856
FXUS65 KBOU 061148
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
448 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow spreads from the high country over the lower elevations
  this morning. Difficult travel expected for mountains,
  foothills and Palmer Divide with moderate to heavy snow at
  times.

- Snow trends are increasing for metro Denver. Morning commuters
  should prepare for slick conditions. Possible refreeze this
  evening.

- Snow tapers off and ends late this afternoon/evening north to
  south.

- Milder and drier weather expected Saturday into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1251 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

An upper level trough will move across the area Fri into Fri night.
An upper level low will be over swrn CO by 12Z Fri and then move
ENE into nern CO by Fri aftn and then into west central NE by Fri
evening. QG fields still have favorable QG ascent affecting the
area thru Fri aftn and then weakening by Fri evening. Meanwhile,
cross-sections continue to show N or NNE low level flow thru the
aftn as a secondary front moves across the plains. Data from OOZ
models have increased QPF across most of the Plains, Palmer
Divide and srn Foothills as well as the Denver Metro area. As a
result, there appears to be an increasing chance of heavier snow
affecting portions of the Denver metro extending ene across
portions of the Plains. Latest data also has snow developing
by 10Z along the I-25 Corridor from Denver north to Fort Collins
which could impact the morning commute as heavier snow moves in
after 12z.

Based on current trends, have upgraded the southern Foothills to
a warning and have decided to issue an advisory for the Denver
metro due to potential impacts in the morning when heavier snow
may occur. Further east over the plains, heavier likely won`t
develop until midday/early aftn, so will hold off on an advisory
for now as not sure exactly where a heavier snow band may develop
to the north and northwest of the upper level low`s path.

By Friday night, snowfall should gradually diminish by early evening
along the front range but will continue over the northeast plains
thru mid evening.  Will also see snow continue in the I-70 mtn
corridor and srn Foothills thru mid evening before ending by
midnight.

Moving into Sat, will see drier air spread across the area in NW
flow aloft.  Biggest concern for Sat will be high temps, depending
on how much snow cover there is from the I-25 Corridor across the
plains.  Where snow cover exits highs may stay in the lower to mid
40`s while areas with less snow cover may reach the upper 40`s to
lower 50s.  Since at this point I don`t know what the snow cover may
look like, have kept the blended solution in for now which has
readings in the upper 40`s to lower 50s across the plains.

On Sun, mainly dry WNW flow aloft will be across the area as a sfc
lee trough begins to develop east of the mtns.  As a result, this
should lead to warmer temps as downslope low level flow develops,
with readings rising into the lower to mid 60`s over the plains.

For Mon and Tue, westerly flow aloft will be over the area with
downslope low level flow continuing.  This will allow for highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70`s over the plains.  In addition, will see
periods of gusty winds over the higher terrain as well.

By Wed, the flow aloft may become more WNW, with current data
only showing some higher level moisture embedded in the flow.
There will be a cool front moving across the plains Tue night into
Wed morning so aftn highs may drop back into the mid 50`s to
lower 60s across nern CO,

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/...
Issued at 448 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Snow will spread across the Denver metro TAF sites including KDEN
through 14Z. We having growing confidence that areas of moderate
snow will be developing shortly thereafter (15Z-17Z) as the low
levels saturate and moisture profiles deepen under increasing
synoptic and mesoscale lift. That snow is expected to continue of
near moderate intensity with visibility down to ~1/2SM at times and
Cigs/vertical visibility near 500 feet through 21Z, with a chance
it lasts a little longer than that near KAPA due to better
orographics in northerly flow. Lighter snow (visibility 1-3SM and
cigs 006-012) is then likely to linger til about 03-04Z before
cigs lift and skies clear rather quickly behind storm system.
Expect VFR conditions by 06Z-08Z, and mostly clear skies for
remainder of TAF period.

Depending on snow rates, the majority of the snow should melt on
runways, but during periods of heavy snow some slush/shallow snow
is certainly possible this morning. Increased solar insolation
middle of the day should keep runways mostly wet this afternoon,
but a 50-70% chance of refreeze mid evening with continuation of
light snow and colder temperatures dropping into the upper 20s.

Generally light north winds are prevailing to start this TAF, with
an expected increase with another surge of a cold front 16Z-17Z.
Then look for gusts averaging about 25 kts from almost due north
through at least 01Z, gradually diminishing as snow ends 03Z-04Z.
Then normal light drainage winds from the southwest are
anticipated to develop with those clearing skies after 06Z. Those
winds will also keep any fog threat well north of KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ030-
032-035-037.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ031.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ033-034-
036.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ039-
040-045.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...20

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion