929
FXUS65 KBOU 160537
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1037 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected on
  Monday for much of the eastern plains and southern I-25
  corridor.

- Very windy with critical to extremely critical fire weather
  conditions possible Tuesday for the lower foothills eastward
  across all of the eastern Colorado plains.

- Additional fire weather concerns for elevated to critical fire
  weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday.

- Snow returns to the mountains early Tuesday. Snow and blowing
  snow will lead to travel impacts across most of the higher
  elevations beginning Tuesday. Additional mountain snow possible
  Wednesday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 155 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect this afternoon for breezy
winds and dry conditions. Winds should start to weaken around 4PM,
with RH increasing after sunset. The upper level ridging today will
stick around for Monday, leading to continued warm and dry
conditions. A cyclone looks to develop at the surface Monday
afternoon. To the south and southeast of the cyclone, breezy
south/southwest winds will develop and to the north of the
cyclone, winds will be much weaker. This will create a tight
gradient of winds and therefore, a short distance between
locations where fire weather will be critical and fire weather
concerns are much lower. The exact location of the cyclone
tomorrow will have a large impact on what locations experience RFW
criteria. And since it`s hard to predict it`s exact positioning,
some of the more borderline fire weather zones tomorrow (zones 240
and 244) were left in a Watch instead of being upgraded to an
RFW, like the rest of the watch area was.

Tuesday still appears to be the most impactful day of the week, with
critical to extreme fire weather conditions in the plains and winter
weather and strong winds in the mountains. Wind speeds on Tuesday
are still a little uncertain. We have high confidence in speeds
reaching our critical fire weather conditions threshold, but
slightly lower confidence in them reaching High Wind Warning
criteria (gusts greater than 58 mph in the plains and greater than
75 mph in the mountains). The global models have backed off a
little bit for winds Tuesday, but the high res models are starting
to come in for Tuesday afternoon and they are pretty enthusiastic
with the higher wind speeds. The high res models have 700mb winds
around 50kts to 60kts. With the mostly clear skies/solar heating,
unidirectional flow in the column, and decent lapse rates, we
should be able to mix some of the higher speeds to the surface.
The best chance for these higher gusts will be in our southeastern
counties. Because of this, we`ve issued a High Wind Watch for
Washington, Lincoln, and eastern portions of Elbert County for
Tuesday. There is still potential for wind gusts to reach that
High Wind criteria in the rest of the plains and higher mountain
elevations, however confidence is lower in these areas. For the
mountains, there is quite a bit of difference in the model wind
speeds on Tuesday. The global models are keeping winds much lower
than the high res models, with 700mb winds around 30kts at the
higher elevations vs the high res` 60kts at the higher elevations.
We went much closer to the high res guidance, with wind gusts in
the mountains around 50 to 70mph. It is worth noting that even
with this strong cross barrier flow on Tuesday, mountain wave
amplification is not expected, as all other ingredients are
seriously lacking.

Now for the better news about Tuesday...Snow enthusiasts rejoice!
Looks like we will finally be entering a much needed active and
wetter weather pattern for our mountain zones this forecast
period. There will be multiple shots at new mountain snowfall
accumulations starting late Monday night, as the current overhead
ridge moves eastward and is replaced with increasing southwesterly
flow. By late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, low pressure
moving across the Great Basin with a weak decaying atmospheric
river passing just to our south, will start to increase Pacific
moisture across the mountains. While the best moisture will remain
to our south, ensembles indicate PWAT values reaching around 200%
of normal across our higher elevations on Tuesday (just how far
east this moisture makes it off the terrain is still uncertain).
QG ascent strengthens through the morning, peaking in the
afternoon. By late morning, guidance shows SBCAPE values reaching
200 to 250 J/kg, with mid-level lapse rates steepening through the
afternoon as well. Potent frontogenesis is expected to slide
south across the forecast area by around 18Z (11AM). From an
ingredients standpoint, we will have all the makings of snow
squall potential across our mountains by late Tuesday morning. Mix
this with the expected high winds (discussed above), and it`s
looking like mountain travel will be very unpleasant to very
dangerous at times Tuesday morning and afternoon. Additionally,
Snow Squall Parameter values ranging from 7-11 will are expected
when instability is at its peak, leading to higher confidence in
their potential occurrence. Snowfall is expected to persist
across the mountains through the long term period, with multiple
lulls in heavier snowfall rates. With the aforementioned strong
winds in place, blowing snow will lead to visibility reductions
down to 1/4 mile at times. Any snow squall that passes may
introduce intense bursts of snow and treacherous travel conditions
that reduce visibilities even lower than 1/4 mile.

Snow will continue across the mountains on Wednesday, with potential
of becoming convective in nature for the afternoon when SBCAPE
values up to 250 J/kg and steepening mid-level lapse rates will be
in place once again. A resurgence in QG ascent is expected for
Wednesday afternoon/evening as a second shortwave drops out of the
PNW and across the Rockies. Weaker frontogenesis is expected to be
associated with this shortwave, but there will be an increase to
snowfall rates again for the afternoon and into the evening, with
the aforementioned expected increased instability. Decreasing wind
gusts are expected over Tuesday`s, but there will still be blowing
snow and reduced visibilities across the mountains. We have gone
ahead and issued a Winter Storm Warning for our western Jackson
County/Grand County zone from 11 PM Monday through 5 AM Thursday,
where the heaviest snowfall accumulations are expected (10-20
inches), and a Winter Weather Advisory for the rest of our mountain
zones above 9,000 feet (3-10 inches) from 11 PM Monday through 11 PM
Wednesday. Though snowfall amounts are not expected to be
significant, the expected impacts over this period will be.

On the plains, wednesday will remain breezy from the southwest,
leading to another day of fire weather concerns. The potential
critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday look to stay
primarily east of I-25 and south of I-70. The forecast after
Wednesday gets a little more uncertain. Models show a couple of
shortwaves moving near the area Wednesday into Thursday and Friday
into Saturday. These shortwaves will provide lift for additional
snow showers in the mountains and could send a cold front or two
into the area. There`s even a low chance for some precip across
the plains with these two shortwaves. Models are showing the
potential for some light snow in the plains Friday into Saturday.
The precip type will depend on the strength and southward
progression of the earlier fronts, which will impact the temps on
Friday and Saturday. As of early this afternoon, the NBM had
around a 10 to 15 degree spread in highs on Friday and Saturday
looking at the 25th to 75th percentiles. If we can get to the
lower end of the current spread, there is a low possibility for
winter weather. In the mountains, it has been tricky to sort out
the best way to handle the multiple waves of snow and blowing
snow (As discussed in the previous AFD), so there may end up
being additional winter highlights needed past Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1037 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR to persist through Monday and Monday night with bkn high
clouds most of the time. At DEN and APA, southerly drainage winds
will continue through mid Monday morning (15-16Z) and then
transition to the southeast and possibly strengthen. A Denver
cyclone is expected to form Monday afternoon. Wind forecast
confidence will be on the lower side because of this. The general
pattern in this setup is for southeast winds to develop before the
cyclone forms and until it passes east of the DEN. Winds on the
backside of the cyclone shift to the northwest to west, but exact
direction depends on the location of the cyclone. Winds 01-03Z,
then transition back to a southerly drainage direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

The RFW for our eastern counties today will go through 5PM, which
is when winds should weaken and RHs will increase above the
critical threshold. Tomorrow conditions will remain warm, dry,
and breezy. The FWA for tomorrow was upgraded to an RFW for the
Foothills, Palmer Divide, and eastern plains. Zones 240 and 244
were left in the Watch due to the uncertainty in the northward
extent of the stronger winds. The worst fire weather conditions of
the week will be Tuesday. Wind gusts will increase significantly
across the plains and mountains on Tuesday, with gusts up to 65
mph in the eastern plains and up to 65 to 75mph in the mountains.
RHs across the plains will drop into the 10 to 15% range with
potential for single digit RHs. Moisture will be higher in the
mountains, with the potential for heavy snow starting overnight
Monday into Tuesday. Elevated to critical fire weather will be
possible again on Wednesday, as the dry and breezy conditions
stick around. Low precip chances return to the plains late
Wednesday into Thursday. This combined with slightly higher
moisture will hopefully bring an end to these extended critical
fire weather conditions.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Thursday for
COZ031.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Monday to 11 PM MST Wednesday
for COZ033-034.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for COZ215-216-238>251.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Monday for COZ216-241-
245>247-249.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for COZ240-244.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
for COZ046-047-049.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9/AP
AVIATION...12
FIRE WEATHER...AP

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion