364
FXUS65 KBOU 071742
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions possible
  across the mountains and high valleys through the weekend.

- Hot this weekend with highs reaching 95 to 105 across northeast
  Colorado. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Denver metro
  Saturday.

- Precipitation chances increase towards midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1254 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

An upper level high will be centered over the southwest part of
the country through Sunday. This will result in west-northwest
flow aloft across north central and northeast Colorado. This
pattern will keep wildfire smoke in the area for the foreseeable
future. For today, cross sections show a very dry airmass with
clear skies in place through the morning. High-based cumulus
clouds will develop this afternoon and then drift eastward.
Temperatures at 700mb are very close to yesterday`s, so expect
high temperatures similar to yesterday with mid to upper 90s
across the urban corridorand northeast plains. Airmass warms a
little Saturday, thus high temperatures will be warmer,
rangingfrom 97 to 105 across the urban corridor and northeast
plains. Winds will pick up over north central Colorado during the
afternoon, with gusts around 25 mph, which will elevate the fire
danger. Some moisture is able to infiltrate the upper level high
overhead Sunday, pushing precipitable water valuesclose to normal
over the higher terrain. This is expected to lead to isolated to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms. The storms will have difficulty
surviving off the higher terrain, so will keep the mention of
showers/storms west of I-25. Temperatures take a small step back
Sunday due to the increase in moisture and clouds.

Very warm temperatures are expected to continue Monday and
Tuesday. The ridge will weaken slightly and drift south a little.
Temperatures won`t be as hot but highs are still expected to be in
the mid to upper 90s across northeast Colorado. Moisture will
continue to slowly increase with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms expected each day. Best moisture will be over the
higher terrain and the bulk of the showers/storms will be found
there. Not much change from the GFS and ECMWF over the past 24
hours. The GFS shows the ridge remaining in place with warmer
temperatures and limited monsoonal moisture. The ECMWF weakens the
high and shows it sliding off to the southeast, which would bring
better monsoonal moisture beginning Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

HRRR Smoke continues to show smoke affecting all three terminals
throughout the TAF period and beyond. This could lead to slantwise
visibility issues at times. For today, winds will follow a
typical diurnal pattern with increasing cloud cover late in the
afternoon associated with storms in the high country. We expect
winds to stay under 15 kts this afternoon.

Winds will turn to drainage overnight and then to the northeast
by Saturday afternoon. Wind speeds and cloud cover will increase
by Saturday afternoon, as well. There is a low (~20%) chance of
virga showers affecting the terminals on Saturday afternoon, which
could lead to some gusty winds of at least 30 kts. The highest
confidence currently lies north of KDEN. Have left this out of
the TAF until there is more confidence at the terminals.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ039-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...MV

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion