168
FXUS65 KBOU 300602
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1202 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow expected Thursday morning through Friday morning,
  with travel impacts likely for high mountain passes.

- Rain showers likely (>70% chance) for Urban Corridor and
  adjacent plains, with highest coverage of beneficial
  precipitation Thursday afternoon.

- Warmer and drier conditions expected for the weekend.

- Chance of showers returns early next week, with potential
  (50-60% chance) of more meaningful precipitation toward late
  Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 1158 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The unsettled stretch of weather this week continues... Current
radar imagery shows showers located near and south of Denver.
Showers will continue in this vicinity overnight, especially for
southern and eastern portions of the metro, with light snow possible
for the mountains. There will be a lull in the showers for the early
morning on Thursday due to some dry air intrusion affecting most of
the area, except for the Palmer Divide and southern Front Range
Mountains.

A 500 mb low will track over Baja California and far northern Mexico
on Thursday into Friday. The latest model trends are continuing to
keep this low to the south of the US-Mexico border for the duration
of the event, though we are expecting decent QG lift and
frontogenesis over our area. Additionally, we are expecting some
upslope flow with cross sections showing around 10 to 20 kt winds
and moderately deep moisture- up to 600 to 700 mb- enhancing QPF for
the Palmer Divide and southern Front Range Foothills. This will
result in showers and snow showers returning around midday Thursday
and lasting into the evening. The cloud cover and showers will keep
it feeling more like an early spring day with temperatures
struggling to make it out of the 40s across the Urban Corridor and
only reaching the 50s in the eastern plains.

The biggest uncertainty in the forecast still remains the QPF for
Thursday. Models have still been trending drier with this system,
especially for areas north and east of Denver. The southern Front
Range mountains (south of the I-70 corridor) and western areas of
the Palmer Divide are expected to see the highest QPF due to a
longer duration of more favorable upslope flow in these areas. These
areas could receive 0.50" to 0.75" QPF with isolated higher amounts
possible. Due to the aforementioned dry air, we expect a sharp
cutoff in QPF with locations north and east of a line from Fort
Collins to Greeley likely to only receive up to 0.20". The Denver
area should receive 0.20" to 0.40" with the higher amounts in the
western and southern portions of the metro.

In general, we expect 5 to 13 inches of snowfall in the mountains,
with the highest amounts south of I-70. Thus, a Winter Weather
Advisory will continue for those locations on Thursday and early
Friday morning. The snow level is expected to be near 6500-7000
feet. The Palmer Divide and foothills will receive snow, but
pavement temperatures will likely be too warm for the snow to
significantly affect travel. The greatest impacts will be confined
to the higher passes and higher elevations, especially on Thursday
afternoon and evening. Additionally, have lowered PoPs for Friday
due to more dry air moving in behind a front. Some light rain (snow
for the mountains) will remain possible on Friday, though precip
amounts will be very low. Friday will be a warmer day than Thursday
will high temperatures still about 10 degrees below average with
cloud cover still in place.

For the weekend, warmer and drier weather is expected as an upper
level ridge builds over the Rockies. Ensemble guidance continues to
be in good agreement of temperatures rising above seasonal normals
Saturday through Monday, with temperatures reaching up to the low
70s on Sunday and Monday.

Precipitation chances return to most of the forecast area as
guidance hones in on a stronger upper level shortwave trough
(possibly strengthening into a closed low) trekking across southern
Colorado Monday night into Tuesday. As of right now ensembles show
about a 50-60% chance for 24-hr QPF amounts of 0.50" or more for the
Front Range mountains and southern foothills, and 20-30% chance for
Denver and adjacent plains. Unfortunately for the northern and
northeastern plains, it looks like they will miss out on much of the
precipitation. However, will continue to monitor, as changes in the
track of the system will change precipitation chances for our area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/...
Issued at 1158 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

MVFR conditions will move back in tonight across the metro area
terminals, probably as soon as 10Z. Stratus and continued MVFR
conditions are expected all day long Thursday and into Thursday
night.  We have high confidence that the CIGs will remain MVFR, a
quick check of the NBM indicates about only a 10% chance of CIGs
dropping to IFR. It does not look like fog will occur tonight after
the last several runs of the CAMs, so that`s a bonus. Winds should
be light and generally out of the north at DEN, more WNW at APA and
BJC through 13Z.

After 13Z a weak push from the northeast should move across the
terminals, arriving at DEN and BJC first, then APA by 14Z.  CIGs
will likely drop to 020 or maybe a little lower, especially with any
rain that occurs.  Rain showers at DEN and BJC are at a 50-60%
chance of occurring after 15Z, a little higher at APA. In general
though, any rain that occurs may drop CIG as low as 010 and VIS
down to 5SM. During the afternoon is the best chance of rain, and
perhaps VIS may briefly drop to 3SM along with CIGs perhaps as low
as 010. There is plenty of uncertainty on the duration and
coverage of the rain through the afternoon and early evening
hours, which is why for the most part TEMPO groups are in the
TAFs. Wind will go from north at 8-12 kft at 13/14Z to northeast
8-12 kt after 18Z, then east at around 7-10 kts after 20-22Z. The
chance of rain diminishes rapidly after 00Z Friday, and light
winds out of the SW look most likely after 02Z. CIGs will remain
MVFR Thursday evening into Friday morning, probably between
015-030 well into Friday morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday
for COZ033-034-037.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI/MV
AVIATION...Schlatter

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion