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130 FXUS65 KBOU 021955 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1255 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and slightly cooler through Wednesday. - Quick-hitting light snow showers likely (60-70% chance) for the mountains starting Tuesday morning, and Palmer Divide Tuesday late afternoon, ending late Tuesday night. Lower chances (20-50%) elsewhere. Any accumulations will be light. - Warm and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week through the weekend. - Pattern change likely next week, finally! && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1255 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 Main concern for the short term will be a fast moving disturbance bringing a chance of light snow to the area. Cross sections show an increase in mid level moisture in northwest flow tonight, and further increase Tuesday as a weak disturbance but a 120-130 kt upper level jet streak race into northern Colorado. The flow turns more north/northwest in this period, which will be strong orographics. Unfortunately, moisture is limited. That said, I wouldn`t be surprised if a couple mountain slopes received at least a couple inches of snow level given the strong orographics. If only moisture was more abundant - seems to be the theme this season! In the lower elevations, it appears deep north/northwest flow will strengthen and persist Tuesday afternoon and night. Again, the biggest challenge will be to saturate the mid levels sufficiently for any chances of snow. Given the slight downslope component and weak downward QG forcing, it does not look favorable especially for the northern plains. However, the EC did offer up a little more hope with a slightly farther west jet streak. In addition, while deep northerly flow is not great for snow production over vast majority of our plains, it does offer up a pretty healthy upslope component for the Palmer Divide. Thus, we`ll keep higher PoPs there for late Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night. Any accumulation there looks light (less than 1"), although a few of the models would say a couple inches possible for higher end amounts if the jet streak does end up farther west. Areas from roughly Denver to the north and east will see lower chances of any snow and should mostly be flurries to 0.5" for any locations that do see it. Temperatures stay slightly cooler (but still a few degrees above normal) into Wednesday. Winds are expected to decrease and sunshine will return. For the extended period, we see high confidence in the return to much above normal temperatures for Thursday through the weekend with a blocking/high amplitude ridge shifting only slowly east across the Rocky Mountain region. High temperatures will likely (>70% chance) reach the 60s on the plains and I-25 Corridor during this period, with a low probability (20% chance) of hitting 70F by Friday. If anything changed it was the slight undercutting of the ridge by a weak disturbance this weekend. At this time, don`t think it would end up being more than just a slight cooldown and a couple showers for the mountains. For those waiting for some more meaningful precipitation or at least a chance of it, there are changes in the long term. It appears the blocking ridge that dominated the western U.S. over the last couple months is finally breaking down early next week. Most ensembles offer up a change in the weather with increasing chances of precipitation toward Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, possibly starting as early as Monday. That`s on the very edge of our 7 day forecast, but at least we`ll have a better opportunity to start building onto our minuscule Colorado snowpack. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1056 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 Winds are turning more northeasterly and increasing to 12G15-20kts as of 18Z and should stay that way or slight weakening through about 00Z. Then expect a gradual turn to more E-SE-SSW 00Z-06Z, although a 30% chance they could just go light and VRB 01Z-04Z before resuming the normal SSW drainage. Those SSW winds around 8-12 kts would then stick around through about 16Z Tuesday. By 18Z-20Z Tuesday, a stronger gradient and modest mixing would suggest a transition to NNW winds 15G25kts. Timing of course, would be in question regarding how much cloudiness would affect mixing, and also a slight (20% chance) of an anticyclone keeping winds lighter and VRB through Tuesday afternoon. VFR will persist, with only SCT-BKN mid level clouds through this TAF period. Slight lowering expected Tuesday afternoon but main threat for IMC would hold off until 00Z Wednesday or later along with a chance of light snow Tuesday night. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...20