482
FXUS65 KBOU 110000
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
600 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty north winds up to 50 mph over the plains this evening
  behind a cold front.

- Scattered snow showers for the mountains and rain/snow showers
  for the northern plains tonight. A slight chance across the
  Denver metro as well.

- Cooler on Wednesday with elevated to critical fire danger at
  lower elevations near the Wyoming border.

- Strong winds and critical fire weather concerns likely (>70%
  chance) Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Shallow layer of cold air has surged south and west this morning.
Making it as far west as the lower foothills (~7000 feet MSL).
Temperatures fell into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the Front
Range and into the 20s over the far northeast plains. Model
guidance did poor job capturing this, with model temperature 2-3
hour forecast off by 20 degrees in some locations. Not surprising,
there`s low confidence in the temperature forecast for the rest
of today. All the models show west winds mixing down and the
temperature shooting up into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the
Front Range. Not confident in this, though temperatures are
starting to recover. Lowered highs for today, especially across
the northeast plains where the colder air is likely to stay in
place. As far as the Red Flag Warning goes, plan on canceling it
soon unless we see stronger west winds start to spread down the
lower foothills and onto the plains.

Upper level trough centered near Yellowstone National Park will
continue to track southeastward. A cold front associated with this
system races south across the area this evening bringing gusty
north winds of 40 to 50 mph. Scattered showers are expected to
form behind it, most numerous over far northern Colorado where the
better lift will reside. For the northern mountains, up to 3
inches of snow will be possible. This system shifts east of the
region by Wednesday morning with only a few lingering flurries
possible in the mountains. It will be cooler Wednesday behind this
system with highs in the 50s over northeast Colorado.

Thursday through Saturday, west-northwest flow aloft will prevail
through this time range. Warm and dry conditions will occur under
this pattern. Highs reach the upper 60s to mid 70s, warmest on
Saturday. Relative humidities fall into the teens each afternoon.
Saturday will also be the driest day with lower teen and upper
single digit relative humidities expected. Flow aloft increases,
and is somewhat strong with winds aloft reaching 100 knots. The
main jet stays north of the region, but flow aloft is strong
enough to bring windy to very windy conditions at times. Strong
agreement among the models that a mountain wave forms Thursday and
Thursday night over the foothills. It`s unclear how far east these
strong winds spread. We`ve issued a High Wind Watch for the
foothills, and also the nearby lower elevations (Zones 38 and 39),
mainly for the area near the base of the foothills. Most models keep
the stronger winds in the foothills, but this event is just reaching
the HiRes model forecast period. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some
stronger winds right at the base of the foothills. For the rest of
the area, very windy conditions are expected over far northern
Colorado (near the Nebraska/Wyoming borders). Channels of gustier
winds are also expected across the plains. Decided to issue a Fire
Weather Watch for the lower elevations mainly north of I-70
Thursday.

Gusty winds will be possible Friday as well with Fire Weather
being a concern again. Appears Saturday will be the windiest day
ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Widespread windy
conditions are expected to develop, with high/strong winds a
possibility. This could result in a higher end Red Flag day.

Cold front and upper level trough track across the area Saturday
night. This will bring a chance for rain/snow to the lower
elevations with snow for the mountains. Northwest flow aloft will
prevail Sunday bringing cooler temperatures to the area. Snow may
continue in the mountains Sunday if enough moisture is present.
The mountain snow could even linger into Monday before an upper
level ridge takes hold of the weather. A warming trend begins
Monday with highs climbing into the 50s over northeast Colorado.
For Tuesday, the region sees the full effects of the upper level
ridge with temperatures climbing into the 70s across northeast
Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR is generally forecast through the TAF period, though there is
some potential for a brief reduction to MFVR later this
evening/early tonight. A well-advertised cold front is approaching
the CO/WY border and is expected to reach the terminals near
0200-0230z. Guidance has quickly become more bullish on the post-
frontal moisture, with several CAMs now producing measurable
precipitation between roughly 04-10z tonight, along with some
lower stratus. For now we`ve added a PROB30 for SHRASN and will
continue to monitor the post-frontal airmass as it pushes into
northern Colorado.

VFR should return by Wednesday morning as the airmass quickly
dries. Guidance generally keeps some sort of N/NNE for the
terminals during the day, before slowly turning back to drainage
Wednesday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A weak cold front has surged southwest across the urban corridor
and eastern plains, reaching about 7000 feet MSL in the northern
foothills. It appears the strong west to southwest winds just
above the cooler air will not surface, therefore plan on canceling
the Red Flag Warning for today. A cold front will bring a strong
wind shift to the north this evening with gusts of 40 to 50 mph as
the front pushes through. In addition to cooler temperatures and
increased moisture, scattered showers are expected to form behind
the front, most numerous over far northern Colorado. Cooler
conditions will prevail Wednesday behind the front, but breezy
north to northwest winds are expected over the northeast plains.

Thursday through Saturday is looking like a windy to very windy
period under a dry and mild west-northwest flow aloft. Very windy
conditions will be possible in and near the foothills as a
mountain wave is expected to form. These strong winds are expected
to be confined in/near the foothills, but windy conditions will
be possible across the plains north of I-70. Windy conditions
continue Friday and Saturday with strong winds a possibility again
on Saturday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday
night for COZ035-036.

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night for COZ038-039.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night for COZ238-239.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ240-242>245-248>251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...Hiris
FIRE WEATHER...12

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion