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682 FXUS65 KBOU 090811 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 211 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms (40-50%) for the northeastern plains on Saturday. - Summerlike warmth and drier weather next week, with highs in the 80s for the lower elevations. && .DISCUSSION /Through Friday/... Issued at 210 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026 One more day of scattered rain showers and possibly thunderstorms before a more quiet weather pattern takes over for next week. Saturday will be warm, with forecasted high temperatures up to the mid-to-high 70s for the plains, and 50s-60s for mountains and valleys. By mid-afternoon, there remains 40-50% chance for scattered convection across the northeastern plains due to a shortwave trekking across northern Colorado. Modeled Skew-T soundings favor high-based showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty outflow winds, given modest DCAPE values. In addition, there is a chance for small hail, as MUCAPE is expected to build through the afternoon, with decent shear in place. A cold front is progged to move through the forecast area Saturday evening, which will bring gusty northeast winds up to 30-40 mph at times. This front will also bring a brief chance (30-40% chance) of light rain showers to the foothills and the Denver metro. Aside from localized patchy fog in the morning, Sunday should see dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures, with forecasted highs in the mid-to-high 60s. By next week, an upper level ridge will build over the southwestern U.S. with warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions expected. Ensemble guidance continues to be in good agreement of temperatures reaching 10 to almost 20 degrees above seasonal values, with highs in the 80s (and even low 90s in the northeastern plains) across the plains Monday and through the weekend. Heat should peak on Wednesday, as the mid-level thermal ridge is progged over Colorado by that time. It is interesting to note that some GEFS and ECMWF ensemble solutions do have 89-91 dg F as the high temperature for KDEN on Wednesday. If we do get up to 90 dg F on Wednesday, that would tie our current high temperature record set in 1915. Besides the heat, elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday due to relative humidity values in the the low teens by the afternoon, with winds gusting up to 25-30 mph at times. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/... Issued at 1137 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026 VFR conditions expected through Saturday evening. Drainage flow has returned to DEN and APA and will continue through 14Z this morning, with winds generally ranging from 10-15 kts. For BJC, light winds (