716
FXUS65 KBOU 121812
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1112 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through Friday.

- Chances for rain and snow showers across the high country this
  weekend, with a few showers possible over the eastern plains.

- Another storm system possible early/mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 1020 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

We are still on track for warm and dry weather through the end of
the week as the axis of the upper level ridge shifts east over our
area Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, expect mostly clear skies,
with temperatures reaching mid-to-high 60s. However, Friday should
be slightly "cooler" (low/mid 60s) as cloud cover will increase
ahead of an incoming system.

An upper level shortwave will track across Colorado on Saturday
before becoming a closed low over the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle by
Sunday morning. This system will bring weak QG forcing and
limited moisture into the region, mainly allowing mountain snow to
fall Saturday and Sunday. Exactly how much snowfall is dependent
on the strength of the system and moisture availability, but model
trends have been consistent with light snow accumulations over
the weekend. This could lead to minor travel impacts to high
mountain passes as roads could become slick late Saturday and into
Sunday morning. As for the plains, model guidance has continued
to slowly back off on precipitation given the more southerly track
of the system and overall lack of moisture transport into the
region. This is congruent with the recent regional model outputs,
with Lincoln county having the best chance for measurable
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. Portions of the eastern
plains and Palmer Divide may still see a few light rain showers,
but chances are pretty low (10-20%).

This weekend will also see a nice cooldown compared to this past
week, with more seasonable temperatures arriving by Saturday. Expect
highs to be in the mid 50s across the plains both Saturday and
Sunday.

Monday and most of Tuesday should see a return of quiet weather as a
weak upper level ridge shifts into Colorado. This will allow for a
brief warm-up, but still expect temperatures in the high 50s,
possibly reaching 60 F in the Denver metro area.

Our next system is progged to arrive sometime Wednesday. However, it
is too soon to tell how exactly this disturbance will impact our
forecast area, as model guidance varies greatly this far out. As of
right now though, the mountains have a better chance receiving
rain/snow showers out of this system than the plains. Will be
keeping an eye on it. Looking farther out, ensembles favor the
active weather pattern continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...
Issued at 1049 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Variable
winds for most of the sites this morning will settle into an E/SE
flow over the next few hours. Winds will turn clockwise this
evening reaching drainage flow for all the TAF sites between
3-5z. Expect slightly enhanced drainage flow for KDEN around 12
kts for the evening. Another few hours of light and variable winds
in the morning before favoring a N/NE direction in the afternoon.
Breezy winds are expected to stay just east of KDEN and KAPA
Friday, but we will watch this closely to make sure no changes to
winds speeds are needed.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...Schnell

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion