050
FXUS65 KBOU 022117
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
217 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow likely (> 80% chance) for the mountains through most of
  today. Snow level falls to 9,000 to 9,500 feet this morning and
  down to 8,000 feet this afternoon.

- Mountain roads will become slippery in spots above 8,500 feet,
  especially through mountain passes.

- Scattered to numerous rain showers and cooler temperatures for
  the plains for today. A few snowflakes possible for the Palmer
  Divide on Monday night. Very windy plains this afternoon and
  tonight.

- Another chance for some rain and snow for the mountains on
  Wednesday bringing light precipitation amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 216 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

The cold front has passed through this morning, bringing widespread
northerly winds of 40-55 mph across the plains this morning and
early afternoon. With boundary layer winds remaining at 40-50 kts
through the rest of the day, surface wind gusts of 40-55 mph, with
localized gusts of 60-65 mph, will continue through the overnight
hours and possibly through early Tuesday morning. The I-25 Corridor
and Denver metro should remain sheltered from the strongest winds,
but still expect gusts of 20-30 mph periodically.

Current radar imagery shows ongoing snow showers across the high
terrain and rainfall/isolated thunderstorms over the plains.
Forecast remains generally on track, although have lowered expected
snowfall amounts for the mountains slightly, as they have struggled
to produce decent snowfall this morning. Observations have only
shown a dusting to 1" with localized amounts up to 2". However, we
should start seeing more snowfall this afternoon and tonight as the
best QG lift from the upper level low will move through. Overall,
expect 2-6" of total snowfall, with localized higher amounts up to
9" confined to the highest elevations. For the plains, scattered
rain showers will continue with generally 0.1-0.4" of QPF expected.
Upsloping will help the Palmer Divide receiver higher rainfall
amounts than Denver metro and northern plains (the northern I-25
Corridor unfortunately expected to remain mostly dry due to
downsloping from Cheyenne Ridge). However, CAMs have honed in on
portions of the eastern plains (eastern Adams, western Washington
and northern Lincoln counties area) receiving localized higher
amounts of rainfall due to upsloping, with DESI probabilities
showing a 40-50% of rainfall amounts >0.50" by Tuesday morning. In
addition, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that the
Palmer Divide and the aforementioned area could see rain/snow mix
tonight with the upslope enhancement and near-freezing overnight
temperatures. Modeled Skew-T soundings show a moist vertical profile
below O dg C, with a very shallow "warm" layer at the surface that
will likely melt most of the snowfall. Even if snow makes it to the
surface, warm ground temperatures should keep from any
accumulations.

Expect most of the mountain snow and rain showers across the plains
to be finished by Tuesday morning. However, we will still be breezy
behind the exiting system. Northerly wind gusts of 20-30 mph is
possible across the plains. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as
upper level ridging returns, with forecasted highs in the 50s across
the plains. By Wednesday, a weak upper level trough will race across
Colorado which will bring increased chances for mountain snow and
rain showers across the plains. As of right now, the track of the
system favors precipitation for our southern mountains (I-70
mountain corridor and south), however snowfall amounts will be
light.

Broad upper level ridging will allow near-average temperatures
through the weekend and mostly dry conditions. Ensemble solutions do
hint at an upper level low from the Pacific Northwest tracking
towards the northern Great Plains. As of right now, this system
looks to be too far northeast to bring precipitation to our forecast
area. However, with the increased flow aloft, we could see some
breezy winds across the eastern plains by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1110 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Current radar imagery shows rain showers scattered over the Denver
metro as well as the arrival of the breezier post-frontal northerly
winds. The strongest wind gusts (30-35KT) seem to be delayed by a
few hours, now arriving by mid afternoon at ~21Z. KBJC should be
more sheltered from the strongest winds to the east, with gusts up
to 25KT expected. Winds will remain northerly through the TAF
period at all airports, weakening (10-15KT speeds) by 01Z.
Ceilings are generally at the 5,000ft AGL level, dropping to as
low as 1,000-2,000 AGL at times with the light rain. We expect a
lull in rain showers later this afternoon before a second round of
showers pushes through the area this evening starting at ~03Z and
continuing through the early morning hours.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...AA

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion