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844 FXUS65 KBOU 050552 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1052 PM MST Wed Feb 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures Thursday through Monday. - Elevated fire weather conditions expected on Saturday and Monday due to mild, dry, and breezy conditions. - Pattern change likely next week which will lead to more normal temperatures and multiple chances of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 1022 PM MST Wed Feb 4 2026 Water vapor imagery shows a large ridge aloft has moved over the western US. This anomalously strong ridge will dominate the weather in Colorado through Monday. Highs across the plains will be in the low to mid 60s each day which is roughly 20 degrees above normal. Record highs for Denver during this stretch are in the low 70s so it appears Denver will avoid record warmth although some days may get close. Otherwise, each day will have mostly sunny and dry conditions. The concern during this period will be elevated fire weather conditions on Saturday and Monday. Relative humidity will drop to between 10-18% across the plains each of those days. A weak shortwave trough on Saturday and an approaching shortwave trough on Monday will increase winds across the far northern plains of Colorado near the Cheyenne Ridge. If wind gusts are expected to increase beyond the current forecast, highlights could be warranted. Global models and their ensembles are still in agreement that a pattern change will take place on Tuesday of next week. A progressive pattern will allow many different shortwave troughs to move onshore over the California coast and progress eastward towards Colorado. The signal is still strong for multiple light snow events in the Colorado mountains. However, there is lower confidence in the plains receiving any precipitation. While these light snows in the mountains will help the drought, there is not a good signal for a bigger system that could bring enough precipitation to make up ground on our snowpack deficit. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/... Issued at 1012 PM MST Wed Feb 4 2026 VFR conditions thru the period. Drainage winds overnight will become light SSW or SW by 14z. By 20z winds will become light north and then turn light east by 23z and then southeast by 01z Thu evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Danielson AVIATION...RPK