450
FXUS65 KBOU 291950
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
150 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue today and Monday.

- Critical fire weather conditions for the Foothills and adjacent
  plains Monday.

- Cooler by Tuesday with snow in the mountains and a chance of
  precipitation over the plains.

- Potential for another system to impact the region by the end of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

High pressure aloft will continue to influence our weather pattern
for today and Monday. This will likely help us secure one of the top
2 warmest March`s on record for Denver. Zonal flow aloft and a
surface low pressure to our NE will lead to downslope winds this
afternoon. Temperatures will be near record highs for today, with
a forecast high of 80 degrees F this afternoon. The record for
today at DEN is 79 degrees F last set in 1967. There is a low
(10-20%) chance for high-based showers this afternoon, but the
chances are lower than yesterday afternoon. Any showers could
produce localized gusty outflow winds- around 25 to 35 mph. Little
to no precipitation is expected reach the ground. Lows for
tonight will be rather warm with the metro staying in the upper
40s and low 50s and the plains only reaching the mid 40s.

For Monday, high temperatures will be very similar to today and
will once again approach record highs. The record at DEN is 82
degrees F set in 2010. Our forecast for tomorrow is 80 degrees F.
A slightly stronger pressure gradient tomorrow will lead to wind
gusts in the metro between 20 mph and 30 mph with wind gusts up
to 40 mph in the Foothills. Dry and breezy conditions for
tomorrow warrant a RFW across the foothills and nearby plains from
11am to 8pm MDT. See the fire weather discussion for more
information.

Lows for Monday night will be a touch cooler than tonight. A cold
front will move through the area from north to south late Monday
into early Tuesday morning with some very light precipitation
possible especially across the plains. This will usher in a much-
needed pattern shift for the rest of the week.

Moisture will increase significantly throughout the column for
Tuesday and Wednesday, as southwest winds bring Pacific moisture in
aloft and temperatures cool at the surface behind the front. PWATs
look to be around 200% to 300% of normal for this time period.
Behind the front winds near the surface will initially be from
the north/northeast, turning east into the afternoon Tuesday.
Upslope flow with the northeast/easterly winds on Tuesday will
allow for precip chances across the plains, with the best chances
in the plains adjacent to the foothills and the Palmer. Winds on
Wednesday are a bit more uncertain, with some models keeping
easterly winds while others turn it more southeast. If we do end
up holding onto the easterly winds longer than currently forecast,
areas with the better upslope could see higher amounts. Late
Tuesday into Wednesday, there is potential for better upper level
support as better mid level QG ascent moves into the area, a
shortwave trough approaches, and we potentially sit in the left
exit region of a weaker upper level jet. For the mountains, we`re
looking at precip chances for much of Tuesday and Wednesday with
snow levels around 8000 to 8500ft. QPF amounts look decent with
many ensemble member hovering around half an inch of QPF for the
mountains for the Tuesday through early Thursday time period. For
the plains, the QPF varies more between models and ensemble
members. Right now, the most likely QPF for the plains ranges from
around a tenth to three tenths of liquid. However, there are a
few ensemble members hinting at potential for some higher amounts.
The NBM currently has a medium chance (30%-60%) for QPF exceeding
.3 inches for the plains west of I-25 and the Palmer, with lower
chances further east. The chance for snow in the plains during
this time is low due to the warm temperatures, however we could
see a few snow flakes mixed in at times. The best chance for snow
in the plains will be in northeast Colorado during the
overnight/early morning Wednesday and Thursday, where temperatures
will be much closer to freezing.

The upper level short wave will move off to the east by early
thursday. Winds will be breezy from the south Thursday afternoon,
bringing warmer air into the area. Temperatures will warm back above
normal for Thursday, with highs reaching into the mid 60s to mid
70s. This warm up however will be short lived as another trough
moves into the area from the northwest early Friday. Ahead of this
trough, a surface low is forecast to develop which will drag a
strong front through our forecast area early Friday. This front
will help drop temperatures into the mid 40s to mid 60s for the
plains Friday and the weekend. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty in the timing and positioning of the upper level
trough, which will impact our precip chances for Friday into the
weekend. Snow chances in the mountains look good during this time,
however precip chances for the plains are much more uncertain.
Ensemble members are about 50/50 on whether they want to bring
precip and potentially snow into the plains for Friday into
Saturday, but right now snow chances do not look promising for the
majority of the plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Winds should stay west-northwesterly early this afternoon at DIA,
then become more northwesterly by late afternoon.  Models have
southeasterlies in by around 00Z-01Z for a few hours this evening
before light drainage winds kick in by 06Z-07Z. I left the VCSH in
with some of the models continuing to show weak convection later
this afternoon.  Precipitation is not expected.  There will be no
ceiling issues.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Dry conditions will continue tomorrow, with RHs dropping into the
upper single digits to low teens in the afternoon across the
plains and Foothills. Stronger winds tomorrow will lead to
critical fire weather conditions, with wind gusts around 20 to 35
mph across the plains (strongest gusts near I-25 corridor) and
closer to 40 to 45 mph in the Foothills. A Red Flag Warning will
be in effect from 11am to 8pm MDT tomorrow for the Foothills and
adjacent plains. Areas further east will still have low RHs, but
winds will be more borderline, leading to elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions. A strong cold front will move
through overnight Monday into Tuesday, entering our northern most
counties around midnight then progressing south. Temperatures will
be much cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday with minimum RHs staying
above 30%, limiting fire weather conditions. Temperatures will
warm back up briefly for Thursday, which could lead to another day
of near critical fire weather conditions before another front
moves through early Friday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ215-216-
238>240-242-243.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP/MV
AVIATION...66
FIRE WEATHER...AP

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion