031
FXUS65 KBOU 141120
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
520 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summerlike warmth through Friday with isolated high based
  showers and thunderstorms.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions each day
  through Friday.

- Shower and storm chances will increase this weekend into early
  next week. Trends have been wetter and cooler, especially by
  late Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Current water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level shortwave
in Montana. As this system treks east today, flow aloft will turn
more westerly over Colorado with the ridge flattening. Models
indicate cross-barrier flow of 30-40 kts, mainly for northern
Colorado. Modeled Skew-T soundings show mixing heights around
10,000 ft, which will allow gusty winds to mix down to the
surface. With relative humidity values expected to drop to 8-13%
in the afternoon, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
likely for our northern plains where fuels have recently been
deemed critical. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 9
PM today for those areas. Portions of the northern mountains and
foothills may see localized elevated fire weather conditions,
however recent green- up will keep concerns from being widespread.

It will be another warm day across the forecast area despite
"cooler" air being advected into the region as the mid-level thermal
ridge shifts east of Colorado. Most of the plains will see
temperatures in the high 80s (and possibly low 90s in the eastern
plains). Most guidance keeps KDEN from tying/breaking the record
high temperature today (Forecast: 86F, Record: 87 set in 2013).
However, compressional heating from west/northwest winds in the
afternoon could warm us up slightly more.

Most of the forecast area should remain dry today. However, with
lingering mid-level moisture, we could see an isolated afternoon
shower/storm for the southern foothills and Palmer Divide area.
Gusty outflows will be the main threat if this occurs, given
DCAPE values of 1000-1300 J/kg.

Above normal temperatures likely on Friday, with highs reaching up
to the 80s again across the plains. Should be a mostly quiet day,
with a low chance (~20% chance) for weak afternoon virga
showers/thunderstorms, mainly for the southern portion of our
forecast area.

Temperatures should still be above normal over the weekend, however
model guidance has been trending cooler due to ensembles resolving
a stronger incoming upper level trough. There is still a bit of a
spread in max temperatures, especially for Saturday, but
confidence is increasing of highs in the upper 70s, rather than
the 80s as previously advertised. With a stronger upper level
trough, confidence is increasing of the forecast area seeing
better shower/thunderstorm coverage, with measurable precipitation
(including snow for elevations above 9,500-10,000 ft!) on Saturday
through Monday (best chance is Monday). Saturday could see a few
strong to severe thunderstorms, with decent instability in place.
As of right now, SPC has the plains under a marginal risk (1/5)
for severe weather, with the main threat being large hail. Some
uncertainty with temperatures on Monday, as deterministic
GFS/ECMWF and their AI counterparts showing 700 mb temperatures
anywhere from -4C to 4C. This is resulting in a large spread of
max temperatures in ensemble guidance. However, temperatures are
likely to range between high 50s to low 60s across the plains for
Monday and Tuesday, which will be a nice reprieve from the heat we
have been seeing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/...
Issued at 506 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Drainage flow of
10-15 kts will continue for the next few hours for DEN and APA
while BJC will continue to stay light and VRB through the morning.
Guidance is in good agreement of west/northwesterly winds taking
place by late morning (between 16Z-19Z), with speeds generally ranging
from 12-17 kts. A few gusts up to 20-25 kts is possible,
particularly in the mid-to-late afternoon/evening (between 21Z
and 01Z). There is a low chance (

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion