224
FXUS65 KBOU 250549 CCA
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1149 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot this weekend with a few record highs possible.

- Heat Advisory for the I-25 Corridor both Saturday andSunday.

- Scattered  afternoon/evening thunderstorms this weekend, most
  numerous over the higher terrain.

- Increasing chances for thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 132 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The strong upper level high will continue to slowly build
northward today and Saturday.Water vapor satellite imagery and
ACARS soundings show the airmass has dried as the ridge nears with
precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 (in) across the Front
Range and eastern plains. These values are near to slightly above
normal. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
higher terrain this afternoon and earlyevening. The last few runs
of the HRRR model, including the 18Z run, have trended toward
scattered thunderstorms for areas north of Denver, thus increased
PoPs for this area.

The upper level ridge will be centered over the Central Rockies
this weekend, leading to hot temperatures. Highs are expected to
reach the upper 90s and lower 100s both days. A Heat Advisory is
already in effect. The record high for Denver on Saturday is 99
degrees and on Sunday it is 100 degrees. Both of these records
could be tied or broken. Moisture remains near to slightly above
normal this weekend. Thus, we`ll see scattered afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms, most numerous over the higher terrain.
Warm mid level temperatures will act to cap the airmass over the
far eastern plains, but some of these storms should survive as
they cross the urban corridor. Heavy rain and wind gusts up to 50
mph will be the main threats with the thunderstorms.

On Monday, the upper level high shifts south of Colorado and
remains south of Colorado through Wednesday. This will lead to an
increase in monsoonal moisture. Cloud cover will increase as well
and temperatures are expected to cool somewhat, with highs in the
upper 80s and 90s across northeast Colorado. Precipitable water
values will be 140 to 200 percent of normal Monday through
Wednesday leading to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds will be the
main threats.

For Thursday and Friday, the high is expected to be centered over
the Great Basin with a north to northwest flow aloft over
Colorado. Models still support scattered to numerous thunderstorms
as monsoonal moisture continues over the region. Though there
could be a slight decrease in moisture and storms late next week.
Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal with
highs in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The last of the decaying evening showers is producing enhanced SW
winds gusting to around 20 kts, which will gradually diminish
through 09Z and then hold through 15Z. Winds should then turn a
little more S-SE 15Z-18Z and increase with a few gusts to 20 kts
ahead of developing scattered showers and storms Saturday
afternoon. There is a relatively high confidence of gusty outflows
with sufficient shower/storm coverage - enough for VCTS/VCSH and
TEMPO VRB G30+ kts in the most likely time frame of 21Z-24Z.
There`s a slight chance (20%) that storms could begin as early as
20Z, and a 30% chance of some gusty outflows/light showers lasting
to around 04Z. Outside of showers and storms an enhanced
southerly wind component is expected after 00Z, with speeds of
10-14 kts with G20 kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ038>040-043.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ038>040-043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...20

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion