676
FXUS65 KBOU 191138
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
438 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of snow and blowing snow in the mountains this morning
  will lead to continued travel impacts.

- Light accumulating snow of up to 2 inches over the eastern
  plains through mid morning. There is a small chance (10-30%) of
  heavier snow up to 6" near the Nebraska border.

- Next chance (60%) for snow across Denver & I-25 Corridor is
  Friday afternoon and Friday night.

- Dry most of the weekend into early next week. Chilly start to
  the weekend, but a strong warming trend Sunday - Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 438 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

Canceled the High Wind Warning for this morning. The 700mb low
traveled a little more than 100 miles farther south than models
were showing yesterday, which resulted in the better westerly flow
and subsidence being over the southern half of Colorado. Not
surprising, snow also ended up farther south with snow as far
south as the northeast side of the Palmer Divide. Up to 2
additional inches of snow will be possible under the heavier snow
showers early this morning over the plains.

Will also allow the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory
for the mountains to expire at 5 AM. Light snow will linger this
morning with locally up to 2 more inches, but most locations will
see less than an inch. Mountain roads will be slippery this morning,
so if traveling in the high country give yourself extra time and
expect snow covered roads and slow travel.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 1054 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

An upper level disturbance over nrn CO tonight will move
eastward and exit nern CO by mid to late morning on Thu.  This
feature has favorable QG ascent associated with it so there will be
light snow over the far nern plains thru the morning hours with an
additional inch or so of accumulation possible.  In the mtns, there
will be areas of light snow thru the aftn. Meanwhile, in and near
the foothills there will be gusty winds thru 12Z Thu with a few
gusts up to 75 mph in the normal windy areas.

By Fri, another disturbance will move across the area with another
favorable shot of QG ascent.  This feature will bring another round
of snow to the mtns.  At lower elevations, cross-sections show
shallow upslope flow developing by Fri aftn with enough moisture to
produce light snow into early Fri evening.  At this time,
accumulations look to be an inch or less in most areas.

For Sat and Sun, drier air in WNW flow aloft will move into the area
with no precip expected either day.  Highs both days will be near
seasonal levels.

By early next week, the flow aloft will become more zonal with only
some mid and higher level moisture embedded in the flow.  With
downslope low level flow developing, highs will be back above normal
for Mon and Tue.  In addition, will likely see gusty winds at times
over the higher terrain as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/...
Issued at 438 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

A cold front pushed through around midnight and brought north to
northeast winds. Northeast to east winds will continue this
morning. This front also increased low level moisture and low
clouds have formed at 1000-2000 feet. Have a tempo bkn015 for this
until 16Z.

Wind forecast for this afternoon is a tricky one. Models show steep
low level lapse rates and the Denver area mixing into stronger west
winds aloft. However, a lee side surface trough sets up somewhere
between the base of the foothills and the I-25 corridor. Usually the
models over mix the airmass and the cooler easterly winds undercut
the stronger west winds, which is what the TAF shows for DEN. After
00Z Friday, winds transition to the south to southeast through
06Z. A Denver cyclone likely forms 06-12Z Friday. Clouds move in
after 12Z Friday as the next storm system nears, with ceilings of
8000-12000 feet expected 14-18Z. There`s a 20-30 percent for
light and lower ceilings prior to 18Z. Ceilings continue to lower
after 18Z Friday with areas of light snow developing.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...12
DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...12

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion