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265 FXUS65 KBOU 051749 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1149 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and unseasonably warm through at least Saturday, with record/near record warmth on Monday. - Isolated showers possible (15-30% chance) for the higher elevations Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitation, if any, will be highly localized. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1147 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Clear, sunny skies greet us this morning as we head into what should be our warmest day this week. The upper level ridge that`s been overhead the last couple days continues to sit over the Rockies, keeping subsidence and downsloping winds over the area. Thanks to warmer temperatures in the mid-levels (850-700mb) and those downsloping winds, temperatures today should reach into the upper 80s for much of the urban corridor and plains, with high temps possibly reaching into the low 90s for portions of the northern plains. The record high temperature for Denver on October 5 is 87F, and it`s likely (~70%) that we`ll at least tie that record today. Tomorrow`s temps will continue to trend above normal, though a few degrees cooler than today thanks to some expected cloud cover. A weak disturbance in the ridge Tuesday and Wednesday could bring the chance for isolated showers over the higher elevations in the afternoon both days, mainly in Park and Clear Creek Counties. The rest of the week should remain warm and dry, with temperatures staying about 10-15 degrees above normal through Saturday. As of the latest model guidance, Sunday should be when we start to cool back off, with a cooler, possibly wetter pattern settling in by Monday as an upper-level trough pushes into the region. While models are in fairly good agreement on the timing of this trough, there`s a lot of uncertainty as to how deep the trough becomes and how much moisture it pulls in, both of which will affect what weather impacts we see next Monday and Tuesday. Interestingly, the latest ECMWF runs have the remnants of what is currently Hurricane Rachel getting dragged to the northeast and pulled into the area along the downstream side of the trough. The GFS, on the other hand, keeps Hurricane Rachel on a northwesterly path, away from any interaction with the trough, which could mean we see less significant weather impacts associated with this system. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Southwest winds are currently holding at DEN but should become light (~6 kts) and variable within this hour. By 20Z/21Z, a more easterly wind component should arrive at all terminals with typical diurnal wind pattern this evening. Similarly to this morning, drainage winds may be slightly stronger, 12-15 kts, before light and variable winds return. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGS AVIATION...MAI