052
FXUS65 KBOU 250012
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
612 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm conditions expected through the week, with daily showers
  and a few thunderstorms expected most days in the
  afternoon/evening.

- Tuesday will bring windy conditions to the plains and potential
  for elevated fire weather conditions in areas that see little/no
  rain.

- Wednesday appears to be the most active day with more widespread
  shower and thunderstorm coverage.

- After somewhat of a lull Thursday, thunderstorm potential will
  increase again Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 1212 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Scattered showers dot the high country at this hour and will
continue through the afternoon, with development of isolated
thunderstorms as well given modest instability. This activity will
struggle to hold together in its attempt to exit the foothills,
encountering an only marginally unstable environment over the
urban corridor and essentially none farther east. Thus, expect
cells to gradually decay as they progress east through the lower
elevations, with plenty of virga and some light showers being most
numerous along and west of I-25.

A developing negatively tilted trough over the Desert SW will
force a transition to prevailing southerly flow for Monday and
consequently a modest increase in warm moist advection, enough to
provide for slightly unstable conditions by the afternoon across
the plains. High-based showers and a few thunderstorms will thus
become more likely for the lower elevations, although rainfall
amounts will be light and localized, with gusty outflows being the
more common feature considering the very steep low-level lapse
rates and warm surface temperatures into the mid 80`s to lower
90`s.

The south/southeast flow pattern is reinforced on Tuesday,
allowing for greater vapor transport into the region, seeing
precipitable water values climb to around 0.90". However, this
will be countered by a more stable airmass and a general lack of
forcing, limiting thunderstorm potential for the plains and also
rainfall amounts, with generally light scattered showers expected.
The mountains will be better positioned to benefit from the
pattern, with orographic lift boosting precipitation and bringing
wetting rain to most of the high country, especially north of
I-70. Increased cloud cover will moderate temperatures somewhat,
though we should still break 80F in the lower elevations. The
southerly winds will be quite pronounced over the plains in the
afternoon with gusts 35-45 mph, resulting in elevated fire weather
conditions for any areas that receive little to no rain.

A pronounced closed low is set to dominate the Great Basin region
starting Wednesday and stalling into Thursday, feeding continued
moisture into our area as precipitation chances peak Wednesday
when afternoon showers and thunderstorms look to be most
widespread. Coverage should dwindle some on Thursday with higher
pressure in place over eastern Colorado. Friday into Saturday, the
low is progged to quickly lift NE through the Intermountain West
as it merges with the broader flow pattern. Warm surface
temperatures will continue, but with cooling air aloft, we should
see some better destabilization and thus favorable conditions for
afternoon thunderstorm development across much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 609 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Current radar imagery shows a few high-based showers lingering over
the Denver metro area, as well as some accompanying gusty outflows
(25-30KT wind gusts) with a westerly component. Microburst activity
is expected to dwindle down by around 02Z this evening, and winds
will transition to lighter S-SW drainage flow for the night.

Winds will become light and variable for a brief period tomorrow
morning (16-18Z) before microburst and shower activity begins around
19Z. We have decided to include a TEMPO -TSRA for scattered showers
and likely some lightning (40% chance for a thunderstorm), with the
primary operational impact being outflows with winds gusting up to
35-40KT. Shower coverage will decrease by around 03Z Monday
evening and winds will likely stay southerly for a few hours
before transitioning to light southwest winds by midnight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...AA

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion