternoon, but the severe threat will
be lower (in both intensity and coverage) compared to Thursday.

The upper level ridge will continue to build over the area for the
weekend. The center of the high will move northeast throughout the
weekend, parking over the NE/SD/IA area through the middle of next
week. Under this strong ridge, we`ll see large scale subsidence and
hot temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to reach into the 90s to
around 103 degrees in the plains for the first part of next week.
The warmest temperatures are forecast to be in the northern I-25
corridor area. Right now, we have Major Heat Risk for portions of
the urban corridor and I-25 corridor for Monday and Tuesday,
including Denver, Boulder, and the Fort Collins area. This means
there is a major risk for heat related illness in these areas,
especially for people without effective cooling and proper hydration.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds are
currently northeast at all terminals and should continue for the
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then develop
over the foothills in the next few hours and then trek east
throughout the afternoon. Have kept the TEMPO groups as is for all
TAF sites, with gusty VRB outflow winds of 35-40 kts possible.
Expect convection to end by 00Z, with outflow boundaries mainly
keeping winds from the east this evening. Tonight, a bit more
westerly wind is possible within the drainage flow.

For tomorrow, light northeasterly winds are expected again.
Despite a decrease in moisture, another round of isolated showers
are possible later in the afternoon. Have introduced a PROB30 for
this reason, with gusts of 25 kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...MAI

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion