298
FXUS65 KBOU 041110
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
410 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today, with near record temperatures expected.

- Elevated fire conditions South Park and at lower elevations near
  the Wyoming-Nebraska border on Tuesday.

- Generally quiet conditions through the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Current water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave over Utah,
with cloud cover increasing over Colorado as upper level moisture
is being advected into the region. At the surface, a Denver
cyclone has set up north of Denver, with the convergence zone just
east of the airport, allowing southeast winds to gust up to 35
mph across the eastern plains. These winds will slowly decrease
through the afternoon and into the evening. With the increased
cloud cover and ACARS soundings still showing a strong temperature
inversion in place, have lowered temperatures for today.

Tonight, flow aloft will increase as the upper level shortwave
treks across Wyoming. Cross-barrier flow will create windy
conditions across the ridgetops in the northern Front Range
mountains overnight and into tomorrow morning. Gusts up to 50 mph
is possible, with localized stronger winds as short-range models
do indicate stronger flow than the ensemble and long-range models.

Above normal temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday, as ridging
aloft recovers over Colorado. With continued cross-barrier flow on
Tuesday, gusty downslope winds will aid in compressional heating
across the plains. However, with the expected cloud cover and
700-mb temperatures between +8 and +10 C, temperatures should not
get as warm as they did on Monday. Expect temperatures in the
mid-to-upper 70s across the plains. If there`s less cloud cover
and stronger downslope winds, we could see slightly warmer
conditions. Denver`s record high temperature for tomorrow is 77
(set in 2020) and our current forecast is 75. Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible across the southern mountains and
northern plains due to low relative humidity values and wind gusts
up to 25 mph. With expected conditions to stay marginal, and only
localized briefly critical fire weather concerns, have opted out
of any fire weather highlights. A weak cold front Tuesday night
will bump temperatures slightly cooler on Wednesday.

A shortwave trough will trek across the northern United States on
Thursday. Increased west to northwest flow aloft will create windy
conditions across the higher terrain, with downsloping winds from
the Cheyenne Ridge affecting the northern and eastern plains
Thursday and into Friday. Guidance continues to indicate that the
majority of our forecast area will stay dry as this system passes.
The only exception will be our northern mountains, particularly Park
Range, as they have more favorable upslope enhancement. Over the
weekend, another shortwave will cross the region, but there are
discrepancies between ensemble solutions in terms of track and
intensity. However, models do agree that the only shot for
precipitation will be in the northern mountains again (NBM has ~20%
PoPs) due to favorable orographics. For the plains, a cold front
associated with this system will bring widespread strong northerly
winds. Cold air will be advected into the region, bringing our
temperatures back down to seasonal normals.

Ensemble guidance has continued to favor an upper level ridge
rebuilding over the western United States beginning of next week.
Above normal temperatures will return with no precipitation expected
for the mountains or plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 406 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

Winds were light S to SSW early this morning and will become light
and variable by 15z. By 20Z, winds will become WNW at BJC with NW
to N winds at APA and DIA.  By 02z winds may have a more westerly
direction at BJC and DIA with APA having light south winds. By
06Z winds may become light and variable in direction.  Meanwhile
VFR conditions will remain in place thru the period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion