554
FXUS65 KBOU 161743
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1043 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds (50 to 70 mph gusts) and critical fire weather
  conditions to prevail over northeast Colorado today. Red Flag
  Warnings have been extended into the western Denver metro,
  Palmer Divide and southern Lincoln county.

- Blowing dust will be a concern as well, with dangerous travel
  conditions and potential for Dust Advisory and/or Dust Storm
  Warning(s) as winds strengthen today.

- Colder today and Saturday, but some fire weather concerns linger
  into Saturday especially on the northeast plains.

- More tranquil weather Sunday onward. Still dry through much of
  the week ahead.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 327 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Forecast is consistent and the main message today remains strong,
gusty winds, high fire danger, and blowing dust with potential
for dangerous travel conditions over the northeast plains.

To start with, for a rarity as of late, we actually had some
stratus development behind last night`s blast of a cold front.
Even a few flurries were noted in a couple spots. That, however,
is already dissipating into a mid level cloud deck and further
erosion will occur as strong subsidence builds in this morning.
That will begin in earnest as the jet axis slides just to the
east, putting the Front Range into the right exit region of the
upper jet. Per last evening`s discussion, that puts the I-25
Corridor in stronger subsidence and stronger wind potential
(despite some blocking in NW flow), so the upgrade to the Red Flag
Warning for Boulder, western Denver suburbs, and Palmer Divide is
on track. While winds may "only" gust to around 50 mph here, the
rest of the northeast plains will likely gust to 60+ mph with a
few wind prone spots still having potential for gusts to 70 mph.
Plan views show a 500 mb wind core of 90-100 kts dropping across
the area today, with 600 mb wind core near 80 kts, and 700 mb wind
core of 55-65 kts! With the added subsidence, we appear to mix
just shy of 700 mb, and thus we expect widespread wind gusts to
reach 55 kts (~65 mph) across the plains. Some of our wind prone
areas (mountain peaks and northern I-25 Corridor north of
Wellington will almost certainly hit 70+ mph). Thus, all High Wind
Warnings look good and will remain in place.

With the recent dryness and high winds, blowing dust will be a
big concern today. We have all the ingredients for dust storms;
high (dry adiabatic) lapse rates in the lowest 2km, humidity down
into the teens, recent extreme dryness with poor soil moisture,
and lack of ground cover due to crop dormancy. The only limiting
factor at this point would be high level cloudiness which could
limit solar insolation and mixing slightly. However, even last
night`s front reduced visibility in some locales, and impacts
would be more pronounced today with daytime traffic loads and more
persistent winds with the above noted ingredients. Dust Storm
Warnings and/or Advisories are a distinct possibility from late
morning through much of the afternoon over the northeast plains,
with the highest risk in agricultural areas including portions of
I-70 and I-76 east and northeast of Denver.

Winds are expected to decrease by early evening, but that`s not
the end of it. It will stay gusty to some extent (30-40 mph) over
most of the plains east of I-25 overnight due to the persistent
gradient and only slight weakening of the flow aloft. Similar
gusty winds can be expected on Saturday (35-45 mph) over the
eastern plains, while the western suburbs of Denver should stay
more sheltered. That means another day of elevated to critical
fire weather conditions across the plains - see Fire Weather
Discussion for more details.

Much of next week continues to look dry. Mild days will be
interrupted by additional backdoor cold fronts in this pattern.
Maybe, just maybe, some (light) snow arrives in the mountains
toward Friday.

UPDATE Issued at 942 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

It`s not often that we see a strong cold front followed by
critical fire weather conditions the following day... but
unfortunately, that is the forecast here.

This evening`s cold front was a stronger than most guidance had
suggested, with just about everywhere in the lower elevations
seeing 45-55kt winds over the last couple of hours. The post
frontal airmass isn`t particularly moist, but there is enough
shallow moisture for some stratus along the base of the foothills
and closer to the Wyoming border. There could be a few light snow
showers but at this point anything more than a dusting looks
unlikely.

The bigger changes to the forecast come tomorrow. The early window
of overnight guidance is much more bullish developing strong winds
along and west of the I-25 corridor from Denver into the Palmer
Divide. While these areas typically remain well sheltered in NNW
flow aloft, the combination of strong QG subsidence, a belt of
90kt 500mb flow, and the nose or right exit region of an upper jet
streak would all favor some stronger winds developing there. While
the stronger winds should still set up along and northeast of a
Fort Collins to Limon line.

Finally, it`s hard to overlook a rather consistent signal from the
HRRR/RAP bringing in much drier air than originally anticipated.
That matches well with previous experience in these
downslope/strongly subsident regimes. This is also broadly
supported by newer runs of the RRFS which are typically a bit more
conservative with RH forecasts... and that thought, coupled with
the potential for stronger wind gusts in the south/west Denver
metro has led to an expansion of the Red Flag Warning into the
rest of our lower elevation zones for tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 233 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery showing a shortwave trough diving
south-southeast across eastern Montana. This wave races
southeastward helping to carve out large upper level low over the
Great Lakes Friday. This will leave Colorado under a strong north-
northwest flow aloft with a 120 knot jet overhead. A strong cold
front associated with the shortwave trough is racing south across
southern Montana and northern Wyoming. Wind speeds are 50 to 60
mph with the cold front passage. We earlier upgraded the High Wind
Watch to a Warning and moved up the timing to mid to late evening
to capture the stronger winds that will accompany the cold front.
The strong winds linger up to a couple hours behind the cold,
then we will see a lull in the stronger winds until Friday
morning. There`s a brief period after midnight where there may be
enough lift and moisture for a few snow showers. Any accumulation
is expected to be light. Subsidence and fierce drying occurs
Friday morning with relative humidity falling into the teens by
late morning and early afternoon. The subsidence and mostly clear
skies will help mix the stronger winds aloft down to the surface,
so we look on track to see 60 to 70 mph wind gusts across the
plains Friday. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF models show the trough axis
and thus the jet has shifted westward by a county or two. This
lines up with 12Z HRRR and the expansion of the High Wind Warning
southwestward. Because of the low relative humidity and strong
winds, upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for
much of northeast Colorado.

Winds slowly decrease mid to late afternoon Friday, but gusty
north winds linger into the overnight hours. The winds will help
keep the airmass mixed and keep temperatures from getting too
cold. However, the airmass has an arctic origin, so lows are
expected to be in the teens and single digits.

Saturday will see decreasing winds but overall similar dry and
windy conditions. Fire weather conditions may be critical across
the majority of the plains and this is discussed in the fire
weather section below.

A strong trough aloft will move over northeast Colorado with the
axis of the trough moving through our forecast area Saturday
morning. There will be strong subsident flow with very dry air
moving in on the backside of the departing trough. Wind gusts will
reach 45 mph across the plains with the highest values in Weld and
Washington Counties. Temperatures will be cool with highs in the
30s across the majority of the plains. Wind chills will be in the
low 20s to teens especially Saturday evening.

A brief ridge within the northwesterly flow will move across
Colorado on Sunday. This will lead to temperatures warming up
15-20 degrees above the high on Saturday. There will be mostly
sunny and dry conditions.

Another trough moves through on Monday leading to cooler and
windier conditions. There is such little moisture with these
systems that only very light snow will be possible in the
mountains with no impacts from this trough.

The flow aloft will become more zonal during the middle of next
work week leading to mild temperatures. The lack of moisture
continues so no precipitation is expected.

Ensembles by the following weekend have a very large spread with
temperatures. What is noteworthy about the ensembles is that
there could be very cold air coming into Colorado. There`s about a
20% chance that temperatures get below 0 F across our entire
forecast area the weekend of January 24-25.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1043 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

North winds are expected to persist through Saturday and DEN. The
strongest winds are expected this afternoon 20-23Z with gusts to 40
knots, which could produce blowing dust restrict visibility.
Winds decrease towards sunset, but stay gusty with gusts up to 35
knots. Late tonight and into early Saturday morning, winds could
briefly turn to a southwest drainage direction. This will be
short-lived as gusty north winds are expected to develop Saturday
morning. KBJC and KAPA will be slightly sheltered in NNW flow, but
still expect occasional gusts to 28-38kts during the peak of the
winds 20Z-23Z.

VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period, but a small
(30%) chance ceilings drop low enough for IMC after 00Z tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

The Red Flag Warning for today was expanded last evening to
include the rest of the I-25 Corridor including the western Denver
suburbs, Boulder, and the Palmer Divide as we now anticipated the
drier and windier conditions (just not as terribly windy) to
envelope those areas for the afternoon. Strong winds decrease
around sunset Friday, but breezy to windy conditions may linger
through the night in some places. Despite the colder temperatures,
a much drier airmass will mean critical fire weather conditions,
and potential for fast moving wildfires should any new fires
start.

On Saturday, it will stay colder, but a very dry but windy
pattern will remain over the forecast area. Relative humidity
will fall to 12-22%, and with gusts across the plains 35-45 mph,
critical fire weather conditions are possible. The driest airmass
is expected to reside over the northeast plains, so we`ve issued
a Fire Weather Watch for Zones 248>251.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ215-238-240-
242>251.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ038-
042>051.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ239-241.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for COZ248>251.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...12/Danielson
AVIATION...12
FIRE WEATHER...20/12/Danielson

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion