130
FXUS65 KBOU 021955
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1255 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and slightly cooler through Wednesday.

- Quick-hitting light snow showers likely (60-70% chance) for the
  mountains starting Tuesday morning, and Palmer Divide Tuesday
  late afternoon, ending late Tuesday night. Lower chances
  (20-50%) elsewhere. Any accumulations will be light.

- Warm and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week through
  the weekend.

- Pattern change likely next week, finally!

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 1255 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Main concern for the short term will be a fast moving disturbance
bringing a chance of light snow to the area. Cross sections show
an increase in mid level moisture in northwest flow tonight, and
further increase Tuesday as a weak disturbance but a 120-130 kt
upper level jet streak race into northern Colorado. The flow
turns more north/northwest in this period, which will be strong
orographics. Unfortunately, moisture is limited. That said, I
wouldn`t be surprised if a couple mountain slopes received at
least a couple inches of snow level given the strong orographics.
If only moisture was more abundant - seems to be the theme this
season! In the lower elevations, it appears deep north/northwest
flow will strengthen and persist Tuesday afternoon and night.
Again, the biggest challenge will be to saturate the mid levels
sufficiently for any chances of snow. Given the slight downslope
component and weak downward QG forcing, it does not look
favorable especially for the northern plains. However, the EC did
offer up a little more hope with a slightly farther west jet
streak. In addition, while deep northerly flow is not great for
snow production over vast majority of our plains, it does offer
up a pretty healthy upslope component for the Palmer Divide. Thus,
we`ll keep higher PoPs there for late Tuesday afternoon and
especially Tuesday night. Any accumulation there looks light
(less than 1"), although a few of the models would say a couple
inches possible for higher end amounts if the jet streak does end
up farther west. Areas from roughly Denver to the north and east
will see lower chances of any snow and should mostly be flurries
to 0.5" for any locations that do see it.

Temperatures stay slightly cooler (but still a few degrees above
normal) into Wednesday. Winds are expected to decrease and
sunshine will return.

For the extended period, we see high confidence in the return to
much above normal temperatures for Thursday through the weekend
with a blocking/high amplitude ridge shifting only slowly east
across the Rocky Mountain region. High temperatures will likely
(>70% chance) reach the 60s on the plains and I-25 Corridor
during this period, with a low probability (20% chance) of hitting
70F by Friday.

If anything changed it was the slight undercutting of the ridge
by a weak disturbance this weekend. At this time, don`t think it
would end up being more than just a slight cooldown and a couple
showers for the mountains.

For those waiting for some more meaningful precipitation or at
least a chance of it, there are changes in the long term. It
appears the blocking ridge that dominated the western U.S. over
the last couple months is finally breaking down early next week.
Most ensembles offer up a change in the weather with increasing
chances of precipitation toward Tuesday and Wednesday of next
week, possibly starting as early as Monday. That`s on the very
edge of our 7 day forecast, but at least we`ll have a better
opportunity to start building onto our minuscule Colorado
snowpack.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1056 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Winds are turning more northeasterly and increasing to 12G15-20kts
as of 18Z and should stay that way or slight weakening through
about 00Z. Then expect a gradual turn to more E-SE-SSW 00Z-06Z,
although a 30% chance they could just go light and VRB 01Z-04Z
before resuming the normal SSW drainage. Those SSW winds around
8-12 kts would then stick around through about 16Z Tuesday. By
18Z-20Z Tuesday, a stronger gradient and modest mixing would
suggest a transition to NNW winds 15G25kts. Timing of course,
would be in question regarding how much cloudiness would affect
mixing, and also a slight (20% chance) of an anticyclone keeping
winds lighter and VRB through Tuesday afternoon.

VFR will persist, with only SCT-BKN mid level clouds through this
TAF period. Slight lowering expected Tuesday afternoon but main
threat for IMC would hold off until 00Z Wednesday or later along
with a chance of light snow Tuesday night.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion