982
FXUS65 KBOU 031912
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1212 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers will continue for the mountains through late
  this evening. Spotty virga across the plains this afternoon,
  with a chance for light snow this evening, mainly in the Palmer
  Divide.

- Breezy and slightly cooler through Wednesday, with warm and dry
  weather through the rest of the week.

- Pattern change likely next week, finally!

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 1204 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Snow has developed across portions of the front range today. Snow
showers are expected to continue into the late evening/early
overnight hours, with accumulations of generally around 1 to 4
inches for the higher elevations. In the plains, the front is
pushing southeast through our CWA. Behind the front, winds will turn
to the north/northwest and strengthen, with gusts around 20 to
35mph. Aloft, a northerly upper level jet is moving south into
Colorado. We will be in the left exit region of the jet through the
late evening/early overnight hours, providing weak lift for our
area. An upper level disturbance will also be moving through at mid
levels this afternoon and evening, providing another source of lift.
However, the lack of moisture will really hinder precipitation
chances for the plains today. Cross sections show a layer of dry air
at the surface for this afternoon. Precipitation has started to form
across portions of the plains as of the late morning, however much
of this is currently and will likely continue to evaporate before it
reaches the ground. As the precip evaporates, the dry layer will
moisten and erode, eventually letting some light precip make it to
the ground this evening. The best chance for any snow accumulation
today and tonight (other than the mountains) will be the Palmer
Divide, as northerly surface winds allow for some upslope. Snow
accumulations along the Palmer will generally be a trace to 1 inch.

The upper level trough will shift east on Wednesday as an upper high
builds over the West Coast. As we go into the second half of the
work week, the upper level ridging will progress east over our area.
This will lead to quiet weather and very above normal temperatures
for Thursday into Saturday. Highs will be around 20 degrees above
normal for the Denver area, with forecast temperatures only 5
degrees below the record high for Friday.

Models are hinting at a weak disturbance in the flow aloft Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, which could send a weak front through the
northeastern plains on Saturday. Precipitation chances remain low
with this system however due to the limited moisture and lack of
other forcings. The next decent chance for precipitation will be
next week. A potent upper level low is forecast to develop over the
southwestern U.S. at the end of this week. Ahead of this low,
south/southwest winds aloft will bring Pacific moisture into
Colorado. The increase in moisture and potential lift from a
shortwave will lead to low precipitation chances Monday into Tuesday
of next week (with better chances expected later on).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1051 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

A cold front is heading for the terminals, with the stronger
north-northwest winds expected by 19Z. By 21Z gusts are expected
in the 25-30 kt range, but generally from due north. At BJC, the
winds may be more NNW. Behind the front, it remains very dry but
we do expect some light precipitation to develop after 21Z. It may
not reach the ground. If it does, it will likely start out as
rain/sprinkles, but change over to snow by 00Z. With or without
snow reaching the ground, MVFR conditions are likely with the
virga. We are continuing to use PROB30 to highlight the light
precipitation, because of the low overall potential for precip
reaching the ground. After 03 or 04Z precipitation chances and
potential for MVFR CIGs drop significantly at DEN and BJC, and by
05-06Z at APA. Winds will also decrease significantly after 00Z,
but remain out of the north most of the night at DEN and APA. BJC
will probably be light and west tonight.

Expect VFR all day long tomorrow with light north winds from late
morning into the evening hours.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...Schlatter

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion