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FXUS65 KBOU 140605
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1205 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow expected Tuesday for the high mountains, with a good chance
  of light rain showers over the rest of the CWA into Tuesday
  evening.

- Critical fire weather conditions for southern lincoln county this
  afternoon.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions over the plains
  Thursday afternoon.

- Next system moves in Thursday night into Saturday morning with
  the promise of measurable precipitation for all the forecast
  area. Perhaps cold enough for snow on the plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 1159 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Current satellite pictures show the upper closed low centered
over the northwestern corner of Arizona at this hour. Currently,
there is decent convection over western Colorado, with even a few
lightning strikes over the Four Corners. A cold front has pushed
westward across all the plains this evening and is currently
moving up into the foothills with north and northeasterly winds
behind it. However, temperatures across the plains are still in
the 50s this late evening.

The upper trough is progged to move northeastward slowly across
Colorado Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  The best synoptic scale
energy moves across our CWA from 18Z to about 03Z late Tuesday. The
instability is weak according to the soundings. The best QPF with
the system starts late Tuesday morning in the mountains and goes
into early evening. Snowfall amounts above 9,500 feet could get
close to 10 inches total in a couple spots from now through
Tuesday evening, but the majority of the higher mountains would
only see 3-6 inches. It doesn`t warrant any highlights. Over the
plains, the system should bring 40-60% chances of rain showers
from 18Z to 06Z. The northern border plains could see 0.25 of rain
from it at best, with less over the rest of the low lands. Will
end the pops over the plains before sunrise Wednesday morning.
However, a few alpine showers may linger into Wednesday morning.
Temperatures should only reach the 60s for highs over the plains
today, warmest over the far eastern border.

There is weak upper ridging over the CWA Wednesday with a dry
airmass in place and temperatures still in the 60s over most of
the plains. Increasing southwesterly flow is expected Thursday
with a dry airmass and temperatures warming well into the 70s over
the plains. This will increase fire weather conditions
significantly by afternoon.

The southwesterly flow aloft continues Thursday night well into
Friday, with the next upper trough pushing across Colorado Friday
afternoon through Friday night.  Models still show this system to be
stronger with colder air available as well as more moisture and
measurable precipitation for all of the CWA Friday and Friday
night. Temperatures are warming a tad from previous models, but
snow is not out of the question for most areas. We can only hope
for some much needed measurable precipitation.

For the later days, Saturday through Tuesday, models show west-
northwesterly flow aloft behind the exiting trough on Saturday, then
upper ridging moves in from Saturday night and continues in place
through Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft moves in later Monday
through Tuesday as the next upper trough approaches from the west.
There may be lingering light showers over the mountains on
Saturday, but overall the 4 day period looks pretty dry with
temperatures warming up to above seasonal normals, once again,
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1159 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Weak frontal passage brought a shift to E-NE winds. Those winds
should attempt to become more SE 08Z-12Z in normal post-frontal
fashion, but also a 30-40% chance they just go light and VRB. If
they becoming light/VRB, we`d expect a return to a more E/SE
direction again toward 16Z due to brief diurnal heating before
convection starts to mess with the winds. Models are fairly
consistent showing showers developing over the Front Range
Foothills by 18Z and then pushing E-NE across the plains. Given
the dry sub-cloud layer, we expect a gusty W-NW outflow to
originate in the foothills and push east ahead of the showers.
That shift could reach the airports as early as 18Z or as late as
20Z and is reflected in the TAF. We`ll also see a brief shower or
two likely but again these will be relatively high based so only
light rain for the most part, and gusty VRB winds possible as
well. DCAPE is only about 400 J/kg so we`ll temper the VRB gusty
winds down to 30 kts and that may even be a little heavy handed.
The chance of any thunderstorms at the TAF sites is only 10-20%
given limited MLCAPE 

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion