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064 FXUS65 KBOU 241820 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1220 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today and Monday. - Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and early evening hours today and Monday. Rainfall will be light. - Remaining mild next week, with scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms expected most days. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 1223 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026 For today, an upper level ridge will be over Colorado. Temperatures will continue to warm with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. Enough moisture will be present under the ridge for isolated/scattered high-based showers. A few weak storms are also possible. Outflow winds up to 30 mph and light rainfall are expected with the showers/storms. An upper level trough moves onto the southern California coast tonight and early Monday. It then progresses east over the Desert Southwest. This will nudge the ridge east of Colorado Monday with southerly flow aloft prevailing. Temperatures will remain warm with highs reaching the 80s across northeast Colorado. A few low 90s will be possible over the northeast plains. The southerly flow aloft will help transport moisture into the area. Best moisture will be over the mountains where scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible east of the mountains. On Tuesday, a large upper level low moves southeast across the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin. The upper level trough over the Desert Southwest will eject northeast across Colorado on Tuesday. As it lifts northeastward, it will weaken. Moisture still increases for Tuesday bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms to the higher terrain with scattered showers and storms for the Front Range and eastern plains later on Tuesday. Temperatures will cool a little, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s over northeast Colorado. For Wednesday through Saturday, the upper level low stalls over the Great Basin on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, models show the low weakens and lifts northeast into the Northern Rockies. South to southwest flow aloft will continue over Colorado with weak ridging possible over eastern Colorado Thursday and Friday. Decent moisture is expected to remain over eastern Colorado. The daily chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue under this pattern, though the ridging could limit the amount of storm activity Thursday and Friday. Southwest flow aloft is expected for Saturday, though the placement of shortwaves is still unclear. Temperatures Saturday are expected to be near normal, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/... Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026 VFR in place through the TAF period. Current winds across the region are light and variable. Radar imagery shows a few light showers are starting to develop over the Front Range, and some virga is making its way east and off the foothills. Gusty winds (20-25KT) may occur with any microbursts or outflows that develop this evening, then winds will return to SW drainage by around 03Z and persist through midday Monday. Tomorrow`s overall pattern will be similar to today, starting out with SW winds which will then become variable before showers begin to initiate over the high terrain. Model soundings do suggest a more unstable environment (~500 J/kg SBCAPE), which will lead to the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (30% chance) starting around 19-21Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...AA